Update IV from The Iranist
March 27, 2026
Salam reader,
Tomorrow marks one month since the Iran war began. It remains difficult to predict where things will go from here, but one point is clear: the United States can’t realistically end the war without securing the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes. That being said, President Donald Trump is reportedly looking for an off-ramp, one that ties to his publicly announced four- to six-week timeline (Wall Street Journal). It’s worth noting that Secretary of State Marco Rubio told G7 foreign ministers that the war will continue for another two to four weeks (Axios).
An unexpected trifecta of countries—Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan—has taken the lead in pushing for a diplomatic resolution. Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir has emerged as a key interlocutor and reportedly has close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) (New York Times). He has reached out to Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with a proposal for Pakistan to host talks between Iran and the United States—and it seems that the Trump administration thinks the speaker might be their Delcy Rodríguez (Politico).
For those not tracking, Ghalibaf has methodically climbed the ranks of the clerical establishment—serving as an IRGC member, police chief, Tehran mayor, and now parliamentary speaker—and has arguably been preparing for this moment his entire life. A four-time presidential candidate, the hardliner once described himself during the 2025 campaign as a “Hezbollahi Reza Shah,” or a religious version of the founder of the Pahlavi dynasty—and apparently has more in common with Trump than one would think (Reuters/Foreign Policy).
Still, analysts say he’s not the one to watch but rather the new IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi, who assumed the role after his predecessor was killed in the war (Telegraph). Vahidi is implicated both in the violent repression of the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom uprising and in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires (NBC News). Reports also indicate that Vahidi and other senior IRGC commanders reportedly pressured President Masoud Pezeshkian to appoint Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (Iran International). If confirmed, the move underscores the IRGC’s growing dominance within the power structure of the Islamic Republic. An anonymous senior Israeli official suggested that the Trump administration may have identified a channel with Tehran, a trio consisting of Ghalibaf, Major General Ali Abdollahi, and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (Al-Monitor).
Interestingly, Vice President JD Vance has taken on a more prominent role working to end the war alongside US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner—both of whom had been in talks with Iranian officials before the war began (Axios). This shift reportedly follows a preference from Tehran to engage Vance, likely due to his isolationist stance (CNN/The Guardian).
There is also increasing discussion of potential boots on the ground, though objectives remain unclear. According to Axios, the Pentagon is developing options for a “final blow,” which could include both ground operations and an expanded bombing campaign. Reported scenarios include:
Invading or blockading Kharg Island
Invading Larak Island, a strategic point in controlling the Strait
Seizing the three disputed islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb
Blocking or seizing tankers exporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the Strait
One Israeli official commented, “Those Marines aren’t coming for decoration,” referring to the sending of thousands of Marines and the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East (Washington Post). The official added that the new US deployment signals a plan “to take the island and the Strait,” referring to Kharg Island. The US military is also weighing options to secure Iran’s stockpile of 400 kg of highly enriched uranium or to carry out airstrikes on nuclear facilities to prevent Tehran from accessing buried material (Axios).
In parallel, the Trump administration sent a fifteen-point plan to Tehran via Pakistan that “calls on Iran to dismantle its three main nuclear sites and end any enrichment on Iranian soil, suspend its ballistic missile work, curb support for proxies and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” according to the Wall Street Journal. In return, nuclear-related sanctions would be removed, and the US would assist with and monitor the country’s civilian nuclear program. Iranian state media reported that Tehran rejected the demands, but an official said it is still weighing its options (Reuters). Iran’s negotiating stance, according to IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, includes:
Guarantee of the non-repetition of war
Closure of US military bases in the region
Repelling aggression and payment of compensation to Iran
Ending the war on all regional fronts
Implementation of a new legal regime for the Strait of Hormuz
Prosecution and extradition of anti-Iranian media operatives (an apparent reference to Iran International)
A US official called the demands “ridiculous and unrealistic,” though it is unclear whether the comment referred specifically to the outlined list above (Wall Street Journal).
Earlier in the week, concerns escalated when Trump threatened to target civilian infrastructure—which would punish the Iranian people—stating:
“If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST…” (X)
The US president has now set a new deadline of April 6 at 8 pm EST (X).
Meanwhile, the human cost continues to mount. Since the war began, at least 1,492 Iranian civilians have been killed, including more than 221 children, with hundreds more cases still under review, according to the group Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA).
The Tehran home of the late award-winning director Abbas Kiarostami was damaged in an airstrike (Deadline). The Islamic Republic was quick to jump on the news and publicize it for propaganda purposes. The late filmmaker’s son Ahmad Kiarostami had choice words for the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman:
“@IRIMFA_SPOX I remember the night #Kiarostami came back from Cannes bringing the first Palme d’Or home, and “brothers” (Iranian intelligence) were waiting for him at the airport to give him a lesson for the kiss he got on his cheeks. And I remember his masterpiece, Taste of Cherry, wasn’t permitted to screen in Iran for decades. To be clear I’m very much against this war and what the US and Israel is doing there, which is destroying ordinary people’s houses and lives. But I’m also strongly against what has been done in our country for decades to get us here. Can I be both? Since you seem to be worried about his house, know that the damage was limited to broken windows. As his son, I’m asking you to stop using my father’s name. Keep him out of your rhetoric. Hopefully that house will outlast those who have brought ruin to our homeland.” (X)
His comments thoughtfully capture some of the sentiment on the ground of anti-regime Iranians.
This war is also unfolding against a backdrop of deep societal trauma. Many anti-regime Iranians are still reeling from the unprecedented massacre that took place on January 8–9, an event that scarred a generation. One Iranian woman who left the country via Turkey said that many Iranians are still processing the events of January amid the war (X). She said, “We people are dead, and we don’t believe we’re alive. We want to see others die,” referring to feeling numb and wanting to see members of the regime killed in the war.
At the same time, repression continues largely out of view. The judiciary announced that cases tied to the January anti-regime uprising are reaching their final verdicts and are now being carried out (Iran International). In other words, there will be a surge in executions in the days and weeks ahead, an alarming development that risks being overshadowed by the war.
And yet, despite all this doom and gloom, Iranians are still living (The Times). In the capital Tehran, Iranians jog in parks and hang out at cafes. In the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, a viral image showed a child riding a swing by the beach as smoke billowed from a nearby naval base that was hit—a surreal juxtaposition of war and everyday life (X).
As one Iranian woman poignantly put it, “Somehow, thank God, the will to live is stronger than war.” (The Times).
More soon,
Holly
P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.