Update VI from The Iranist
April 10, 2026
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Salam reader,
I had been noting how sentiments among Iranians could shift with the targeting of civilian infrastructure. And sure enough, a threat heard around the world from President Donald Trump via social media—“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again”—was also heard inside Iran, alarming a country of more than 90 million.
Before the 8:30 pm EST deadline on April 7, tens of thousands in the capital, Tehran, reportedly fled north toward the Caspian Sea, while others stocked up on dry food, water bottles, and charged their electronics, fearing they would soon be without gas, power, and water (New York Times). I even received messages from diaspora Iranians with family in Iran asking whether a nuclear weapon might be used by the United States (X). However, the White House denied any such plans (The Hill).
Some Iranians said their goodbyes because it was unclear if they would ever be able to communicate again, or if they might die (X). Pro-regime Iranians, and even some nationalistic Iranians, formed human chains on bridges and stood in front of power plants (some even performed music) (NBC News). Millions waited for their fate, with many staying up for the 3:30 am Tehran time deadline. That was the impact of the president’s message, which, if acted upon, would have been a major violation of international humanitarian law. Then, about an hour before the deadline, a two-week ceasefire deal was announced (The Guardian).
According to the group Human Rights Activists in Iran, 1,701 civilians were killed in the war from its start on February 28 to the April 7 ceasefire, including at least 254 children. An additional 714 deaths remain under review.
It has now been roughly 1,000 hours since the state-imposed internet shutdown began on February 28 (Amnesty/Netblocks). What we know anecdotally is that even the news of the ceasefire was met with a variety of emotions because of the failure to oust the Islamic Republic. And to be clear, there was no regime change in Iran—just a facelift for a younger and more hardline Supreme Leader with the same last name: Khamenei.
Here’s how some Iranians reacted to the news of the ceasefire:
37-year-old Maral in the western city of Karaj:
“When I saw the ceasefire news, for a moment I felt relieved. The hell he [Trump] had threatened to unleashed had been stopped. Of course, when you see violence, the killing of civilians, it upsets you. But on the other hand, many people thought war would bring regime change. And now even war has not made the regime go.” (The Times)
40-year old Mojtaba in the northeast of Iran:
“The ceasefire was announced in a way that made it feel like the people were left on their own, facing a repressive regime alone. Ordinary people are very worried about the future and have less hope for change compared to before the war started.” (New York Times)
Journalist Elahe Mohammadi, who reported on the funeral of Mahsa Jina Amini and was imprisoned for it, wrote on X:
“For over a month now, we’ve been falling asleep to the sound of fighter jets and explosions, waking up to the same noises, and amid all this fear, we’re trying to carry on something resembling ‘life.’ Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, in the heart of calm and comfort, there are people sitting around talking about atomic bombs—as if they can’t fathom that here, every explosion could be the end of several lives, let alone an atomic bomb! We are, quite literally, trapped. Every day we lose the precious lives of civilians, we live in fear, we cry, sometimes we force a smile just to hold on, we wrestle from morning till night with configurations and all sorts of VPNs, and we live every moment with the question of whether the next minute will find our home still standing or not. For us, war isn’t just a news item or a political analysis. It’s the collapse, breath by breath, of life itself. Your war is our nightmare every single night. No to war, no to bombs, no to the decisions made from afar or up close that gamble with our lives.”
Roya Boroumand, executive director of the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran, shared the following from a 24-year-old student in Tehran when asked if they welcomed the ceasefire:
“No, no, absolutely not. One of my friend’s house was near the home of an IRGC commander who was killed by the United States and Israel. My friend’s house was destroyed too, and my friend had to pull the bodies of loved ones out from under the rubble. Do you know what he said? He said, ‘It does not matter if we die in this war, if this war leads to the destruction of the Islamic Republic.’ A ceasefire would only have been welcome if at least one clause of the agreement was about us, the people of Iran. But there is not even a single word about us. A ceasefire means execution lines, elimination, and repression. With this ceasefire, the world once again left us alone in the slaughterhouse of the clerics!”
These are, of course, just snapshots, but a broader pattern is clear: many Iranians feel this war has left them worse off—and with a regime that is more hardline, more repressive, and more emboldened now that it can close the Strait of Hormuz and send ripples that impact the world economy (X). Many anti-regime Iranians had been banking on the ouster of the Islamic Republic, and now, when the reality officially sinks in that they’re remaining in power for the time being, the psychological toll will be severe. There may be a mass exodus of Iranians leaving the country, alongside a rise in suicide rates—as seen after the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom uprising and again after the 12-day war in June 2025.
Nevertheless, the details of the two-week ceasefire remain confusing. Even Vice President JD Vance told reporters that three different versions were circulating, adding that “The first 10-point proposal was something that was submitted, and we think, frankly, was probably written by ChatGPT.” (Al Jazeera) That being said, I point to what Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said about the ceasefire on April 7:
“With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY…” (X)
If taken at face value, this would suggest both Iran and Israel violated the ceasefire shortly after. (X/CNBC). Just to give you a taste of the confusion: Iran and Pakistan say Lebanon is included in the deal, while the US and Israel say it isn’t. The talks scheduled in Islamabad on April 11 are expected to address these discrepancies, and the Iranians also got their wish that Vice President Vance—who has been skeptical of the conflict to begin with—is attending, making it the highest-level engagement between the two foes since 1979. However, as one US official put it: “We still don’t agree on what we are negotiating about.” (Axios) (If you have time, read this fascinating deep dive in the New York Times on how the US planned the war.)
The United States has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, while Tehran published its own 10-point plan, which includes several conditions Washington has rejected in the past (IranWire):
A complete halt to any aggression against Iran and its allied resistance groups.
Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region, along with a ban on launching attacks from bases against Iran and avoiding combat formations.
Restricted daily movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks, under “secure passage protocols” monitored and regulated by Iran.
Removal of all sanctions, including primary, secondary, and United Nations sanctions.
Compensation for damages suffered by Iran through the establishment of a financial and investment fund.
A commitment from Iran not to develop nuclear weapons.
Recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium by the US, along with discussions on enrichment levels.
Iran’s willingness to enter bilateral and multilateral peace agreements with regional countries, aligned with its interests.
Expansion of non-aggression commitments to include all actors against all resistance groups.
Ending all resolutions by the Board of Governors and the United Nations Security Council, and formalizing all commitments into an official UN resolution.
Notably, the Persian language version included “acceptance of enrichment” for its nuclear program, but the English version didn’t (The Guardian). While the US hasn’t made its proposal public, a White House official, not surprisingly, said the Iranian version didn’t align with the US version (New York Times). As seen above, the ceasefire remains fragile and shaped by maximalist demands that appear difficult to reconcile. But as with talks in the past, what continues to be forgotten is the Iranian people and what they want…
More soon,
Holly
P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.
In case you missed it, check out this panel I moderated, “IN THE DARK AND IN DANGER: Iran’s Internet Shutdown and Wartime Repression” featuring human rights advocate and actress Nazanin Boniadi, Roya Boroumand of the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center, and Mahsa Alimardani of WITNESS.