Update VIII from The Iranist
April 24, 2026
Salam reader,
Apparently, the ceasefire is indefinite, at least according to President Donald Trump (CBS News). Since the war began, the president has extended deadlines five times (CNN). That helps explain why the Iranians haven’t conceded to his terms: they appear to be counting on him to blink first—which, arguably, he already has on numerous occasions—alongside the fact that the Islamic Republic is an ideological regime unwilling to bend the knee.
On April 21, Vice President JD Vance was expected to depart for Islamabad to make a deal in writing, but the trip never materialized. The initial green light from Tehran the day before had turned into a red light (Axios/Wall Street Journal). As the April 22 ceasefire deadline inched closer, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said it would not enter negotiations until the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz was lifted (X).
But there’s another side to the story: the latest round of talks reportedly fell through because Tehran never responded to the US’ broad list that they wanted the Iranians to agree to before resuming negotiations (CNN). Instead, silence.
According to CNN:
“…Trump’s top aides believe a main reason they didn’t hear back was fractures within the current Iranian leadership, their understanding based partly on dispatches from the Pakistani intermediaries… The administration’s sense is that the Iranians don’t have consensus on their position or how much to empower the negotiators on uranium enrichment and the country’s current stockpile of enriched uranium—a major sticking point in the peace talks. Part of that complicating factor, the US believes, is whether the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is giving his subordinates clear directions—or if they’re simply having to guess what he wants without specific instruction.”
If you’re starting to wonder that Khamenei Junior is an AI-tollah after all, given the AI-generated imagery of him in the new role, the New York Times reports he’s alive but recovering from serious injuries:
“Access to him is extremely difficult and limited now... Senior commanders of the Guards and senior government officials do not visit him, fearing that Israel may trace them to him and kill him… Though Khamenei was gravely wounded, he is mentally sharp and engaged… One leg was operated on three times, and he is awaiting a prosthetic. He had surgery on one hand and is slowly regaining function. His face and lips have been burned severely, making it difficult for him to speak… eventually, he will need plastic surgery.” (New York Times)
He has also reportedly avoided recording messages to prevent appearing weak. Instead, all of Khamenei’s communications are reportedly “handwritten, sealed in envelopes and relayed via a human chain from one trusted courier to the next, who travel on highways and back roads, in cars and on motorcycles until they reach his hide-out. His guidance on issues snakes back the same way.” (New York Times)
On April 21, President Trump wrote on Truth Social:
“Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so… we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other…”
Reports are increasingly highlighting these internal fractures. One example is the confusion over whether the Strait of Hormuz was open or closed: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced its reopening, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly refused to implement the decision and even attacked him publicly (Axios). These divisions have become apparent after the death of Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, whose replacement, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, is reportedly less effective at coordinating between the political and military factions (Axios).
Senior Iranian officials seem to have taken note, especially of Trump’s comments. In what appears to be a first, several posted messages on Twitter emphasizing unity, including Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and other officials (X/X/X/Iran International).
While coordinated messaging of this kind is unusual, it may also reflect Tehran’s broader effort to shape the war narrative—something it has already been doing through Iranian embassy accounts and Lego videos. This is arguably part of yet another effort to undermine the narrative amplified by Trump’s comments.
Another example of narrative distortion emerged when the US president and State Department highlighted eight Iranian women who were all alleged to have been sentenced to death (Reuters). The women—Bita Hemmati, Diana Taherabadi, Ensieh Nejati, Ghazal Ghalandari, Golnaz Naraghi, Mahboubeh Shabani, Panah Movahedi and Venus Hosseininejad—are real and were arrested during the January anti-regime uprising, according to the Center for Human Rights in Iran (The National). However, their sentences differed, and only one—Hemmati—was sentenced to death. Additionally, their real photos were AI-enhanced or modified, according to WITNESS’ Mahsa Alimardani, which raised questions about the authenticity of them all together (TechPolicy.press) As The Verge noted, this case is a “mingling of fact and fiction into a fuzzy distortion that fuels an endless disputation of real human rights violations,” and plays into the Islamic Republic’s hands (as seen below).
Ceasefire talks appear to be up in the air, though the Iranian foreign minister is set to visit Pakistan this weekend (AP). US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Islamabad in the coming days to meet him (X). However, Ghalibaf may not attend—which means the vice president won’t either, according to reports (X). Interestingly, there are rumors swirling that the parliamentary speaker has resigned from the negotiating team, though numerous officials have denied it (X/X).
Meanwhile, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, though there’s some confusion on what the blockade entails. On April 23, the IRGC seized two cargo ships and brought them to Bandar Abbas port—an action the US says wasn’t part of the blockade (Reuters). The move appears to be retaliation for the seizure of an Iran-flagged cargo ship on April 19. At the same time, Tehran has managed to get at least 34 tankers past the blockade, some carrying Iranian oil, which isn’t surprising given that it has one of the best sanctions evasion playbooks globally (Financial Times/Lloyd’s List).
The Iranian Navy is also laying mines in the Strait, which could take up to six months to clear, per a Pentagon assessment (Axios/Washington Post). US officials say that Tehran has more military capabilities than the US government publicly admitted (CBS News). If ceasefire talks collapse, the US military is reportedly developing plans to target small fast attack boats, minelaying vessels, and other asymmetric assets that helped Tehran shut down the Strait (CNN).
As the blockade continues and the fate of negotiations remains uncertain, ordinary Iranians are struggling to get by. Asr-e Iran newspaper estimates that up to four million jobs have been lost or affected by the war and the state-imposed internet shutdown (BBC News). Also, Bloomberg News’ analysis of damage clusters in Tehran found that 2,816 buildings were hit—about one-third linked to military sites, while the majority were industrial, civilian, or commercial.
The internet shutdown since February 28 has remained a major source of frustration for Iranians. Some fear it could become permanent, especially with proposals for “Internet Pro,” a tiered system that would only grant access to businesses and wealthier users (Iran International). Iranians are now buying expensive VPNs from questionable dealers (often built through access to government-tiered internet), with many spending most of their monthly income for small amounts of gigabytes of access (X).
An Iran-based journalist wrote the following:
“Open this cursed internet already. Thank God you’ve also pushed our economic situation to the point where we can’t even afford your multimillion toman VPNs anymore,” referring to the Islamic Republic. (X)
Iranians are still finding ways to communicate, but they’re no longer connected to the world as they once were—and those voices risk being lost...
More soon,
Holly
P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.
Thank you, Holly.