Update X from The Iranist
May 8, 2026
Salam reader,
Iranian Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi, 54, is “between life and death” and may die, according to her supporters (The Guardian). Mohammadi suffered two suspected heart attacks on March 24 and May 1 while imprisoned in northern Zanjan prison and was intially denied both medical treatment and a visit to her cardiologist (she is now getting treatment per TIME, but it’s not specialized for her condition).
Mohammadi was violently arrested by security forces in December 2025 at the seventh-day memorial service for lawyer Khosrow Alikordi in the northeastern city of Mashhad, whose death some believe was suspicious. The blows she sustained contributed to her deteriorating health. This human rights advocate has been arrested 14 times and sentenced to a total of 44 years in prison for her work. If Mohammadi—a steadfast defender of women’s rights who has spent much of her life fighting for democracy and freedom in Iran—dies, her blood will be on the hands of the Islamic Republic. The United Nations is calling for her “immediate and unconditional” release (IranWire).
Separate from Mohammadi’s case is the continued rise in near-daily executions carried out in secrecy, many of which are protesters from the anti-regime uprising in January (The Guardian). Authorities are also refusing to hand over the bodies to the families. This week, protesters Ebrahim Dolatabadi, Mehdi Rassouli, and Mohammad Reza Miri were executed (CBS News). According to Human Rights Watch, Iran has executed at least 28 people since March 18 (X). Speaking of the uprising, a doctor who treated injured protesters at the time said he managed to get Internet Pro during the war and was devastated to see “privileged” folks in the West on social media “whitewashing” and “denying” the unprecedented massacre he witnessed in Iran (X). (Listen to the full episode of This American Life on the impact of the state-imposed internet shutdown on Iranians during the war.)
There’s some confusion about what’s going on in the Strait of Hormuz, including why the United States and Iran exchanged fire this week amid a declared ceasefire (New York Times). I won’t get into the weeds, but on May 7, President Donald Trump claimed the truce was still in place, adding, “They trifled with us today. We blew them away.” (Washington Post) He also described the incident as “just a love tap.” (TIME) Trump noted that a deal “might not happen, but it could happen any day. I believe they want the deal more than I do.” (Washington Post)
Meanwhile, according to a Washington Post analysis of satellite imagery,
“Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at US military sites across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment… The threat of air attacks rendered some of the US bases in the region too dangerous to staff at normal levels, and commanders moved most of the personnel from these sites out of the range of Iranian fire at the start of the war…”
Not surprisingly, the Islamic Republic is continuing to survive the blockade. A confidential Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analysis concluded that Tehran can survive the US naval blockade for at least three to four months before feeling the economic squeeze (The Washington Post). This isn’t entirely surprising, given that the country has one of the most sophisticated sanction evasion playbooks in the world. Additionally, China has reportedly been sending a cargo train every three to four days since the blockade began on April 13 (Bloomberg). That said, an Iranian oil ministry official estimated a timeline of about 40 to 45 days before onshore and offshore oil storage runs out. At that point, some oil wells would need to be shut down, potentially permanently for older ones (New York Times).
The CIA assessment also said that Tehran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities—“75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles”—despite the extensive damage sustained during the war (The Washington Post). This is yet another indication that suggests the Islamic Republic will survive, for the time being.
The Trump administration believes it’s closing in on a 14-point, one-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) negotiated by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner with several Iranian officials (Axios). The MOU would formally declare the end of the war and initiate a 30-day negotiation period. Under the proposed framework, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while the US would relax its blockade. Most US sanctions relief would be tied to Iran’s compliance with the agreement.
Per the Wall Street Journal, US demands include:
A declaration that Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons
The handover of all enriched nuclear material
A 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment
The dismantlement of the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities
A ban on underground nuclear activity
On-demand inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, with penalties for violations
On May 7, Tehran said it was reviewing the latest US messages delivered via Pakistan. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he expected a response today, May 8 (CNBC). It’s hard to imagine that, after billions of dollars spent, the killing of nuclear scientists over the years, and two wars, Tehran would suddenly abandon its nuclear program— especially as hardline voices within the clerical establishment are increasingly calling for the development of a nuclear weapon (if it had the capabilities to do so).
More soon,
Holly
P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.
Thank you, Holly.