Update II from The Iranist
March 13, 2026
Salam reader,
Scenes from Tehran earlier this week made the capital look like something out of an apocalyptic film—or as one Iranian social media user’s now-deleted post described, Mordor from The Lord of the Rings (X/X/X). Israeli air strikes targeted oil depots in the capital, to the dismay of Iranians across the political spectrum—and even some Iran hawks in Washington, including Senator Lindsey Graham (X/X).
Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion has taken several steps that run contrary to its stated support for the Iranian people. First came reports about the CIA and Israeli intelligence agency Mossad arming Kurdish-Iranian groups (Axios/CNN). Those plans were reportedly walked back, though according to the UK’s Channel 4, there are groups positioned along the border, ready and armed. Then, President Donald Trump made remarks suggesting the map of Iran would “probably not” look the same after the war—comments that set off alarm bells about the country’s territorial integrity (Newsweek). Both developments play into the hands of the Islamic Republic’s long-standing narrative that the United States and Israel seek the “Syrianization” of Iran—that is, to cut up the country.
Meanwhile, initial US assessments suggest that an American Tomahawk missile—which Tehran doesn’t possess—was likely responsible for the strike on the all-girls Shajareh Tayyebeh School in the town of Minab in southern Hormozgan province, which killed at least 175, most of them children. (New York Times). According to Human Rights Activists in Iran, since the war began 1,286 civilians—including 200 children—were killed (with 337 under review) (HRANA). The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees said some 3.2 million Iranians have already been displaced (Wall Street Journal).
There have also been reports of air strikes near some of Iran’s prominent historic sites, including the Golestan Palace in Tehran—where Reza Shah and Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi held their coronations, and where Shahbanoo Farah was later crowned empress—and the Chehel Sotoon Palace in Esfahan, a jewel of the city known for its “forty pillars” (X/The Guardian/AP). These monuments have survived two world wars, the 1979 revolution, and the Iran-Iraq War. As Naghmeh Sohrabi, director for research at Brandeis University’s Crown Center for Middle East Studies, explains:
“These sites carry historical memory that transcend ideology. They are living breathing monuments to beauty and creation, not just for Iranians but for all of us in the world.” (New York Times)
Amid the war, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of recently killed supreme leader, was named heir apparent. Khamenei Junior has yet to make a public appearance. Some reports suggest he was seriously injured, possibly losing a leg, in the February 28 strike that killed his parents, wife, and brother-in-law (CNN). On March 12, he released a written statement calling for the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and for the United States to be pushed out of the Middle East—hardly the language of a Saudi-style modernizer like Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that some analysts tried to cast him as in the past (New York Times). Khamenei added, “We will not refrain from avenging the blood of your martyrs,” referring to the Iranian people. He is likely hiding in a bunker. Another possibility, however, is that the new Supreme Leader may be in a coma—or even dead—and the Islamic Republic is using the veneer of a succession to project continuity and strength during wartime.
Dubbed Operation Madman, Tehran’s strategy appears to be banking on Trump to blink first (New York Times). The IRGC has launched missiles and drones across the region in hopes of provoking pressure from Arab allies for a ceasefire. They likely also believed that the news of slain American soldiers—eight so far and 140 injured—could also shift the political calculus in Washington (PBS News). Another lever has been the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes. President Trump has tried to keep energy prices down through his rhetoric and the temporary removal of sanctions on Russian oil shipments (Washington Post). So far, however, it doesn’t seem to have much of an impact on prices (New York Times). Not surprisingly, given that much of the clerical establishment is still alive, US intelligence suggests that the regime is “largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon,” according to Reuters.
Internet access across Iran remains largely shut off—with the exception of Starlink and some state-approved VPNs—making it difficult for people to communicate with relatives abroad or share images and videos of what is happening on the ground (X). Still, the security apparatus continues to show force on the streets and through growing threats of transnational repression against the diaspora (Instagram). One diaspora Iranian wrote to me:
“They called one of my friend’s parents in Iran yesterday and told them that their daughter has been identified. She will be arrested if she goes to Iran, and they’re going to seize her property.” (X)
US-based Kiana Danial wrote on X:
“My mom just called me crying because the Islamic regime has threatened them if I continue posting about Iran. This is who this regime is.” (X)
Separately, members of the Iranian women’s national soccer team were reportedly warned by Iranian officials about their conduct abroad after they refused to sing the national anthem at the 2026 AFC Women’s Asian Cup in Australia. It soon became clear the players were under pressure (New York Times). The Iranian diaspora quickly mobilized with protests and urged the Australian government not to allow the players to leave—especially after some were seen making SOS hand signals on their team bus. In the end, six of the players stayed behind and were granted humanitarian visas, allowing them to remain permanently in Australia (CBS News).
On the ground, the mood in Iran remains complex. One woman described the emotional tension this way:
“If you have never lived in a prison state, if you’ve never had to search rows of body bags for your child, you cannot understand why we celebrated when the attacks killed our oppressors. It felt like long-awaited justice. My children are afraid of the bombs. And I am afraid for their future if this regime survives.” (TIME)
The feelings for Tehranis, where the bombing is the most intense, are more complicated:
“I was always against these people and thought it would be limited and finished fast. I regret that and take it back. They are turning the country into ruins.” (NBC News)
In the northwestern city of Arak, a group of Iranian men joked as bombs fell nearby. One said, “Sir, can I get you a cigarette?” apparently addressing the pilot overhead (X).
Iran is a country of ninety million people. That means ninety million different feelings—and sometimes all of them at once.
More soon,
Holly
P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.