Talks show promise, power outages—and more
The Iranist for the week of May 16, 2025
THE هفت/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:
۱/1 GETTING TO YES: COMMENTS SUGGEST DEAL NEAR
WHAT HAPPENED AT LATEST TALKS? On May 11, the United States and Iran held their fourth round of talks in Muscat, Oman, about the country’s controversial nuclear program. The US side was led by Special Envoy for the Middle East (and Russia issues) Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi led the Iranian side.
The discussions lasted more than three hours. The Iranian foreign ministry described the talks as “difficult but useful” in better understanding the US position, while a senior US official said, “Agreement was reached to move forward with the talks to continue working through technical elements.” (Wall Street Journal) The official also described the talks as “again both direct and indirect.” (CNN)
The negotiations are reportedly to resume in a week or so, though the date and location are unclear.
Two days prior to the talks, on May 9, Witkoff sat down with Breitbart News and said:
“An enrichment program can never exist in the state of Iran ever again. That’s our red line. No enrichment. That means dismantlement, it means no weaponization, and it means that Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan—those are their three enrichment facilities—have to be dismantled.”
On May 10, on the eve of the nuclear negotiations, Araghchi visited Saudi Arabia and Qatar to discuss regional security and bilateral ties (Al-Monitor). While in Doha, the Iranian foreign minister said:
“If the goal of the negotiations is to deprive Iran of its nuclear rights, I state clearly that Iran will not back down from any of its rights.” (Reuters)
The Iranian foreign minister also noted that Tehran had received “contradictory messages” from the US, as “different individuals express different views.” (CNN)
Iran has repeatedly said that it refuses to stop enrichment.
TRUMP VISITS REGION President Donald Trump spoke at the US-Saudi investment forum in Riyadh, where he praised leaders in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates and described Iran as the “biggest and most destructive force” in the region. Trump’s lengthy speech is noteworthy because it called on Tehran to stop sponsoring terrorism and proxies, and that the country can never have a nuclear weapon. However, here’s what stood out to many Iranians and received some praise on social media (Iran International):
“While you have been constructing the world’s tallest skyscrapers in Jeddah and Dubai, Tehran’s 1979 landmarks are collapsing into rubble and they had it going for a little while under a much different system but those buildings are largely falling apart…
Iran’s decades of neglect and mismanagement have left the country plagued by rolling blackouts lasting for hours a day... While your skill has turned dry deserts into fertile farmland, Iran’s leaders have managed to turn green farmland into dry deserts as their corrupt water mafia... causes droughts and empty river beds. They get rich, but they don’t let the people have any of it.
And there’s the key difference at the root of it all: While the Arab states are focused on becoming pillars of regional stability and world commerce, Iran’s leaders have focused on stealing their people’s wealth to fund terror and bloodshed abroad. The most tragic of all, they have dragged down an entire region with them.” (Times of Israel)
Trump also reiterated he was open to making a deal with Tehran:
“But if Iran’s leadership rejects this olive branch and continues to attack their neighbors, then we will have no choice but to inflict massive maximum pressure, drive Iranian oil exports to zero, like I did before… And take all action required to stop the regime from ever having a nuclear weapon. Iran will never have a nuclear weapon…”(Times of Israel)
On May 14, Araghchi called the US president’s comments “deceitful,” noting, “The Iranian nation pursues the same aspirations toward progress and prosperity as other regional countries. It is the US with its sanctions and threats which has blocked Iran's path to progress.” (Reuters) Similarly, President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Tehran “will not bow to any bully.” (Reuters)
DETAILS EMERGE OF POSSIBLE DEAL On May 13, Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi said, “For a limited period of time, we can accept a series of restrictions on the level and volume of enrichment. We have not yet gone into details about the level and volume of enrichment.” (Times of Israel)
On May 14, top advisor to the supreme leader, Ali Shamkhani, said that Tehran is ready to sign a nuclear deal if conditions are met. He added, “If the Americans remove the Bibi [Netanyahu] effect, they can easily sign the deal.”
Shamkhani echoed what Tehran envisions for a new deal:
“Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium which can be weaponized, agree to enrich uranium only to the lower levels needed for civilian use, and allow international inspectors to supervise the process, in exchange for the immediate lifting of all economic sanctions on Iran.” (NBC News)
If this sounds familiar, it’s because that’s what was in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that the Trump administration pulled out of in 2018.
Speaking about the US president, Shamkhani added, “He talks about the olive branch, which we have not seen. It’s all barbed wire.” (NBC News)
On May 15, Axios reported that US Special Envoy Witkoff gave the Iranian negotiating team a proposal during the fourth round of negotiations in Oman last week. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly took the proposal back to Tehran for consultations.
According to the report, during the first round of negotiations, Araghchi handed a document with Iranian proposals, but Witkoff allegedly said, “It was too soon for that, and he wanted to build rapport first.” During the third round, Araghchi gave an updated document, which the US technical team then studied and asked questions and for clarification.
Meanwhile, Amwaj.media alleges that Iranian negotiators floated the idea of hosting a regional uranium enrichment consortium during the fourth round of talks. However, the idea isn’t a new one.
The Guardian offered more details of what the deal allegedly may look like:
“Araghchi has been urged by mediators to accept zero uranium enrichment for up to three years to build trust. This period would end with Iran reverting to enriching at 3.75 percent purity… In the meantime, Russia could provide Iran with uranium for its civil nuclear program.”
The JCPOA allowed enrichment of 3.67 percent.
On May 15, while in Qatar, President Trump said:
“Iran has sort of agreed to the terms: They’re not going to make, I call it, in a friendly way, nuclear dust… They can’t have a nuclear weapon. That’s the only thing. It’s very simple. It’s not like I have to give you 30 pages worth of details. It is only one sentence. They can’t have a nuclear weapon.” (AP)
It’s worth noting that the JCPOA was 150 pages.
Hours after the US president’s comments, Araghchi said:
“We have said repeatedly that defending Iran’s nuclear rights—including enrichment—is a fundamental principle. This is not something we concede, either in public discourse or in negotiations. It is a right that belongs to the Iranian people, and no one can take it away.” (AP)
Meanwhile, on May 16 (today) the E3—Britain, France, and Germany—met their Iranian counterparts in Istanbul, Turkey to discuss “the latest state of play.” (RFE/RL) It was be their first meeting in two months. On May 12, Araghchi warned that utilizing snapback would have irreversible consequences (Reuters).
On May 16, Trump confirmed that the Iranians recieved a proposal (Axios). The US president added, “They know they have to move quickly or something bad is gonna happen.”
HOW WITKOFF THINKS The Atlantic published a fascinating profile of US Special Envoy Witkoff. On Iran, he said that it would make historic concessions because “They’re at that crisis point. And that’s when people make decisions.” However, as the journalist noted, “His own lessons from real estate suggest that Washington will have to make sacrifices, too.”
What stood out from the profile was Witkoff’s view of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Russian President Vladimir Putin:
Witkoff sees them “not as cruelly Machiavellian authoritarians captured by deeply felt and deeply antagonistic ideologies, but as clever negotiators, like so many real-estate lawyers he once faced in business, looking for the best possible deal.” (The Atlantic)
۲/2 Iran prioritizes power supply to industries amid public discontent
To mitigate the problem, government office hours have been shortened to 6 AM–1 PM, and Thursdays have been declared off in Tehran and several provinces “until further notice.” (IranWire)
۳/3 Expediency Council conditionally approved the Palermo Convention
۴/4 Trump apparently no longer renaming Persian Gulf
On May 13, Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari (D-AZ) introduced the Persian Gulf Act—legislation that “prohibits any federal funds from being used to rename the body of water and bars government documents from referring to the Persian Gulf by anything except that name.” (ansari.house.gov)
۵/5 Detained Iranian student chooses to self-deport despite initial charge withdrawal
۶/6 Political prisoner Fatemeh Sepehri transferred from prison to hospital
۷/7 Iran reportedly to send Russia launchers for short-range missiles
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human Rights
۰ Iran executes 20-year-old for crime committed at age 16 (IranWire)
۰ Woman among seven people executed on Monday (IranWire)
۰ Boxer begins prison term (IranWire)
۰ Tour guide sentenced to electronic monitoring for ‘hijab violations’ (IranWire)
۰ Husband kills wife in Northern Iran park shooting (IranWire)
۰ Varisheh Moradi denied medical care despite serious health issues (IranWire)
۰ CHRI reveals systematic persecution of human rights lawyers (CHRI)
Domestic Issues
۰ Death sentence confirmed for Tehran University Student’s Killer (IranWire)
۰ Parliament to sue former MP over bribery revelation (IranWire)
۰ Police kill two Baluch men in southeastern Saravan (IranWire)
۰ Dust storm triggers orange alert across 13 Iranian provinces (Iran Front Page)
۰ Security forces raid Baluch community in southern Iran (IranWire)
۰ Kidney transplant drug shortage creates crisis for patients (IranWire)
۰ Iran faces surgeon shortage as medical students avoid general surgery (IranWire)
۰ Iran issues first Caspian Sea drilling order in three decades (Iran International)
۰ Almost 140 earthquakes shake Iran in a week (Tehran Times)
Foreign Policy + Security
۰ Iran using criminal gangs for hit jobs abroad, court papers show (BBC)
۰ Putin has invitation to visit Iran, but dates have yet to be set, Kremlin says (Reuters)
۰ Russia’s ties with China, Iran mean conflicts won’t remain local (RFE/RL)
۰ Diplomacy in Muscat: How Oman created room for Iran-US talks (IranWire)
۰ Indian TV personality’s slur against Araghchi angers Iran (Iran International)
Iran Deal + Sanctions
۰ Political prisoners urge Trump to consider Iranian people in talks (IranWire)
۰ Enrichment to 93% is Iran’s right under NPT, lawmakers tell IAEA (Iran International)
۰ US issues sanctions to hit Iranian efforts to build ballistic missiles (Reuters)
۰ US imposes sanctions on companies it says sent Iranian oil to China (Reuters)
Diaspora
۰ Iran’s last queen: ‘I still hope the ayatollahs will fall and the people will be free’ (The Times)
۰ Iran’s exiled crown prince reveals Biden betrayal—and why Trump’s ‘pressure’ is best chance of regime change (New York Post)