Update III from The Iranist
March 20, 2026
Salam reader,
Happy Nowruz (Iranian New Year)! I initially felt guilty about setting up my haft seen table (“seven S’s”) at home, but images of Iranians shopping for Nowruz during the war reminded me that they are still living—and we must honor that (X/X/X).
Earlier in the week was Chaharshanbeh Soori, the eve of the last Wednesday of the Iranian calendar year, better known in English as the fire festival. Despite a heavy security presence on the streets, Iranians in numerous towns and cities set off firecrackers, lit bonfires, and took part in rituals of purification (X/X/X/X). Some chanted anti-regime slogans or sang songs like the de facto national anthem, “Ey Iran” (“Oh Iran”). Others even joked that the killing of Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani on the same date was the best Nowruz gift (AP).
More reports are emerging about how the Islamic Republic continues to hold on to power, even as Israeli strikes in recent days appear increasingly focused on figures central to repression. Alongside Larijani—reportedly complicit in the unprecedented massacre in January—targets have included Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani and Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib (BBC News).
Yet despite this, there are growing concerns that the Islamic Republic may survive, and what emerges would be a rump regime that is more hardline and repressive (Reuters). Through this war, President Donald Trump appeared to be aiming for a Venezuela-style outcome, but the trajectory may instead push Tehran closer to a North Korea–like model. If given the choice, the Islamic Republic would likely pursue a nuclear weapon as a deterrent against future conflict.
With the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, much of the news this week has centered on Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub—often referred to as its “crown jewel”—and the possibility that the United States could deploy Marines there, putting boots on the ground on Iranian territory. Notably, Trump had his eye on the island as early as 1988. During the Iran-Iraq War, he said that if Iran attacked US forces, “I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it.” (New York Times)
There were already more than half a dozen attacks on Arab energy infrastructure by Tehran before Israel targeted Iran’s South Pars gas field on March 18, which provides roughly 80 percent of the country’s gas supply and is an extension of Qatar’s North Field (CNN/X). Tehran responded by attacking Doha again (Reuters). These strikes appear to have frustrated Trump, according to reports, due to their impact on oil prices. The president has sought to keep prices low, even by removing sanctions on Russian oil and, soon, on Iranian oil at sea—yes, you read that right (Axios/Reuters).
Now, the war aims appear to be diverging. One senior Trump administration official put it bluntly:
“Israel is pursuing a scorched-earth campaign of regime change, which is not what our goal is. [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] Bibi wants to wreck Iran’s economy and decimate its energy infrastructure. Trump wants to keep it intact.” (Washington Post)
If that’s the case, this approach runs counter to the Iranian people and how they view their country’s oil and gas as their national wealth, not the Islamic Republic’s.
As we enter week four of the war on March 21, with limited communication to loved ones during a time of year when we all speak via WhatsApp video and FaceTime, the internet shutdown continues (New York Times). According to NetBlocks, “The incident is now the longest recorded shutdown in Iran’s history, surpassing the blackout imposed during protests in January.” (X)
Meanwhile, the security apparatus is intensifying pressure on the population. On March 18, Kouroush Keyvani, a dual Iranian-Swedish national, was executed on allegations of spying for Israel (Reuters). Part of his indictment reportedly stemmed from possession of a Starlink device, which authorities are increasingly cracking down on and using to accuse individuals of espionage on behalf of Israel and the United States (CBS News).
Then, on March 19, three men—including 19-year-old wrestler and national team member Saleh Mohammadi—were executed for allegedly killing two police officers during the January anti-regime uprising (New York Times). Human rights organizations are sounding the alarm over a surge in executions (IHRNGO). I wrote more about the risks Iranians face if the regime survives in my recent essay for New Lines Magazine.
According to Human Rights Activists in Iran, as of March 19, civilian fatalities during the war stand at 1,394 people, including at least 210 children (HRANA). Their newly released annual report for the Iranian calendar year (March 21, 2025 – March 20, 2026) paints a grim picture: at least 78,126 individuals were arrested for expressing their views, and at least 2,488 people were executed, including 63 women and two juvenile offenders (HRANA).
I’ll leave you with one rare piece of good news in this moment: an endangered Asiatic cheetah has given birth to five cubs, and the mother and her babies are doing well (X).
My analyst brain may have dark conclusions about the future of Iran at this juncture, but Nowruz means “new day” in Persian, and I still hold on to hope for a new Iran—one that is free.
More soon,
Holly
P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.