Update IX from The Iranist

May 1, 2026

Salam reader,

Coffee shops have remained open during the war, bringing solace and a sense of normalcy to some amid uncertain times in Iran (New York Times). But between the images of those ordinary moments of day-to-day life, pro-regime women carrying pink Kalashnikovs, and flag-waving pro-regime rallies, the narrative the Islamic Republic is constructing suggests that Tehran is unfazed by the war. That’s not the full picture—just the version the clerical establishment wants the world to see, boosted by Internet Pro or White SIMs that systemically silence much of Iranian society.

Digging deeper, the economy is in dire straits—and I’m not just referring to the impact of the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. This week, the Iranian rial hit 1.8 million to the US dollar, a historic low. To put the hyperinflation into perspective: in 1999, when I moved to Tehran, the exchange rate was 8,000 rials per US dollar. According to the Statistical Center of Iran report on inflation for the month of Farvardin 1405 (March 21-April 21), overall inflation has reached 73.5 percent, while food and beverage prices have surged 115 percent (X). To help Iranians get by, the Pezeshkian government approved a plan allowing households to receive cash subsidies, the equivalent of about $7 (which isn’t much), to purchase goods on credit. The program, however, applies only to supermarkets that opt in and requires a two-month repayment period (Iran International).

The war has impacted most sectors of the Iranian economy. Unemployment has affected everyone from flight attendants and journalists to refinery and textile workers and truck drivers. More than 23,000 factories and firms were hit by US/Israeli airstrikes, resulting in a million jobs lost, according to Deputy Work and Social Security Minister Gholamhossein Mohammadi (CNN). The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) estimates that up to 4.1 million more Iranians could fall into poverty due to the war.

Not surprisingly, the Supreme National Security Council reportedly met to address growing concern over renewed protests driven by economic hardship (Iran International).

As I’ve noted before, a state-imposed internet shutdown has been in place since the war began on February 28, and more is emerging about its economic impact. Iranian officials say the internet shutdown has left 20 percent of its 29.5 million workforce unemployed, many of whom operate online businesses, and warn that by the end of spring, up to two million private sector workers could lose their jobs (Iran International). E-commerce companies like the Iranian versions of Amazon, DoorDash, and Netflix—Digikala, Snappfood, and Aparat—are reporting hundreds of layoffs due to the blackout (X).

Artist Mohammed Modarres on the pain of being cut off from his family due to the state-imposed internet blackout (X).

On the other hand, Reuters reports that “Despite bad damage to infrastructure and ‌industries and an oil-export squeeze, Iran has plentiful internal supplies, steady trade with neighbors and only limited signs of immediate stress from state-revenue losses caused by the blockade.” At a Supreme National Security Council meeting, officials reportedly estimated that Tehran could withstand another six to eight weeks of the blockade, which began on April 13 (Iran International).

Meanwhile, CENTCOM has reportedly prepared a plan for a “short and powerful” wave of airstrikes on Iran, which likely includes infrastructure targets intended to pressure Tehran to break the negotiation deadline (Axios). According to reporting, the targets include “infrastructure,” which likely means civilian infrastructure, a war crime. This approach is not going to work and will only further harm ordinary Iranians already bearing the brunt of the war and its economic fallout.

That said, a regional source claims Tehran has delivered its response to the latest US amendments to a draft plan to end the war (Axios). Today was expected to be the day the Trump administration would seek Congressional approval under the War Powers Act to continue the conflict, but officials now argue the war effectively ended with the ceasefire (Washington Post).

In the background, repression, not surprisingly, continues to be on the rise. According to United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk, at least 4,000 Iranians have been arrested on national security charges. He noted:

“Many detainees have been forcibly disappeared, tortured, or subjected to other forms of cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment, including coerced—and sometimes televised—confessions and mock executions. Individuals from ethnic and religious minorities, including Bahá’ís, Zoroastrians, Kurds, and Baluch Iranians, have been at particular risk.” (OHCHR)

At least 22 political prisoners have been executed, many in secret (CHRI). Of those, ten were arrested during the January anti-regime uprising. On April 30, 21-year-old karate champion Sasan Azadvar, a protester from that uprising, was executed (IranWire). At least 44 protesters—including two women and three teenagers who were reportedly under the age of 18 at the time of arrest—have been sentenced to death in connection with the uprising (IHRNGO).

As Iran Human Rights Director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam put it:

“While the world’s attention remains focused on the war and ceasefire negotiations, the authorities continue to execute protesters. The Islamic Republic views its own people, especially the youth, as its primary existential threat, and uses the death penalty as a tool to silence dissent and maintain power.” (IHRNGO)

And yet, for Iranians, there is a small glimmer of hope: conservationists have recorded 21 new adult endangered Asiatic cheetahs and six cubs (New York Times). Even that, however, comes with a darker note—authorities arrested conservationist wildlife veterinarian Iman Memarian, without sharing the charges.

More soon,

Holly

P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.