The war on Iranian women, Operation True Promise—and more
The war on Iranian women, Operation True Promise—and more
The Iranist for the week of April 18, 2024
۱/1 The Israel-Iran shadow war is over
On April 13 (April 14 local), Iran retaliated directly against Israel—moving the decades-long shadow war out into the open. It was the second time in several months that Iran had retaliated against a nuclear-armed state (the other being Pakistan).
Operation True Promise, as referred to by Tehran, was in response to the April 1 airstrike on a four-story building in the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, that killed senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) foreign arm, the Quds Force.
What did Iran fire? According to Israeli officials, Iran and its proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen fired 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles, and 36 cruise missiles (New York Times). Ninety-nine percent of the incoming barrage was intercepted, with the exception of some ballistic missiles (X).
Tehran gave a 72-hour warning, allowing the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to share intelligence privately (Wall Street Journal).
The Wall Street Journal reported that:
“Two days before the attack, Iranian officials briefed counterparts from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries on the outlines and timing of their plan for the large-scale strikes on Israel so that those countries could safeguard airspace… The information was passed along to the US, giving Washington and Israel crucial advance warning…”
When the operation began, per the Washington Post:
“Israel’s vaunted missile defense systems ramped up to engage the munitions… But they were flanked by US and British fighter jets, a Patriot missile defense system manned by US troops in Iraq, and US destroyers off the coast of Israel, each ready to assist.”
Meanwhile, Jordan closed its airspace for “precautionary reasons.” Once the barrage started, the Jordanian Air Force intercepted and shot down dozens of drones that had violated its airspace and were heading to Israel (Reuters). France also took part in intercepting drones over Jordanian airspace as it has “an airbase in Jordan to fight terrorism.” (AFP)
Where did they land? With 99 percent of the projectiles intercepted, only a few ballistic missiles surpassed Israeli defenses. Much of the footage from Israel was of the country’s multilayered air defense systems—Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow 2 and 3—taking out the barrage, as evident by the astonishing footage of Jerusalem’s Dome of the Rock (Haram al-Sharif) (X).
The main target appears to have been the Nevatim airbase, where Israel houses its most advanced aircraft, the F-35 stealth fighter jet (Times of Israel). This airbase in southern Israel only had minor damage to its infrastructure but is reportedly “operating as usual” again. It’s worth noting that two months ago, Iran conducted a military drill simulating a strike on the airbase (Business Insider).
No one was killed, but a 7-year-old girl from a Bedouin village in the south is in serious condition after being injured by shrapnel from an intercepted projectile (Wall Street Journal).
What has Iran said since? Even before all the drones and missiles had reached Israel, the Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations issued a statement citing Article 51 of the UN Charter to justify its retaliation against Israel and declared that “the matter can be deemed concluded.” (X)
Meanwhile, on April 14, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said, “The punishment of the aggressor, which was the sincere promise of the powerful and wise leader of the Islamic Revolution, has come true.” He called Tehran’s response a “defensive measure” that sent a “combined operational message.” (Washington Post)
How did the US react? On April 13, the White House issued a statement from President Joe Biden:
“I’ve just spoken with Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu to reaffirm America’s ironclad commitment to the security of Israel… And while we have not seen attacks on our forces or facilities today, we will remain vigilant to all threats and will not hesitate to take all necessary action to protect our people.” (White House)
The following day, US officials said that President Biden told Netanyahu that the United States would not partake in an offensive strike on Iran. The US president reportedly told the Israeli prime minister, “You got a win. Take the win.” (CNN)
How did the international community react? On April 14, the United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting at Israel’s request to discuss the Iranian retaliation (New York Times). Secretary-General António Guterres said it was “time to step back from the brink” and that all parties—including the United Nations—had a collective responsibility “to actively engage all parties concerned to prevent further escalation.”
Separately, on April 14, after convening virtually, the Group of 7 leaders (G7) unequivocally condemned” Iran and showed “full solidarity and support to Israel and its people and reaffirm [their] commitment towards its security.” (G7)
The European Union condemned Iran “in the strongest terms” and reiterated “its commitment to the security of Israel” while emphasizing that both sides “exercise utmost restraint.” (Europa.eu)
On April 18, the United States and United Kingdom imposed new sanctions on Iranian military figures and entities tied to Iran’s “de-stabilizing regional activity.” (Politico)
How did ordinary Iranians react? Upon the news, pro-regime Iranians took to the streets in several cities, including the capital, Tehran, to celebrate. They also gathered at the graves of assassinated Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani in Kerman and IRGC Quds Force commander for Lebanon and Syria Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, whom Israel had just assassinated, in Esfahan. These gatherings appeared to be pre-planned and state-organized, given that it was past midnight in Iran.
Separately, some Iranians worried about an escalation. Some lined up in kilometers-long lines to fill up their cars with gas and, in some instances, hit convenience stores to buy essentials (X).
But as CBS News highlights:
“Since the Iranian attack on Israel, there have been no signs that the Islamic Republic is preparing for a war. Far from political and military leaders running for bunkers in fear of an Israeli reprisal strike, there have been no military drills, schools remain open. Iranian authorities haven't imposed any restrictions on air traffic.”
Nevertheless, there is a seeming divide amongst Iranians, as IranWire notes:
“Some feared the possibility of war, while others harbored hopes that a conflict would arise as a means to overthrow the Islamic Republic.”
Meanwhile, IRGC intelligence issued a notice that if citizens see any activities online in support of Israel or against the retaliation, to flag the social media accounts so that they can be identified and treated like “criminals.” (X)
Will Israel retaliate? Israel has said it will respond, but the timing and plans are unclear (AP). Many Western leaders have called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to show restraint (New York Times). For more than a decade, Netanyahu has wanted to target Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, to the surprise of many, he reportedly was one of the few within the Israeli war cabinet who approached the matter with hesitation (Axios).
Some options Israel might consider include cyberattacks, assassinations, airstrikes on IRGC strongholds in the region, and, most concerning, an attack on nuclear and defense facilities in Iran.
Tehran has warned that any strike on Iranian interests would be reciprocated in kind.
UPDATE: I mistakenly wrote F-25 instead of F-35.
۲/2 The war on Iranian women
On April 13, the same day that the Iranian retaliation took place, the so-called morality police and plainclothes agents began cracking down on women for not abiding by mandatory hijab rules. Days earlier, Tehran’s police announced the new phase of tightening control on Iranian women and businesses that fail to adhere to the rules known as the Noor (“light”) initiative (Iran International). The move is part of the controversial “Hijab and Chasity bill” that passed last year in parliament, even though the draconian bill has not been approved by the twelve-member vetting body, the Guardian Council.
Since the Women, Life, Freedom uprising, there has been a decline in women abiding by mandatory hijab rules, and as the weather gets warmer, authorities usually execute new initiatives to enforce mandatory hijab. However, this is also likely a way to clamp down on dissent in the wake of Israel-Iran tensions.
According to videos posted on social media, Iranian women have been assaulted and violently pushed in morality police vans, car windows have been broken with batons, and others have had their vehicles seized (CHRI). In one instance, a young woman had a seizure and was not helped by the police (X). Those filming the incident were reportedly arrested after the video went viral. Now Iranians are making comparisons of the scene to the killing of Neda Agha Soltan by the security forces, the de facto face of the 2009 post-election protests known as the Green Movement (X).
The Center for Human Rights in Iran called it “[the state’s] most significant show of force since the Women, Life, Freedom uprising.” (X)
In a message from Evin Prison, Nobel Laurate Narges Mohammadi wrote on April 17:
“The Islamic Republic has turned the streets into a battlefield against women and youth in an attempt to alleviate the untreated pain of illegitimacy and the collapse of its authority through intimidation and fear. It seeks to remedy the weakness and absurdity of its claims on the global stage through shameful domination and brute force domestically.” (Instagram)
Persian language social media users are describing the crackdown as a “war against women” and using the hashtag جنگ_علیه_زنان# to document their experiences and observations (IranWire).
Some of the commentary posted on social media (Instagram):
“War? Look at the streets and squares. The field of war on women.”
“I don’t really know, as a woman, tomorrow I will be hit in the head with a missile or a [morality police’s] baton.”
“Still, [for Iranian women] dying inside a morality police van is more likely than dying because of a foreign country’s attack.”
۳/3 University student arrested after claiming morality police sexually assaulted her
۴/4 Senate Foreign Relations Committee passes MAHSA Act with amendments
۵/5 Iranian FM travels to New York for UNSC meeting
On April 18, the Iranian foreign minister attended a United Nations Security Council meeting to vote on granting the observer State of Palestine full membership in the United Nations. (Bloomberg). Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has visited the United Nations twice since the Gaza war started in October 2023. Iranian activists and Republican members of Congress have repeatedly called on the State Department to bar the Iranian foreign minister’s visits, including Senator James Lankford (R-OK), who wrote a letter on April 18 to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken about the issue (X). In March, twenty-seven lawmakers signed a letter calling on the State Department to decline all Iranian officials’ entry to the United States (Iran International).
A source told CNN that the delegation’s travel is:
“restricted to the seven blocks north-south and one block west surrounding the UN headquarters in Manhattan, the Iranian Mission to the UN, the residence of their permanent representative to the UN, the six blocks surrounding Queensboro Plaza in Long Island City, and access to John F. Kennedy International Airport using a specific driving route.”
However, the Iranian mission claims it wasn’t notified of any additional restrictions (CNN).
It’s worth noting that the Iranian delegation and diplomats at the Iranian mission have always been restricted to a 25-mile radius surrounding the United Nations headquarters in Manhattan.
As Iran International points out:
“The US is generally required to allow foreign diplomats access to the United Nations under the 1947 ‘headquarters agreement’—though Washington can refuse visas for reasons related to security, terrorism, and foreign policy.”
۶/6 “I wish I had known as a young girl growing up in rural Iraq that women like Narges Mohammadi existed.”
Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi makes it into the TIME100: The Most Influential People of 2024. Read the profile by fellow laureate Nadia Murad.
۷/7 Israel found secret letters that show Iran made £200 million in payments to Hamas
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Iran executes eight for drug offenses as death penalties rise (IranWire)
۰ 27-year-old executed, denied family visit (IranWire)
۰ Tortured and in deteriorating health, woman activist should be immediately released (CHRI)
۰ Kurdish activist faces paralysis risk in prison due to medical neglect (IranWire)
۰ Artist arrested on blasphemy charges, refuses bail in protest (IranWire)
۰ Medical student summoned amid crackdown on women (IranWire)
۰ Iran arrests former goalkeeper's wife, daughter for not wearing hijab (IranWire)
۰ 320 activists demand release of jailed scholar Sedigheh Vasmaghi (IranWire)
Foreign policy + security
۰ How London became a ‘hot spot’ for threats against Iranian journalists (New York Times)
۰ Iran seizes commercial ship linked to Israel (New York Times)
۰ Turkey’s Fidan in Qatar to contain Iran-Israel tensions, meet Hamas leaders (Al-Monitor)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ With nuclear deal dead, containing Iran grows more fraught (New York Times)
۰ Rishi Sunak resists calls to proscribe Iran’s Revolutionary Guard
۰ Poland investigating if Orlen unit breached oil sanctions, report says (Reuters)
۰ House votes to sanction China’s Purchase of Iranian oil (Bloomberg)
۰ Biden unlikely to cut Iran's oil lifeline after Israel attack (Reuters)