Vetting process begins, dual-national held hostage—and more
Vetting process begins, dual-national held hostage—and more
The Iranist for the week of June 6, 2024
NOTE: I’m giving a TedxTalk on Iranian Gen Z and the push for change in Iran on June 8th in Washington, DC. Buy your tickets (Promo Code: TEDX)
۱/1 Vetting process begins for the presidential election
* “Reformists” or “Moderates” describe themselves as individuals who believe in the status quo and reforming the Islamic Republic, while “Principlists” or “Fundamentalists” are what Western media call “hardliners.”
Presidential elections will take place on Friday, June 28. Candidates registered from May 30 – June 3. From June 4 - 11, the Guardian Council—a twelve-member body, six of which are picked by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—will vet candidates, with the approved list announced on June 11. However, the Guardian Council announced plans to reduce reviewing of the candidates “as much as possible to allow more campaigning time for candidates.” (IranWire) Depending on the date, candidates will be allowed to campaign until the morning of June 27.
Dozens have registered, but here are the key names to know:
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, current speaker of parliament (ran in 2005, 2013)
Ali Larijani, former speaker of parliament (barred from running in 2021)
Saeed Jalili, Supreme Leader’s representative in the Supreme National Security Council and former nuclear negotiator
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, former president during 2006-2013 (barred from running in 2021)
Eshaq Jahangiri, first vice-president under President Hassan Rouhani during 2013-2021 (ran in 2017)
Masoud Pezeshkian, member of parliament
Mostafa Kavakebian, politician and editor-in-chief of Mardomsalari newspaper
Alireza Zakani, Tehran’s mayor
Abdolnasser Hemmati, former Central Bank of Iran chief (ran in 2021)
Vahid Haghanian, former IRGC commander and member of supreme leader’s inner circle
Fadahosein Maliki, member of parliament and head of the headquarters for combating goods and currency
Zohreh Elahian, former member of parliament (first woman to successfully apply to run, though the constitution says otherwise)
Here’s the full list of names.
If no presidential candidate secures a majority on June 28, a runoff between the top two candidates will be held on July 5 to determine Iran’s next president.
FYI: The 2021 presidential election and recent parliamentary elections both had the lowest turnouts in the Islamic Republic’s forty-five-year history.
۲/2 Acting foreign minister meets with leader of Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad
۳/3 IAEA board votes to censure Iran despite threat
Last week, the E3—Britain, France, and Germany—circulated a draft resolution against Iran ahead of the quarterly International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting in Vienna (Wall Street Journal). On June 5, the board passed a censure resolution (20 to 2) pushed by the E3 on Tehran’s lack of cooperation with nuclear inspections and over its nuclear program advances. The rebuke happened despite the United States reportedly telling its European allies—Britain and France—not to censure Iran. Twelve countries abstained, but despite initial reports, the United States voted in favor of the resolution, while Russia and China opposed it. The last time the thirty-five nation Board of Governors passed a resolution against Iran was eighteen months ago about uranium particles found at three undeclared sites.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the “resolution could start to lay the basis for an eventual snapback if Tehran doesn’t change course, an option that expires in October 2025.” Iranian officials threatened to take new steps in advancing their nuclear program if it passed.
The Iranian foreign ministry “strongly condemn[ed]” what it called “a political and nonconstructive action and a continuation of the previous failed policies of some Western countries and an attempt to politically abuse international mechanisms against independent countries.” (AP)
Upon the news, acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani said:
“The nonconstructive approach of some member countries in exploiting the agency’s capacity in pursuit of their political goals will definitely harm the identity of the agency, as well as its role-playing and specialized role.” (VOA)
In its latest report, the IAEA reported that Iran had increased its stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium to 142.1 kilograms from 20.6 kilograms three months prior—the highest to date. These figures are as of May 11 (the last quarterly IAEA report was published in February). Sixty percent is considered near weapons-grade levels of 90 percent.
The 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, allowed Iran only to enrich 3.67 percent. The United States, under the Donald Trump administration, withdrew from the deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, prompting Tehran to violate the deal incrementally over time.
۴/4 Another dual-national held hostage
A British-Iranian dual national has been imprisoned since November 2023. Nasrin Roshan, 60, was arrested as she was leaving Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport, alongside her relative Sara Tabrizi, 20, who was eventually freed but died under suspicious conditions upon returning home in March (IranWire). According to Roshan’s husband, Arash Asiabi, she was detained for attending a ceremony commemorating the late Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in Cairo, Egypt, where he is buried and reportedly met the former Queen Farah Pahlavi and for attending diaspora anti-regime protests during the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom uprising (Telegraph). Roshan had traveled to Iran to visit an ailing aunt. Asiabi said that his family was “instructed to remain quiet until a few months had passed, under the false promise that she would be released.” (IranWire)
Roshan was intially handed a four-year sentence on alleged charges of:
“participating in the commemoration ceremony of the late shah of Iran, engaging in protests outside Iran, conspiring against the country’s internal and external security, and disseminating propaganda against the Islamic Republic.” (IranWire)
However, after Tabrizi’s death, the sentence was reduced to thirteen months. Roshan reportedly has had depression for years as well as a heart condition (RFE/RL), and has since developed joint and back pain while in prison, where she has been denied medical care (Iran International).
In September 2023, European officials said there could be as many as thirty European Union nationals currently in detention in Iran. The Islamic Republic takes foreign and dual nationals hostage as a bargaining chip in its dealings with the West.
۵/5 Arrested for a punctuation mark
On June 4, an Iranian editor and online activist was arrested. Hosseyn Shanbehzaadeh, 39, known for his criticism of the Islamic Republic, had responded with a period to a post on X (formerly Twitter) by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei regarding the Iranian national volleyball team (Radio Farda). The response went viral, garnering more likes and views than the supreme leader’s original post. Shanbehzaadeh’s X account was quickly shut down, presumably to protect his personal information.
On June 5, the Iranian judiciary alleged that Shanbehzaadeh is a “fugitive Mossad agent” with connections to the Israeli intelligence agency and has a history of insulting religious figures (Iran International). Many on social media linked the allegations to his comment on Khamenei’s post.
According to Shanbehzaadeh’s brother, Abbas, he was arrested in the northwestern city of Ardabil while visiting a friend (IranWire). He refuted claims that the editor attempted to flee the country (Shanbehzaadeh had shared posts about his trip on social media before being arrested). Shanbehzaadeh’s whereabouts are currently unknown.
Shanbehzaadeh has previously served a prison sentence for criticizing the clerical establishment on social media (HRANA).
۶/6 IRGC general killed in Syria—two months after Israel and Iran tit-for-tat
۷/7 EU imposes sanctions on defense minister and Quds Force commander over Russia drone transfers
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Iran executes two more prisoners (IranWire)
۰ Iran plans to hang juvenile offender amid ongoing execution spree (Iran International)
۰ Iran jails regime critic Sadegh Zibakalam (DW)
۰ Iran arrests Instagram page admins for promoting 'western lifestyles' (IranWire)
۰ Iranian activists take center stage at Oslo Freedom Forum 2024 (Iran International)
۰ Havel Prize awarded to dissident Iranian rapper Toomaj Salehi (Iran International)
۰ Family Of French citizen held in Iran in the dark over her fate (RFE/RL)
۰ Iranian dissident partly paralyzed after being beaten by regime thugs in London (Jewish Chronicle)
Domestic issues
۰ Iran announces the death of a high-ranking Revolutionary Guard general after a long illness (AP)
۰ Alarming doctor suicides signal crisis in Iran’s medical field (IranWire)
۰ Iran iPhone users signal dismay over new models ban (AFP)
Foreign policy + security
۰ News site editor’s ties to Iran, Russia show misinformation’s complexity (Washington Post)
۰ Iran’s top diplomat confirms talks with US (AFP)
۰ Tribute to late Iranian president at UN stirs anger (AFP)
۰ Israel’s military hopes to speak directly to Iranians to stop a war (Iran International)
۰ In rare clash with Iran, China reaffirms solidarity with UAE over disputed islands (Al-Monitor)
۰ Iranian fined in Russia for sweatshirt with Ukrainian symbols (RFE/RL)
۰ Amid soaring heat, Iran warns of fire risk in Iraqi side of vital wetland (IranWire)
۰ Pakistan says 4 citizens killed after Iranian border guards open fire (Radio Farda)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ US lawmakers push to sanction Iranian officials over death sentence for rapper Toomaj Salehi (AP)
۰ US, EU impose sanctions on Iranian entities, individual linked to drone sector (RFE/RL)