Update XV from The Iranist
June 12, 2026
Salam reader,
There was quite a bit of whiplash this week. Journalist Michael Weiss put it best (X):
For weeks, we’ve been hearing about talks and an imminent deal (X). June 11 was perhaps the most dizzying day of an already chaotic news cycle. It began with another exchange of US-Iran strikes, the third time this week that tit-for-tat strikes shook the Middle East and brought fears of another all-out war (AP).
President Donald Trump initially declared:
“The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT. At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela…” (Truth Social)
Yet just hours later, the president called off the planned strikes. He posted on Truth Social:
“Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others. The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized—Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly…”
Apparently, Pakistan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates called the US president and persuaded him to change course (Politico). However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that Tehran hadn’t made a final decision and wouldn’t compromise on its “red lines” in negotiations (Reuters).
That said, Mehr News Agency published what it claimed were draft details of a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU):
A permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon
A US commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect its sovereignty
The complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days
A US commitment to withdraw its forces from regions surrounding Iran
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements
The suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products, and their derivatives, along with full Iranian access to the resulting revenues
A requirement that the United States and its allies provide plans for Iran’s reconstruction totaling at least $300 billion
Sixty days of negotiations to reach a final agreement focused on nuclear issues and the complete removal of US primary and secondary sanctions, as well as sanctions imposed through United Nations Security Council resolutions and resolutions of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors
Iran’s reaffirmation of its commitment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to produce nuclear weapons
During the negotiation period, the United States commits not to increase its military forces in the region or impose new sanctions
The release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the 60-day final negotiation period; half of this amount ($12 billion) must be made available to Iran before negotiations begin
The establishment of a monitoring mechanism to ensure implementation of the agreement
Endorsement of the final agreement through a United Nations Security Council resolution
Final negotiations will not begin until half of Iran’s frozen funds have been released, oil sanctions have been suspended, and the naval blockade has been lifted. The final agreement will focus exclusively on: The fate of enriched nuclear material and uranium enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and plans to rebuild Iran’s economy
Discussions regarding Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for proxies have been definitively excluded from the agenda.
If this draft text is to be believed, the war has left the US negotiating position in a worse place than before the conflict began.
The president quickly pushed back in another Truth Social post:
“The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing. What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith…”
A senior Trump administration official outlined what was said to be the US version of the MOU (X):
Nuclear material will be destroyed and removed
Nuclear program will be dismantled
None of Iran’s money released until they perform
Strait of Hormuz will be open
No funding of terrorist groups
The two drafts couldn’t be further apart. Yet regardless of what the final text says, the MOU is likely to be signed early next week, potentially on the sidelines of the Group of Seven (G7) leaders’ summit, according to senior officials (Bloomberg/CBS News). If that happens, it would give Tehran international credibility. The signing would then trigger a 60-day period to hammer out the details of a US-Iran agreement.
Iran policy by tweet is exhausting to follow here in the West, but just imagine what it’s been like for ordinary Iranians. Since the tit-for-tat strikes began on June 7, following Iran’s attack on Israel over Lebanon, reactions among anti-regime Iranians have been mixed.
Much of my Persian language Twitter feed was filled with young Iranians inside the country understandably upset about their horrible circumstances, cursing at Trump (whether for starting or stopping the war) or at the Islamic Republic. Many resorted to dark humor, memes, and jokes to cope with the uncertainty. In real life, those who could afford to, fled the capital, Tehran, after hearing Trump’s latest threats on June 11 (New York Times).
Here’s what some young Iranians had to say:
“What a regular routine, we have a war every other night.” (X)
“Please don’t start a war I don’t want to be unemployed for another 3 months” (X)
“Guys, I’ve completely lost hope in everything now. Hope in Iran, in my career prospects and financial situation, in my love life, and in life.” (X)
“I wish I’d die before the sounds of fighter jets and bombings return. I’m scared and I just can’t handle their war and war games anymore.” (X)
One Iranian managed to find humor even in despair:
“I’m against war for now because I can’t accept that I’ve seen three wars and in all three I’ve been single.” (X)
With the internet partially back on, Instagram content has been flowing again. Unsurprisingly, Iranian content creators have been poking fun at the tit-for-tat strikes and the ceasefire (X/X).
Yet one fear appeared more frequently than any other on my feed: the prospect of another state-imposed internet shutdown. Here’s what some wrote:
“I’m ‘another internet shutdown in Iran’ away from a psychiatric hospital.” (X)
“I’m not afraid of missiles, I’m afraid of going offline.” (X)
“I’m scared to sleep and wake up in the morning to no internet.” (X)
Some Iranians couldn’t resist making light of the situation:
“Now is the best time to use the excuse of the internet shutdown to get that pretty girl’s number.” (X)
“I said to my friend in Iran what are you doing? He said, ‘Downloading and saving p*rn.’” (X)
With the downward spiral of the economy and the Islamic Republic still firmly in power, the war has shattered what remained of many Iranians’ hopes for a better future.
Majid, a 27-year-old computer engineer who was laid off during the war, summed up the mood:
“It’s the same news almost everywhere. No jobs and massively increased prices. It basically means we are f*cked.” (The Atlantic)
More soon,
Holly
P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.