Tehran rearming proxies, suspicious gas leaks—and more
The Iranist for the week of July 18, 2025
THE هفت/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:
۱/1 Snapback may be coming soon
WILL TALKS RESUME? On July 14, the Iranian foreign ministry stated that “no specific date” had been set for another round of nuclear talks (Times of Israel). Negotiations were set in Oman for June 15, but Israel attacked Iran before they could commence.
On July 16, US President Donald Trump said to reporters while meeting with Bahraini Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa:
“They want to negotiate. They want to negotiate badly. We’re in no rush. They should have made a deal. And then we bombed the hell out of their various places… But if they want to negotiate, we’re here.” (Diplomatic)
Trump might be on to something, as some analysts inside and outside of Iran believe a consensus is being forged to negotiate with the United States (Washington Post).
Meanwhile, Russia encouraged Tehran to agree to “zero enrichment,” according to three European officials and one Israeli official (Axios).
SNAPBACK SOON? On July 15, the E3—Britain, France, and Germany—agreed to snapback United Nations sanctions on Iran on August 29 if there is no progress on a nuclear deal, according to two European diplomats (AP/The Guardian). The snapback mechanism, part of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), allows parties to reimpose UN sanctions that were lifted if Tehran fails to meet its nuclear commitments. The JCPOA doesn’t allow permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—such as China and Russia—to veto the reimposition of sanctions. However, the E3 does have the ability to defer snapback beyond October—a key date as the snapback provision expires on October 18, marking ten years since the JCPOA was adopted. The United States cannot trigger the mechanism because it withdrew from the deal in 2018.
The August date set by the E3 allows for a 30-day negotiation period before sanctions are restored, thereby maintaining leverage over Tehran (New York Times). The Europeans want to complete this process before Russia—an ally of Iran—takes over the UN Security Council presidency in October.
Interestingly, there was concern amongst the Europeans and Israelis that the Trump administration would press the E3 “ not to trigger the snapback sanctions so as not to harm potential negotiations.” (Axios) The issue was raised last week during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Washington visit. An anonymous Israeli official said, “We felt that Trump and his team agreed with us.” (Axios)
Responding to the news, on July 14, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said:
“The threat to use the snapback mechanism lacks legal and political basis and will be met with an appropriate and proportionate response from the Islamic Republic of Iran. The European parties, who are constantly trying to use this possibility as a tool, have themselves committed gross and fundamental violations of their obligations under the JCPOA. They have failed to fulfill the duties they had undertaken under the JCPOA, so they have no legal or moral standing to resort to this mechanism.” (Reuters)
Tehran has repeatedly threatened that it would respond with its own measures.
Meanwhile, some hardline groups are calling on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to declare jihad against the United States and Israel (IranWire). Separately, Green Movement leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, who has been under house arrest since 2011, called for a constitutional referendum (IranWire). Most Iranians still think the ceasefire won’t hold (IranWire).
STATUS OF THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM On July 10, an anonymous Israeli official said that Israel believes deeply buried stocks of enriched uranium at the Isfahan nuclear facility hit by the US are potentially retrievable but would be a very difficult recovery effort (AP).
On July 17, NBC News reported that one of the three nuclear enrichment sites—Fordow—“was mostly destroyed, setting work there back significantly” up to two years. The New York Times also reported similarly. Spokespersons for the White House and Pentagon denied the reports. Interestingly, US Central Command reportedly had “developed a much more comprehensive plan to strike Iran that would have involved hitting three additional sites in an operation that would have stretched for several weeks instead of a single night,” which President Trump rejected because he didn’t want the United States dragged into a longer conflict with Tehran (NBC News).
On July 10, President Masoud Pezeshkian told European Council President Antonio Costa: “The continuation of Iran’s cooperation with the [International Atomic Energy Agency] depends on the latter correcting its double standards regarding the nuclear file.” (Al Jazeera) He added, “Any repeated aggression against Iran will be met with a more decisive and regrettable response.”
۲/2 President Pezeshkian reportedly injured during one of Israel's attacks
Two US intelligence sources confirmed to CBS News.
۳/3 Tehran is trying to rearm proxies across the Middle East
۴/4 Israel spying accusations are fueling racist attacks on Afghans in Iran
The International Federation of the Red Cross said:
“Afghan children returning from Iran are developing scabies, fever, and other illnesses because of deteriorating conditions at the border and the hot weather.” (AP)
۵/5 Is Israel behind the latest events in Iran?
On July 14, an explosion at a residential building in the central city of Qom injured seven people (Reuters). A preliminary investigation by the fire department blamed a gas leak in the Pardisan neighborhood, while Qom Governor Akbar Behnamjoo denied it was an act of terrorism. The next day, on July 15, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Gholamhossein Gheybparvar reportedly passed away from “illness caused by chemical injuries” during the Iran-Iraq War (Iran International). Gheybparvar was the deputy commander of the Imam Ali base and was known for overseeing the suppression of protests.
Just days earlier, on July 10, an explosion occurred at a residential building in Tehran’s Chitgar neighborhood, an area built by the armed forces (Al Jazeera). A gas leak was blamed, and notably, seven were also injured. On July 11, state media reported the death of Ali Taeb, a senior Muslim scholar and former representative of the supreme leader at the Sarallah Headquarters, the IRGC’s key domestic security command (Iran International).
Since the June 24 ceasefire between Iran and Israel, a spate of blasts and fires across Iran—including in Karaj, Mashhad, Tabriz, Tehran, and Qom—have hit residential buildings, airports, and sites described as commercial warehouses (Iran International). This has led to speculation amongst some Iranians that Israel is behind the incidents and may have assassinated the aforementioned members of the clerical establishment. This isn’t a surprise. As a report from Iran International explains, “Years of contradictory official accounts, botched cover-ups, and evasive press conferences have hollowed out public trust. Disbelief is automatic.”
Of course, many Iranians resorted to humor on social media. One Iranian joked on X:
“Call the Tehran gas company right now and someone picks up saying, ‘Shalom, how can I help you?’” (Iran International)
Plenty of memes were also shared, including this one:
Meanwhile, the Iranian communications ministry confirmed deliberate GPS jamming to misdirect Israeli drones or guided missiles (Iran International).
۶/6 Soccer referee receives medal from Trump, raises ire of Tehran
۷/7 Street renamed after decades-long dispute with Egypt
The Tehran Municipality officially changed the name of Khalid Al-Islambouli Street—Anwar Sadat’s assassin—to Hassan Nasrallah Street, after the assassinated Hezbollah leader.
The street name has been a major sticking point and a key reason there have been no diplomatic ties between Egypt and Iran since the 1979 revolution. The news suggests that diplomatic relations may be around the corner.
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human Rights
۰ Political prisoner transferred from prison to unknown location (IranWire)
۰ Political prisoners disrupt filming at Tehran prison during officials’ visit (IranWire)
۰ Three Iranian Arab political prisoners contact families after 17 days in solitary (IranWire)
۰ Bijan Kazemi remains detained without charges after more than 170 Days (HRANA)
۰ Talk show creator arrested after court hearing, whereabouts unknown (IranWire)
۰ Political death sentences surge in brutal crackdown on minorities (CHRI)
۰ Iranian film wins international prize despite persecution (IranWire)
۰ Family of French teen detained in Iran says he’s innocent, demands proof of life (AFP)
Domestic Issues
۰ Judiciary chief orders expedited trials for Israel-related cases (IranWire)
۰ In shadow of Israeli assault, ‘neo-nationalism’ surges in Iran (Amwaj.media)
۰ When seeking divorce means death: How Iran’s laws leave women trapped in fatal marriages (IranWire)
۰ Tehran cancels water bills after war disrupts meter reading (IranWire)
Foreign Policy + Security
۰ US lets staff return to Iraq weeks after Iran strike (AFP)
۰ Regime change is underway, but not in Trump’s favor—former US diplomat (Newsweek)
۰ Israel and Iran usher in new era of psychological warfare (New York Times)
۰ ‘Iran and Israel don't understand each other's narrative. the war can restart soon…’ (IranWire)
۰ Negev teacher charged with spying on airbase for Iran (Times of Israel)
۰ Through trial and error, Iran found gaps in Israel’s storied air defenses (Wall Street Journal)
۰ Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe's husband advises family of Brits held in Iran after fresh prison horror (Mirror)
۰ Trump’s Patriot sales to Ukraine underscore Iran's proliferation threat (Al-Monitor)
۰ Araghchi doubles down on China, Russia ties at Shanghai meeting (Al-Monitor)
۰ Silence is complicity on Iran, Argentina’s envoy says at AMIA bombing memorial (JNS)
Iran Deal + Sanctions
۰ Iran sees chance for nuclear deal with US even after attacks (Washington Post)
۰ Why Iran is embracing nuclear ambiguity after war with Israel (Al-Monitor)
۰ Council sanctions eight individuals and one entity over serious human rights violations and transnational repression (europa.eu)
۰ ICE Los Angeles special agents arrest Iranian national for violation of US sanctions (ice.gov)
Diaspora
۰ Judge approves release of Iranian arrested in Louisiana after US bombed Iran (New York Times)