Update VII from The Iranist

April 17, 2026

Salam reader,

For those of us with friends and family in Iran, it’s been a difficult time—not just because of the war, but because of the country’s fifth state-imposed internet shutdown, which began on February 28 and is now the longest globally (X). Rarely do the single check marks on messaging apps like WhatsApp turn into two. Sometimes messages come through from loved ones, only to revert to one check mark when we try to respond. Some have resorted to calling from Iran via landline, an exceedingly expensive option in this dire economy, which, of course, the Islamic Republic profits from. Only this week were diaspora Iranians finally able to place calls to Iran. Before, communication had been one-way (X). Iranians have also just regained access to Google.

A screenshot of my “Hello?” text to a relative in Iran

Journalist Elahe Mohammadi, who reported on the funeral of Mahsa Jina Amini and was imprisoned for it, wrote:

“Yesterday, after fifty-something days, Google finally connected barely, and with difficulty. The news spread quickly; some people were happy, thinking it might signal that other restrictions could be lifted.

But a moment later, you catch yourself: how did things get to the point where people have to get excited over a half-working connection to Google? Over opening a few simple links for the most basic right of access?

The disaster isn’t just the filtering and restrictions; it’s that they’re trying to lower people’s expectations so much that even the smallest things feel like a favor. That’s the ultimate disregard for people’s dignity. And they were talking about solidarity and unity!

P.S. This tweet was written using one gig of data bought for 600,000 tomans (a lot of money in Iran), and I don’t even know if it will go through.” (X)

The Islamic Republic claims these measures are in the name of national security, but in reality, they are about controlling the narrative (read this piece to learn more). The clerical establishment has granted selective Internet access to Iranian officials as well as whitelisted journalists and influencers—more commonly referred to as “white SIM card” holders. That’s why they can appear seamlessly on Western media channels and post on social media, while someone like Mohammadi struggles just to get online and share a single post.

The status of the internet in Iran since February 28 (X)

The Internet shutdown has ramifications far beyond communication. In my 2022 report, Iranians on #SocialMedia, I noted that there were 11 million digital businesses, most of them reliant on Instagram, which also helped empower Iranian women to achieve greater financial independence.

Iran-based journalist Zahra Keshvari wrote:

“In this war, many people lost their jobs. The digital economy was completely destroyed. Many small rural businesses and small towns are dependent on the internet. Many female heads of household make a living by selling their handicrafts and products in virtual spaces. Have you ever thought about how these people get by?” (X)

When discussing the internet, I’d be remiss not to revisit the Islamic Republic’s online propaganda. This Verge piece aptly explains How Iran out-sh*posted the White House:

“The Lego brainrot feels true to a real global constituency primed to despise America for all kinds of reasons. Iran’s regime has ‘created its identity around being a representative for the oppressed, being a representative for the global majority,’ says [Mahsa] Alimardani [of WITNESS]. The war set up a ‘perfect propaganda moment for them, where they are actually in a position where they’re being attacked.’ For over four decades, she says, the regime’s ideology and politics have revolved around the notion that the evil American empire and Israel are victimizing Iran. Now, that message has never been more on the nose.”

That message resonates with some, particularly in the Global South. The Islamic Republic sees itself as the rebels in Star Wars, with the United States as the Empire. But there’s an inherent contradiction when the regime claims to be the champion of the oppressed while repressing its own people—as seen with the unprecedented massacre in January—and also denying them access to the rest of the world. The studios behind Akhbar Enfejari (“Explosive News”) acknowledged working with the regime, which came as little surprise (BBC News). YouTube removed the studio’s page—though some might argue free speech concerns.

The Internet blackout may not last much longer, though there’s chatter based on an alleged leaked document that it could become permanent (X). At the same time, reports suggest a potential deal to end the war may be in the works following last week’s negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan.

On April 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said:

“In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.” (X)

President Donald Trump echoed a similar sentiment on Truth Social, writing that:

“THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED…”

This is significant, as roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through the Strait. At the same time, an estimated 90 percent of the Iranian economy depends on international trade by sea, and the country exports about 1.5 million barrels per day, earning roughly $140 million (CNN/Axios).

Trump also posted, “The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear ‘Dust,’ created by our great B2 Bombers - No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form…” (X) But as Axios journalist Barak Ravid noted, “It’s Iranian frozen money so it doesnt need to exchange hands.”

Axios reports that the United States and Iran are attempting to end the war through a three-page memorandum of understanding (MOU)—a document far shorter than the 150-page Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the first Trump administration withdrew from in 2018 and contained extensive details. One reported provision is that the US would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran giving up at least some of its 440 kg of highly enriched uranium—a proposal being described as “cash-for-uranium.”

The two sides are also considering a “voluntary” moratorium on nuclear enrichment. The US has pushed for 20 years, while Iran is reportedly seeking a shorter timeline of three to five years and may agree to transfer part of its enriched uranium to a third country (Axios /Reuters). According to two Iranian sources (one is a senior official), if an agreement is reached, “the two sides are expected to have 60 days to negotiate ​a final deal, which would require involvement of experts and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).” (Reuters) The sources also said Tehran is seeking a timetable for the lifting of multilateral sanctions.

On April 16, President Trump said he might travel to Pakistan if a deal to end the war was signed there, adding that another round of talks could take place this weekend (New York Times).

The Iranian people aren’t part of these negotiations, but they should be. During the Islamabad talks, the United States could have pushed for human rights benchmarks such as turning the internet back on, a moratorium on executions, and releasing political prisoners such as Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi, who is in critical condition after suffering a heart attack in prison last month (France24).

Unfortunately, this war has left the Iranian people worse off, and as the Wall Street Journal reports, with “a militarized Iran ruled by a younger, hardline leader where the Revolutionary Guard plays an even more dominant role.” Given that Trump promised “help is on its way” and is now planning to make a deal with the same regime that massacred them in January, it’s in US national security interests not to alienate much of the Iranian people, who are arguably one of the most pro-American populations in the world.

More soon,

Holly

P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.