Underreported prisoner swap, Iran enriching at 60 percent—and more
The Iranist for the week of February 28, 2025
THE هفت/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:
۱/1 Iran enriching at 60 percent
On February 26, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released two quarterly reports revealing that Iran has sharply accelerated its enriched uranium to 60 percent (Reuters). The amount is a “short, technical step away” from 90 percent weapons grade (AP). In its November 2024 report, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile stood at 182.3 kilograms. It has now risen to 274.8 kilograms—an increase of 92.5 kilograms.
In January, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned that Iran has enough enriched uranium to make “several” nuclear bombs if it chooses to (Washington Post). Per the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that the first Donald Trump administration withdrew from in 2018, Iran was only allowed to enrich at 3.67 percent.
On the same day as the reports were shared, Grossi said that Iran’s nuclear activities are a growing problem and urged Tehran and Washington to talk (Wall Street Journal). He added, “It is problematic that we are not moving... We believe it is necessary to move to action.”
CONCERNS ABOUT A STRIKE. The Telegraph reported that the Islamic Republic has been bolstering defenses around key nuclear and missile sites amid fears of an attack by Israel and the United States. Meanwhile, on February 26, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said, “I think that in order to stop a nuclear Iranian program before it will be weaponized, a reliable military option should be on the table,” noting that “we don’t have much time.” (Politico)
The US Treasury Department also imposed new sanctions on Iran’s oil industry (Reuters). Iran International claims that over half of the sanctioned tankers have ceased operations at Iranian and Chinese terminals.
۲/2 Russian foreign minister visits Tehran for a day
On February 25, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a one-day trip to Tehran (Reuters). The visit comes just days after Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with his Russian counterpart in Saudi Arabia—the first time for a US official since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022.
Lavrov reportedly talked about an array of bilateral and regional issues—which included Syria—with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian. He also noted a 13 percent increase in bilateral trade (Al-Monitor). An Iranian foreign ministry statement said, “Positions were aligned on the situation around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian nuclear program.”
During a joint presser, Araghchi said:
“Iran’s position regarding nuclear talks is clear and we will not negotiate under pressure and sanctions. There is no possibility of direct negotiations with the US as long as maximum pressure is being applied in this way.” (Reuters)
The visit, which was only for one day, may be as Radio Farda points out because “the Kremlin [is] checking in to make sure Iran’s stance on key issues is in line with Moscow—especially regarding relations with Washington—or that Lavrov could be delivering a message from the Saudi Arabian talks.”
Some concern has been expressed by Iranian officials and state media outlets that Russia could be selling Iran to have closer ties to the United States (RFE/RL). On February 25, Conservative daily Jomhuri Eslami warned of a “grand bargain” between the United States and Russia that could result in Moscow “turning a blind eye” to a potential US strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Similar comments were made by Iran’s former ambassador to Germany, Ali Majedi, who said that if Tehran doesn’t make a deal with the Washington, it could end up becoming a bargaining chip between the US, Russia, and Europe (RFE/RL).
Interestingly, on February 26, Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida reported that Moscow offered to mediate between the US and Iran, a message that was conveyed by Secretary Rubio while in Riyadh (MEMO). Lavrov reportedly said that dealing with the US directly is more beneficial than dealing with Europe, which failed to revive the original JCPOA. Per the report:
“The new American offer includes conducting gradual negotiations starting with talks at the expert level, and if these talks yield tangible progress, negotiations will move to the level of foreign ministers, in preparation for signing a direct agreement between President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian.”
FYI: Al-Jarida has an unreliable reporting history.
۳/3 Five-year-old killed by security forces in Sistan and Baluchestan
In a viral video, Yousef Shahlibar’s father declares, “Israel didn’t kill him, the Islamic Republic’s security forces did!” (X) His pregnant mother was also injured and miscarried.
۴/4 Netherlands and Iran conduct apparent prisoner swap
۵/5 Exiles sue former shah’s ‘chief torturer’ in Florida
۶/6 Australian senator apologizes for claiming women’s ‘voices are heard’ in Iran
Australian Senator Fatima Payman’s comments to state-owned broadcaster Press TV sparked outrage on social media. Activist Kosar Eftekhari, one of the protesters systemically shot in the eye by security forces during the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom uprising wrote on X:
“I am a woman from Iran, and I testify that you, @SenatorPayman, are lying. Look me in the eye, if you dare, and repeat your words. The Islamic Republic shot me for protesting my sister Mahsa Amini’s murder. I had only my voice; they took my eye.”
۷/7 Iranians for Trump co-founder reportedly assaulted by married congressman she was alone with
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human Rights
۰ Seven prisoners executed in Isfahan prison (IranWire)
۰ Two men at risk of execution after torture: Behrouz Ehsani and Mehdi Hassani (Amnesty International)
۰ Women’s rights defender resentenced to death: Sharifeh Mohammadi (Amnesty International)
۰ Traditional singer Hiwa Seyfizadeh arrested (HRANA)
۰ Courts deny basic rights to ethnic minority activists (IranWire)
۰ ‘Free Narges’ coalition warns Nobel winner may return to prison (IranWire)
۰ Security forces building cases against Dehdasht protesters (IranWire)
۰ This Christian convert fled Iran, and ran into Trump’s deportation policy (New York Times)
۰ Joint statement: Stop the imminent deportation of activist Nahid Modarresi (CHRI)
Domestic Issues
۰ Woman killed by husband near Tehran (IranWire)
۰ Pharmacists protest over unpaid insurance debts (IranWire)
۰ Iranians frustrated as energy crisis shuts down schools and businesses (IranWire)
۰ Iran records 700 annual workplace deaths (IranWire)
۰ Iran police summons 15 online blind date organizers (IranWire)
۰ Survey: Half of internet users expect no censorship relief (IranWire)
۰ Iran’s government hits out at crypto again as currency freefalls (Al Jazeera)
۰ Security forces clash with armed group in Chabahar (IranWire)
Foreign Policy + Security
۰ Trump rails against Biden’s Iran policy in CPAC speech (Iran International)
۰ Former navy sailor pleads guilty to plotting to attack Naval Station Great Lakes in North Chicago (Justice.gov)
۰ Iran’s navy and IRGC hold missile drill in Indian Ocean as FM rules out US talks (Al-Monitor)
۰ Israeli arrested after photographing Shin Bet head’s house for Iran (Jerusalem Post)
۰ Israeli reporter details the classified materials he found at Iran’s embassy in Damascus soon after Assad’s fall (Times of Israel)
۰ Israel will be wiped out in a major attack ‘at the right time’, IRGC general says (Iran International)
۰ Hezbollah facing financial squeeze as supply lines from Iran are severed (Washington Post)
۰ As Nasrallah is buried, Iran insists ‘Axis of Resistance’ will endure (Amwaj.Media)
۰ Saudi, Iran FM discuss regional developments (MEMO)
۰ Iranian gang members granted citizenship in Turkey, indictment reveals (Turkish Minute)
Iran Deal + Sanctions
۰ Russian, Iranian oil supply to China rebounds as new vessels cash in on the trade (Reuters)
۰ Iran oil flows seen curbed by rush for unsanctioned tankers (Bloomberg)
۰ Bipartisan bill aims to expand sanctions on Iran’s energy sector (Iran International)
۰ Iran and Brazil mulling trade in national currencies (Iran International)
Diaspora
۰ Reza Pahlavi: My country is on the brink of a revolution like that of 1979 (Telegraph)
۰ Historic announcement of ‘CPAC for Iranians in Exile’ (UANI)
GOOD ONE