Snapback triggered, systemic executions—and more
The Iranist for the week of August 29, 2025
THE هفت/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:
۱/1 Snapback triggered—now what?
On August 26, the E3—Britain, France, and Germany—made a last-ditch diplomatic effort with Tehran in Geneva (AP). The nuclear talks ended with no results, as the Iranians reportedly hadn’t “put tangible, detailed deliverables on the table” and ruled out extending their August 28 deadline to snapback sanctions (Axios).
UNDERSTANDING SNAPBACK On August 28, as expected, the E3 sent a letter to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to trigger the “snapback” mechanism, re-imposing sanctions on Iran.
The notification is part of the process laid out in Resolution 2231 and does not immediately reimpose sanctions. Instead, it triggers a 30-day countdown before the automatic reestablishment of multilateral sanctions—including asset freezes, a conventional arms embargo, restrictions on ballistic missile activities, and travel bans. This “snapback” mechanism, which revives six previously suspended UNSC resolutions, is set to expire on October 18 and requires thirty days to take effect. Crucially, snapback cannot be vetoed by permanent members of the Security Council—a provision originally proposed by Russia. The E3 pushed for the August 28 notification date out of concern that Moscow, set to assume the UNSC presidency on October 1, might complicate procedures or alter the agenda.
In their joint statement, the E3 noted that “Iran’s non-compliance with the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)] is clear and deliberate, and sites of major proliferation concern in Iran are outside of [International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)] monitoring.”
The trio noted that they were still open to negotiations that could stop the process for up to six months if Tehran engaged in talks with the United States, addressed concerns about its unaccounted 400 kg of enriched uranium (moved before the war), and restored access for IAEA inspectors—the same list the E3 had offered before, but was rejected by Iran (Reuters). Similar comments were made by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said, “the United States remains available for direct engagement with Iran—in furtherance of a peaceful, enduring resolution to the Iran nuclear issue.” (state.gov)
Not surprisingly, China and Russia, two parties to the JCPOA and allies of Tehran, condemned the move (Al Jazeera). Reports indicate that Russia is willing to support a draft resolution to extend UNSC Resolution 2231 (The Guardian/Amwaj.media). China is said to join as a co-sponsor of the draft resolution.
HOW WILL IRAN RESPOND? On August 27, Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated that future cooperation with the IAEA would likely come to an end should the E3 trigger the snapback sanctions (RFE/RL).
On August 28, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the move illegal and said that Tehran “will respond appropriately to this illegal and unjustified action by the three European countries, in order to protect and guarantee its national rights and interests,” adding it was an “escalation” that would undermine the “ongoing process of engagement” with the UN nuclear watchdog (New York Times). Ironically, Tehran claims the E3 doesn’t have the right to reimpose sanctions as Europe didn’t help the country circumvent sanctions after the US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed unilateral sanctions.
On the same day, a bill with retaliatory measures was introduced in parliament (Tasnim News Agency/Persian). The bill reportedly includes withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and Additional Protocol (a safeguards agreement that provides additional tools for verification), ending all forms of talks with the United States and E3, and suspending all monitoring cooperation with the IAEA. This move isn’t a surprise given that Iran has repeatedly threatened to leave the NPT.
The editor of hardline daily Kayhan, the mouthpiece of the Supreme Leader, wrote that Tehran’s strategy “should not be negotiation and retreat, but only the language of threats that forces the other side to retreat.” (IranWire)
On August 29, Germany told its citizens to leave Iran due to fears of retaliatory actions by Tehran (Reuters). Presumably, Berlin was referring to concerns of hostage-taking.
On the same day, Araghchi wrote the following on X:
“Acting on behalf of Israel and the U.S., the E3 have decided to maliciously pursue pressure on the Iranian people. This folly—which Iran has sternly warned against—is immoral, unjustified, and unlawful… the E3’s decision will have significant adverse impacts on diplomacy. It will severely undermine the ongoing dialogue between Iran and the IAEA. It will also compel an appropriate response.”
Meanwhile, since mid-June, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has been under special police protection in Austria following intelligence on a threat coming from Iran-linked individuals (Wall Street Journal/AP). The move followed incendiary remarks during the 12-day war: Ali Larijani, the newly appointed secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, wrote on X: “When the war ends, we are going to deal with Grossi.” Around the same time, Hardline daily Kayhan not only labeled the director of the UN nuclear watchdog an Israeli spy but also called for him to be detained and executed.
WHO ARE THESE INSPECTORS THEN? On August 27, IAEA inspectors returned to Iran to visit the Bushehr nuclear reactor—a commercial nuclear power plant that wasn’t targeted during the 12-day war—to watch a fuel replacement (Al-Monitor). Inspectors left the country in July after Tehran halted cooperation due to the 12-day war. A parliamentary law blocked Tehran from cooperating with the IAEA until the nuclear watchdog offered security guarantees following the war. Grossi said negotiations were underway to return inspectors to the three key nuclear sites—Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz—that were bombed during the war. However, much of the discussion focused on whether the facilities were accessible, to which he told the Iranians, “Let us be the judge.” (Washington Post)
Tehran regards the IAEA with deep suspicion, accusing the nuclear watchdog of aiding Israeli attacks on Iran by sharing information and failing to condemn the war (The Guardian).
Interestingly, Mohammad Sadr, a member of the Expediency Discernment Council, leveled similar accusations against Tehran’s close ally, Russia (Al Arabiya). He claimed Moscow had provided Israel with information on Iran’s defense systems and criticized the strategic treaty between the two countries. His remarks prompted prosecutors to file charges against him. At the same time, Mohammad Hossein Ranjbaran, a media adviser to the foreign minister who appeared alongside Sadr in the interview, publicly resigned on August 27 (IranWire).
HOW WILL IT IMPACT IRANIANS? As the Wall Street Journal writes:
“The reimposition of international sanctions is likely to have only a modest direct effect on Iran’s already beleaguered economy, potentially weakening the currency and propelling inflation. China is unlikely to stop buying Iranian oil, providing vital revenue for the Iranian state.”
Ordinary Iranians are primarily focused on the rial-to-dollar conversion rate, watching with dismay as it continues to surpass 1 million to the US dollar (Iran International).
۲/2 UN says at least 841 ‘systemically’ executed this year
Meanwhile, authorities have returned some 600 prisoners to two refurbished wards of Evin, despite lacking many basic services, as much of the prison Israel bombed in June is still in ruins (New York Times). The move surprised many, including the prisoners themselves.
۳/3 Australia servers ties with Iran over antisemitic attacks
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Australia’s actions—which include designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization—were an attempt to appease Israel (The Guardian). The Iranian ambassador to Australia Ahmad Sadeghi was seen departing Canberra on August 28 (AP).
۴/4 State Department official delaying the funding of VPNs
Thirty million Iranians reportedly rely on State Department-funded VPNs to access the internet.
۵/5 DIA head fired over Iran attack assessment
۶/6 Tycoon out of prison to help with sanctions evasion
Sanctioned billionaire Babak Zanjani, who was once sentenced to death for money laundering and embezzlement, is also now part of a massive project for electric taxis in Iran (X).
۷/7 Physics Olympiad team world champions again
I’m sharing this to highlight the incredible potential of Iranian youth…
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human Rights
۰ Taxi driver sentenced to 8 years for Instagram story (IranWire)
۰ University lecturer sentenced to prison (IranWire)
۰ Security forces detain Baha’i photographer for over two months (IranWire)
۰ Border forces shoot Kurdish kolbar in western Iran (IranWire)
۰ Neda Fotoohi and Zohreh Sarv face fresh charges in prison (HRANA)
۰ Destruction of graves from 1980s state massacres must be condemned (CHRI)
۰ ‘I thought it was the end of my life’: Inside Israel’s attack on Iran’s Evin Prison (BBC)
۰ Psychiatrists call for end to public executions (IranWire)
Domestic Issues
۰ Iran on a powder keg (Al Hurra)
۰ Army collects wills from all personnel, plans ID tags (IranWire)
۰ Iran mulls lifting ban on women driving motorcycles (Al-Monitor)
۰ Wrestling champion Reza Sookhteh-Saraei passes away (Mehr News Agency)
Foreign Policy + Security
۰ Iran will stand up to US demands to be ‘obedient’, says Khamenei (Al Jazeera)
۰ Javad Zarif on Iran’s future (Foreign Policy)
۰ Iranian-American FAA contractor sentenced for acting as Tehran agent (Iran International)
۰ Iran claims to kill 6 Israel-linked militants in restive province (AFP)
۰ Security forces agents kills 13 militants in southeast Iran (AP)
۰ Iran has a long history of clandestine attacks abroad to further its ends (The Guardian)
۰ Nearly 8,000 Afghan migrants deported from Iran, Pakistan in one day (Amu)
۰ Figures claim 26 percent of recent Scot independence posts by Iran (UK Defense Journal)
Iran Deal + Sanctions
۰ China walks tightrope on Iran as E3 trigger snapback sanctions (Al-Monitor)
۰ Iran willing to reduce uranium enrichment to avoid British sanctions (Telegraph)