Still waiting on a response, Pezeshkian's cabinet debacle—and more
The Iranist for the week of August 16, 2024
۱/1 Pezeshkian cabinet picks marred with controversy
On August 11, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian presented his cabinet to parliament for a vote of confidence. However, his list of nineteen nominees ran contrary to his promise of a “national unity” government that would be more inclusive of ethnic and religious minorities, women, and youth. The average age is sixty, with only two nominees under fifty, and includes just one woman: Farzaneh Sadegh who is nominated for the role of roads and urban development minister.
Reacting to the news, Mohammad Javad Rouh, a columnist for Ham Mihan newspaper, wrote:
“It’s like a bucket of cold water has been splashed on their heads; they had big expectations, but the result has been minimal.” (New York Times)
On that same day, Pezeshkian’s pick for vice president for strategic affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, resigned.
In a post on his Instagram account, the former foreign minister wrote:
“I am not satisfied with the outcome of my work, and I’m ashamed that I could not adequately achieve what I had promised about representation of women, youth, and ethnicities, and the expert opinion of the committees.”
Zarif reportedly may have faced pressure due to a 2021 law barring officials with ties to the West as his children were born in the United States (they obtained citizenship through birth and not naturalization). On August 12, he wrote in a post on X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram several reasons for his resignation, including pressure due to his children having US citizenship, noting that they live in Iran and have no US assets. Zarif added, “My message… is not a sign of regret or disappointment with dear Dr. Pezeshkian or opposition to realism; rather it means doubting my usefulness as a vice president for strategic affairs.”
Some have argued that Zarif’s departure means Pezeshkian will lose the support of the reformist camp. According to Amwaj.media:
“Unlike his resignation in 2019, Zarif is now seemingly intent on following through regardless of whether his resignation is accepted. This is problematic for Pezeshkian as he requires the backing of Reformists and moderates to succeed, particularly given that most of his decisions will be challenged by conservatives and hardliners.”
If that wasn’t enough controversy for Pezeshkian, his new Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said in televised remarks on that very day:
“Psychologically, our society is not ready for leadership and guidance of women. This is the reality.”
Parliament will begin the vetting process on August 17.
Here are some of the names that stand out for the cabinet list:
Foreign Minister: Abbas Araghchi, deputy foreign minister during Hassan Rouhani presidency and former chief nuclear negotiator
Defense Minister: Aziz Nasirzadeh, currently deputy chief of the Armed Forces General Staff
Intelligence Minister: Esmail Khatib, maintaining same role since Ebrahim Raisi presidency, sanctioned by the US (known for his brutal crackdown on Women, Life, Freedom uprising)*
Interior Minister: Eskandar Momeni, IRGC commander and former deputy chief of the Law Enforcement Forces*
Justice Minister: Amin-Hossein Rahimi, maintaining same role since Ebrahim Raisi presidency
Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister: Abbas Salehi, same role during Hassan Rouhani presidency
Economic Affairs and Finance Minister: Abdolnaser Hemmati, former head of Iran’s Central Bank and a 2021 presidential candidate
*Khatib and Momeni are considered the most controversial of the picks.
۲/2 Another #MahsaAmini: Woman shot and now in coma
Sources say Arezou Badri’s family has been summoned by intelligence and security agencies, urged to withdraw their complaint, and under pressure to stay silent and deliver a forced confession on camera regarding her situation (Iran International).
۳/3 Still waiting to see what Iran does re Iran
Earlier this month, Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh, 62, was assassinated alongside his bodyguard in Tehran while in the country to attend Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration. Haniyeh, who played a central role in hostage and ceasefire negotiations, was on Israel’s hitlist over the October 7, 2023 attack that sparked the now almost eleven-month-old Gaza war.
Iran and Hamas have blamed Israel for the assassination, but Israel has neither claimed nor denied responsibility. US officials have also made this assessment. In his public statement about Haniyeh’s assassination, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, “We see avenging his blood our duty” and that Israel had set the stage for receiving “a severe punishment.”
It took twelve days for Iran to respond to Israel in April, giving it enough time to send messages about its intentions and for preparation. With so many Western and regional stakeholders involved, the longer this drags on, the better it is for all parties, and the less likely it will lead to war.
WHAT’S THE LATEST? On August 11, the United States said it was sending the USS Georgia-guided missile submarine and speeding the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, which is equipped with F-35C fighter jets, to the region (NBC News).
According to a readout of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s call with his Israeli counterpart:
Austin “reiterated the United States’ commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of US military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions.” (Defense.gov)
On August 12, White House spokesperson John Kirby said:
“The Israelis think there is an increasing probability that Iran and its proxies will attack in the coming days. We share this concern and therefore we are coordinating with Israel and other partners in the region… Something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies... That is a US assessment as well as an Israel assessment.” (Axios/Reuters)
On that same day, US President Joe Biden spoke to his counterparts in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom to discuss the situation in the Middle East and efforts to de-escalate tensions. In a joint statement, the E3—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—said that Iran and its proxies would “bear responsibility for actions that jeopardize the opportunity for peace and stability” and called for restraint (Reuters).
On August 13, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani responded to the statement, saying that “Such demands lack political logic, are entirely contrary to the principles and rules of international law, and represent an excessive request,” adding that it also “constitutes public and practical support” for Israel (The Guardian).
Meanwhile, the Washington Post reported:
“Jordan and Saudi Arabia have declared they do not want their airspace transformed into a battle zone. Egypt has said it would not ‘take part in a military axis that would participate in repelling’ an Iranian attack.”
WHAT’S GOING ON IN IRAN? On August 11, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced military drills in western Kermanshah province near the border with Iraq to “enhance combat readiness and vigilance” until August 13, raising concerns Iran would retaliate (Reuters).
On August 13, three anonymous Iranian officials told Reuters that a ceasefire deal would stop Tehran from retaliating against Israel. Two-day ceasefire and hostage release negotiations began in Doha, Qatar on August 15. Two diplomatic sources claim that Qatar’s prime minister called Tehran, asking them to refrain from attacking Israel in order to not scuttle the negotiations process (Washington Post).
Sources told the Washington Post:
“…in private meetings with the leaders of its armed proxies… Iran has called for caution—seeking to balance any show of force with the desire to avoid an all-out war in the region.”
Separately, officials have said:
“…the assault this time could be more sudden, larger in scale and longer—possibly lasting several days instead of several hours. It could also be a coordinated barrage from multiple directions, involving Iranian proxies in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.” (Washington Post)
Meanwhile, Aliasghar Shafieian, campaign media adviser to newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian claims Tehran’s retaliation would unlikely be a repeat of April. Haniyeh’s assassination “was an intelligence-based mission. Iran’s response will be of a similar nature and at a similar level,” adding Tehran will respond after it takes time for “contemplation and patience.” (Washington Post)
Interestingly, an anonymous Pezeshkian aide told the Telegraph that the new president has asked the IRGC not to attack Israel directly but “has suggested targeting somewhere related to Israel in the Republic of Azerbaijan or [Iraqi] Kurdistan and let these countries know before that and get done with the whole drama.” The hope is that it will be a descalatory measure compared to a direct attack.
WHAT ABOUT IRANIANS? Despite everything, Iranians and Israelis are relying on dark humor during this tense time (Iran International).
Meanwhile, Iran is using the potential retaliation as a cover for targeting scores of activists, protesters, and political prisoners, with arrests and executions skyrocketing (CHRI).
۴/4 Rapper Toomaj Salehi acquitted of serious charges
۵/5 Elon Musk interviewed Donald Trump on X, talked Iran
The Republican presidential nominee reportedly said:
“All this stuff that you’re seeing now, all the horror that you look at Israel, they’re all waiting for an attack from Iran. Iran would not be attacking. Believe me. You know, when I was there and I say it with respect, because I think we would have been good with Iran.
I don’t want to do anything bad to Iran. They knew not to mess around. Iran was broke because I told China, if you buy from Iran oil, it’s all about the oil. That’s where the money is.
But if you buy oil from Iran, you’re not going to do any business with the United States. And I meant it. And they said, we’ll pass. They didn’t buy oil. Other countries likewise. You want to buy? You’re not doing business with the United States. And they were at a point where they were.
They had no money for Hamas. They had no money for Hezbollah. They had no money for any of these instruments of terror. And it was amazing.” (The Singju Post)
۶/6 Trump’s presidential campaign blames Iran for hacking
It’s worth noting that:
“Trump’s campaign didn’t provide specific evidence showing Iran was behind the hack. But it pointed to a Microsoft report released Friday that detailed an Iranian attempt to infiltrate a presidential campaign in June.” (AP)
۷/7 Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi violently beaten in prison
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Death penalties continue to rise executes six more prisoners (IranWire)
۰ UN human rights chief urges immediate halt to executions after alarming surge (CHRI)
۰ Five women’s rights activists sentenced to 20 years in prison (Radio Farda)
۰ Ruthless retaliation: Human rights lawyer summoned to prison amid heart problems (CHRI)
۰ Isfahan: Indictment issued for ten Baha’i women (HRANA)
Domestic issues
۰ Iran offers bounties to stop crypto mining amid severe power shortage (Iran International)
Foreign policy + security
۰ US offers $10m reward for information on Iranian hackers (Iran International)
۰ Why does Iran keep sending amateurs to conduct assassinations in the US? (NBC News)
۰ Iranian brothers charged in alleged smuggling operation that led to deaths of 2 Navy SEALs (AP)
۰ US indicts three over alleged support for Iran’s weapons program, DOJ says (Reuters)
۰ Iranian military adviser dies from airstrike injuries in Syria (IranWire)
۰ Iran showcases arms capabilities in Moscow amid missile support denials (Iran International)
۰ Exclusive: Iran to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia soon, intel sources say (Reuters)
۰ US warns Tehran again against sending ballistic missiles to Russia (RFE/RL)
۰ Iran and Russia see Africa as a land of opportunity (RFE/RL)
۰ Iran-Belarus discuss international threats in high-ranking military meeting (Tehran Times)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ US eyes Iranian oil exports as threat of Israel attack grows (Politico)
۰ Iran is shipping oil to Oman and Bangladesh in new push (Iran International)
۰ Iran planning to resume testing nuclear bomb detonators (Iran International)
Economy
۰ Iranians turn to gold and foreign currencies to preserve assets (Iran International)
Diaspora
۰ Noted Iranian music promoter killed in Los Angeles (IranWire)