Update II from the Iranist
January 17, 2026
Salam reader,
It’s been a devastating week for diaspora Iranians, watching in horror as a massacre unfolded after the communications shutdown on January 8.
On January 13, diaspora Iranians—myself included—began receiving one-way landline calls from Iran, but the internet remains shut down. According to IranWire, an Iranian official said access will not be restored until Nowruz, the Iranian New Year, on March 20. However, there was a “short-lived bump” in connectivity that allowed some to reach family and friends in Iran (X). If the Nowruz assessment is true, it suggests the Islamic Republic is attempting to manage public anger while concealing from the world the unprecedented scale of violence carried out by security forces—described as crimes against humanity by some human rights organizations—in various parts of Iran.
The testimonies and footage that have emerged via Starlink—used by an estimated 50,000–60,000 people with smuggled terminals—along with landlines and Iranians who have left the country, grow more unfathomable and gruesome by the day (X/Instagram/X/Instagram).
Eyewitnesses describe scenes resembling a “war zone”: shortages of body bags, blood for transfusions, and overwhelmed morgues. At Tehran’s largest cemetery, Behesht-e Zahra (Zahra’s Paradise), the high volume of the dead has reportedly forced authorities to abandon fees for grave plots and burial shrouds altogether, and to rely on fingerprint scanners to process bodies at speed (X).
Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) shared its latest figures with me:
Protesters killed: 2,890 (19 of those are under the age of 18)
Security forces killed: 165 (According to eyewitnesses and reporting by the Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI), families are being forced to declare their slain loved ones as “martyred” Basij in order to retrieve their bodies.)
Arrested: 23,009
Force confessions: 133 (Those subjected to forced confessions face sham trials and are likely to receive death sentences.)
An Iranian health ministry official told the New York Times that 3,000 people were killed, while another official told Reuters the figure was around 2,000. Such statements by Iranian officials only prove that the true death toll is far higher than what they claim.
Multiple media outlets, including Iran International, have reported that more than 12,000 protesters were killed. CBS News has cited estimates of “at least 12,000, and possibly as many as 20,000 people have been killed.” A diplomat I spoke with said their embassy in Tehran believes a death toll of more than 12,000 is an accurate assessment.
A Syrian friend, upon seeing the unthinkable numbers reported by CBS News, texted me: “It took Syria months to reach those figures” in 2011 (X). The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force helped prop up Bashar al-Assad’s regime and carry out atrocities in Syria for more than a decade. Now, with its own survival at risk, the Islamic Republic used the same playbook on the Iranian people.
More soon,
Holly
P.S. Read my New York Times op-ed on the anti-regime protests and why this time is different—and watch this important panel discussion on the topic and President Donald Trump’s policy options.
Also, feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing recent interviews and commentary.