Update XII from The Iranist
May 22, 2026
Salam reader,
“Guess who’s back, back again?” Well, not quite. He’s back in the news: former hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He was reportedly “someone from within” whom the Israelis had in mind to take over in Tehran (New York Times). I first came across a variation of this wild story in The Atlantic at the start of the Iran war. Ahmadinejad was allegedly under house arrest, and an airstrike on day one was supposedly intended to free him to lead a coup before the populist politician went underground. Then, in mid-April, sources told me he had allegedly met with Israelis in a neighboring country and was subsequently placed under house arrest (X). In response to Europe-based journalist Amir Taheri—who claimed the story was an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fabrication—The New York Times’ Ronen Bergman wrote:
“In other words… *quite a few sources *in contact with four Times reporters, *from at least three of the countries taking part in this war, *sources whom those reporters themselves initiated contact with, *and who could not have known in advance that they would be approached—*coordinated among themselves how to feed the reporters the same false information, *serving the Revolutionary Guards’ smear campaign against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?..” (X)
I’m sharing this because, after hearing numerous stories corroborating it, I think it might be true. More importantly, it’s yet another example of how little those planning this war understand Iran—whether the clerical establishment or the Iranian people. Another example is the alleged effort to arm Kurdish groups and the failure to understand how that would be perceived inside by ordinary Iranians and the unlikeliness of its success.
Granted, Ahmadinejad knows where the bodies are buried, and some have said that he remains popular enough to win another presidential election. That might be why he was barred by the vetting body, the Guardian Council, from running in three elections. Still, this is the same Holocaust denier whose sham 2009 presidential election victory sparked the mass post-election protests known as the Green Movement. Ahmadinejad can learn English, have his assistant quote rapper Tupac Shakur and talk sports on his Twitter account, but he’s still part of the clerical establishment (read my Atlantic Council piece on him from 2020).
The war almost picked up again this week. I had on good authority that it was happening on May 18-19, but by the afternoon of May 18, President Donald Trump had written the following on Truth Social:
“I have been asked by the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to hold off on our planned Military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow, in that serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond…” (X)
On May 19, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a tense call about their diverging views on Iran: Trump wants to continue the diplomatic route, while Netanyahu believes Tehran cannot be trusted to abide by any deal (Wall Street Journal/Axios). If the war had recommenced, “the targets could include energy and infrastructure to increase the economic pain… Israel would also be a part of the attacks, which could also include more targeted killings…” (Wall Street Journal)
There’s an assumption in some circles that if Iranians run out of oil and they are left in the dark, it will push people into the streets. Separate from being war crimes, if the clerical establishment survives after yet another round of the war, Iranians will be left with an unimaginably worse economy and no power.
That being said, sources say that Egypt, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have been working over the past few days to bridge the divisions in the latest proposal (Axios). This appears to be a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities that kicks the difficult issues down the road as part of 30-day negotiations.
National security reporter Alex Marquardt has all the tea on the latest draft proposal:
There’s no surprise that there’s no mention of turning the internet back on, a moratorium on executions, and the release of political prisoners. The Trump administration can apparently talk about human rights when it comes to Cuba, but on Iran, zilch.
On May 22, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir traveled to Tehran amid renewed efforts to end the war (RFERL). Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi arrived earlier this week and was still in town when the powerful army chief arrived (Al-Monitor). Interestingly, Qatar also sent a team of mediators to the capital on the same date in coordination with the United States—suggesting that there is progress in negotiations (The Guardian). Doha had previously distanced itself from a mediator role in the Iran war.
A day prior, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “There’s some good signs. I don’t want to be overly optimistic ... So, let’s see what happens over the next few days.” (Reuters)
Interestingly, Trump said on May 22 that he won’t be attending his son Donald Trump Jr’s wedding due to responsibilities in Washington, or as he said the day before, “this is not good timing for me. I have a thing called Iran and other things.” (CBS News).
Is it because the US president is slated to sign a deal or restart the war?
More soon,
Holly
P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.