War drums, global anti-regime protests—and more
The Iranist for the week of February 20, 2025
Listen to my podcast interview with the Middle East Institute about Iran, where I reflect on my upbringing in Tehran and share my insights on the recent anti‑regime uprising
THE هفت/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:
۱/1 The drum beats of war
On February 13, President Donald Trump said regime change in Iran is “the best thing that could happen. For 47 years, they’ve been talking and talking and talking. In the meantime, we’ve lost a lot of lives.” (BBC News)
WHAT HAPPENED AT THE LATEST TALKS? On February 17, the United States and Iran held their second round of indirect talks in Geneva, Switzerland (New York Times). The US side was led by Special Envoy for the Middle East (and Russia issues) Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi led the Iranian side.
The indirect discussions mediated by Oman lasted 3.5 hours (CNN). There appeared to be no resolution. After it ended, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi posted on X: “Much work is yet to be done, and the parties left with clear next steps before the next meeting.”
Speaking to reporters, Araghchi said, “Ultimately, we were able to reach broad agreement on a set of guiding principles, based on which we will move forward and begin working on the text of a potential agreement.” (Al Jazeera) He added, “Good progress” had been made.
An anonymous US official told reporters, “Progress was made, but there are still a lot of details to discuss. The Iranians said they would come back in the next two weeks with detailed proposals to address some of the open gaps in our positions.” (Washington Post)
As expected, Tehran is asking for US sanctions relief in exchange for limits on its nuclear program (AFP). Iranian officials are also trying to float economic investments as leverage with the Trump administration (CBS NEWS). Just days prior to the talks, on February 15, Foreign Ministry Deputy Director for Economic Diplomacy Hamid Ghanbari said, “Common interests in the oil and gas fields, joint fields, mining investments, and even aircraft purchases are included in the negotiations.” (Reuters)
After the talks, President Trump said the Iranian negotiators had been “tough” but that he hoped they would be “more reasonable,” adding that they “want to make a deal. I don’t think they want the consequences of not making a deal.” (Financial Times)
On the same day, Vice President JD Vance told Fox News:
“In some ways, [the talks] went well. They agreed to meet afterwards. But in other ways it was very clear that the President has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through. So we’re going to keep on working it. But of course, the President reserves the ability to say when he thinks that diplomacy has reached its natural end. We hope we don’t get to that point, but if we do, that will be the President’s call.”
On the date of the meeting, Tehran conducted a second day of military drills in the Strait of Hormuz, a subtle message about its ability to close the chokepoint through which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes (AP/Al-Monitor). Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatened, “What is more dangerous than the warship is the weapon that can sink it to the bottom of the sea.” (ISNA)
On February 19, Trump said during the Gaza Board of Peace meeting in Washington, “Now we may have to take it a step further or we may not. Maybe we are going to make a deal [with Iran]. You are going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.” (Axios) This now suggests a potential timeline. However, the last time similar comments were made about a two-week window, the 12-day war broke out just days afterward.
On February 20, Araghchi spoke to MS NOW’s Morning Joe and said:
“They have not offered any suspension, and the US side has not asked for zero enrichment. What we are now talking about is how to make sure that Iran’s nuclear program, including enrichment, is peaceful and would remain peaceful forever and in return and, you know, Iran, you know, does some confidence-building measures to ensure that its program would remain peaceful and in return, sanctions.”
MS NOW host Joe Scarborough quoted a senior US official afterward:
“What our negotiators told him was, the president’s position is no enrichment. But the burden is on you. If you think you can come back with a counter, the burden is on you to show us what safeguards will be put in place so you will have a nuclear program for power like every other country.” (Al-Monitor)
Meanwhile, satellite images show Iran repairing and fortifying sites (Reuters).
WILL THERE BE A WAR? Various media outlets—CNN, CBS News, and the New York Times—have all reported that the US military is prepared to strike Iran as early as this weekend, but it appears President Trump hasn’t decided yet. Interestingly, one reason experts think it might not happen this weekend is the Winter Olympics, which end on February 22 (Washington Post).
According to the Wall Street Journal:
“Trump has received several briefings on his military options should he choose to strike, all of them designed to maximize damage to Iran’s regime and its regional proxies… The options include a campaign to kill scores of Iranian political and military leaders, with the goal of overthrowing the government… as well as an air attack that would be limited to striking targets including nuclear and ballistic-missile facilities.”
Per reporting by Axios, a “military operation in Iran would likely be a massive, weeks-long campaign that would look more like full-fledged war.” That being said, Trump is reportedly “weighing an initial limited military strike on Iran to force it to meet his demands for a nuclear deal,” designed to pressure Tehran to an agreement (Wall Street Journal). If that doesn’t work, “Trump could ratchet up his attacks, starting small before ordering larger strikes until the Iranian regime either dismantles its nuclear work or falls.”
The US certainly has the air power to do so, having assembled the largest air force since the 2003 Iraq invasion (Wall Street Journal). The US has sent two aircraft carriers, a dozen warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and numerous air defense systems, with the USS Gerald Ford—the US’ most advanced carrier group—arriving in the Middle East as soon as this weekend (Axios/CNN).
Two Israeli defense officials hinted that “significant preparations were underway for the possibility of a joint strike with the United States.” (New York Times)
On February 19, Tehran sent a letter to the United Nations Secretary General, noting:
“If attacked, all bases, facilities, and assets of the hostile force in the region would constitute legitimate targets in the context of Iran’s defensive response. The United States would bear full and direct responsibility for any unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences.” (Reuters)
It’s important to emphasize that Trump technically “has made almost no case at all” for why he wants to attack Iran. As the New York Times points out, “Trump has never consistently described his goals, and when he talks about them it is usually in a haze of brief, offhand comments.” That being said, it’s wild that this started over the unprecedented massacre of anti-regime protesters and somehow got turned into nuclear negotiations by Tehran.
Read more about how Tehran is preparing for war to boost its odds of survival (Wall Street Journal).
What’s also not being discussed enough: The United Kingdom’s refusal to authorize US use of the RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia bases for potential strikes on Iran—a move that has reportedly strained relations (The Times).
۲/2 Slain protesters mourned with ‘revolutionary rage’
On February 17, on the same day as the scheduled talks in Geneva, fortieth day memorial ceremonies for slain protesters were held in various parts of Iran, including the capital, Tehran, and the cities of Abdanan, Bushehr, Chalus, Najafabad, and Shiraz (RFE/RL). Some of the memorials turned into anti-government protests—some of which were met with deadly force. In Abdanan, in western Ilam province, security forces reportedly arrived in armored vehicles and opened fire on mourners commemorating the death of 16-year-old Alireza Seydi, who had been killed (X). Not surprisingly, anti-regime chants broke out in some mourning ceremonies, such as “Death to Khamenei” and “For every person that is killed, a thousand more will rise up.” (X/X)
According to RFE/RL:
“Families of the victims have reported a surge in harassment and pressure from the authorities in recent days and weeks. Some have been summoned for questioning, threatened, and blocked from organizing commemorations.”
Internet disruptions and small-scale shutdowns were reported in multiple Iranian cities (X).
The fortieth day—or “Chehelom” in Persian—marks the end of the 40-day mourning period, which has roots in Shia Islam. But rather than become a place of traditional mourning, Iranians have been turning their grief into defiance by wearing white, playing music, dancing, releasing kites and doves, handing out flowers and balloons, and having symbolic weddings for those who have been killed (Instagram/Instagram/Instagram/Instagram/Instagram). One of the popular chants regarding the slain protesters is now, “This flower’s scattered petals have become a gift to the homeland.”(Instagram)
Schools also became memorials this week. Videos have emerged of schoolgirls holding a candlelight vigil and calling for freedom (X). To honor the 200 children killed, as well as some teachers, the hashtags نیمکتهای_خالی# (#EmptyDesks) and کلاسهای_بی_معلم# (#ClassesWithoutTeacher) were used.
One might say, history does rhyme. As Reuters notes:
“The anti-Shah revolutionaries turned Shia Muslim memorial processions 40 days after each death into new protests, which prompted renewed violence from the authorities and fresh ‘martyrs’ for the cause.”
Not surprisingly, authorities tried to whitewash the massacre by organizing state-sponsored chehelom ceremonies, framing the killed as “victims of American-Zionist quasi coup d’état terrorism.” (Amwaj.media)
The group Human Rights Activists in Iran claims that 7,005 people have been killed, including 214 security forces (AP). The group is still reviewing more than 10,000 additional cases. Iran International is reporting that more than 36,500 protesters were killed.
A gut-wrenching photo of slain protesters, wrapped in blankets instead of body bags, has gone viral on Persian-language social media—its haunting composition giving it an almost artistic quality.
۳/3 Unprecedented anti-regime protests around the globe
Diaspora Iranians rallied in cities around the world in response to former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi’s call for a Global Day of Action. Major turnouts included Munich—where some 250,000 gathered during the annual Munich Security Conference (MSC)—as well as diaspora hubs Toronto and Los Angeles, which each saw 350,000 protesters. Pahlavi said that “more than 1,000,000 people” participated worldwide (X). Watch his remarks at the Iran Townhall during the MSC.
۴/4 Children among 30 people facing uprising-related death sentence
۵/5 X removes blue checks of officials, spurring parody accounts
۶/6 Co-writer of Oscar-nominated film released from prison
۷/7 Imprisoned British couple sentenced to 10 years
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human Rights
۰ ‘Deliberate targeting of vital body parts’: X-rays taken after Iran protests expose extent of catastrophic injuries (The Guardian)
۰ Alireza Ghasimi: Shot in the neck during Mashhad protests (IranWire)
۰ An artist, a geophysicist and a fruit seller: Accounts of Iran’s brutal crackdown emerge (NBC News)
۰ Iran regime accused of killing 19 Christians in anti-regime protests as persecution continues: watchdog (Fox News)
۰ New photos give glimpse inside Iran’s bloody crackdown on anti-government protests (The Guardian)
۰ Nasrin Sotoudeh: ‘Humanitarian intervention in Iran is needed under the auspices of the UN’ (Le Point)
۰ Athletes in detention: Unprecedented, like the Islamic Republic’s record (IranWire)
۰ Iranian security use dragnet spanning the entire country to arrest protesters (AP)
۰ New prison term for jailed political prisoner Mostafa Tajzadeh (HRANA)
۰ Iran jail terms for Christians top 280 years as arrests nearly doubled (Iran International)
Domestic Issues
۰ Internet shutdown chokes off one of the last lifelines for young Iranians (Iran International)
۰ Yalda Moayeri: Majority people are waiting for war to move past the regime (IranWire)
Foreign Policy + Security
۰ Three Silicon Valley engineers charged with stealing Google trade secrets and sending data to Iran (CNBC)
۰ Ex-IDF Military Intelligence chief suggests US action against Iran could come within days (Times of Israel)
۰ Iran’s military degraded by 12-day war with Israel, but still has significant capabilities (AP)
۰ Son of Iran’s last shah urges US military intervention in Iran (Reuters)
۰ Iran tells airlines to avoid key Middle East fly zone amid sabre-rattling missile drills (The National)
۰ Following Iran nuclear talks, China’s support for tehran returns to the spotlight (RFE/RL)
۰ Canada wants Iran government change, increases sanctions (Reuters)
۰ As Hezbollah vows to defend Iran, Lebanon braces for potential spillover (Al-Monitor)
Iran Deal + Sanctions
۰ Iran nuclear material ‘still there, in large quantities,’ IAEA chief says, calling for urgent deal with US (CBS News)
۰ EU terrorist list: Council designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization (Europa.eu)
۰ Exclusive: Binance fires top investigators who claim to have uncovered evidence of Iranian sanctions violations (Fortune)
Arts + Culture
۰ U2 honor Renée Good, plus show solidarity with Palestine, Ukraine and Iran on surprise new EP, ‘Days of Ash’ (Far Out)