Retaliation expected, repression on the rise—and more
Retaliation expected, repression on the rise—and more
The Iranist for the week of August 8, 2024
۱/1 Waiting for a retaliation
Last week, Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh, 62, was assassinated alongside his bodyguard in Tehran while in the country to attend Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration. Haniyeh, who played a central role in hostage and ceasefire negotiations, was on Israel’s hitlist over the October 7, 2023 attack that sparked the now almost eleven-month-old Gaza war (Washington Post). The killing halted negotiations but also could push Iran and Israel into a direct confrontation if Tehran retaliates.
Just twelve hours prior to the assassination, Israel had killed Fuad Shukr, Lebanese Hezbollah’s most senior commander, along with five civilians in a drone strike in a Beirut suburb. The assassination was in retaliation for a July 27 attack that killed twelve children in the occupied Golan Heights. Milad Bidi, a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), was also killed in the Israeli air strike (RFE/RL).
WHO WAS BEHIND THE KILLING? Iran and Hamas have blamed Israel for the assassination, but Israel has neither claimed nor denied responsibility. US officials have also made this assessment.
In 2022, IRGC intelligence chief Hossein Taeb was in part sacked because he failed to thwart a series of sabotages and assassinations on Iranian soil by Israel. This latest event leaves questions about how it’ll impact Taeb’s successor, Mohammad Kazemi. Ironically, about a week before Haniyeh’s killing, outgoing Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib said “breaking up Mossad’s infiltration network” was the ministry’s biggest achievement under his tenure in the Ebrahim Raisi administration (X).
Ismail Haniyeh is technically the second top leader of a terrorist organization assassinated in Iran by Mossad. The first was al-Qaeda’s No. 2, Abu Muhammad al-Masri, in 2020, but that was not publicly acknowledged by the United States, Iran, or Israel.
On August 5, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem:
“We are prepared for any scenario—both offensively and defensively. The State of Israel is in a multi-front war against Iran’s axis of evil. We are striking every one of its arms with great force. I reiterate and tell our enemies: We will respond and we will exact a heavy price for any act of aggression against us, from whatever quarter.” (Times of Israel)
HOW DID IT HAPPEN? According to state media, the assassination took place around 2 am local time. Haniyeh reportedly was staying at a guesthouse run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in a large and heavily guarded compound in an upscale part of North Tehran (New York Times).
State media initially described an “airborne guided projectile” being used, but later it was described as a “rocket.” (X/CNN) However, the IRGC’s narrative is that the Hamas political chief was assassinated by “a short-range projectile with a warhead” that weighed about 15 pounds and was fired from outside the guesthouse and “caused a strong explosion.” (Washington Post) Hamas officials claim Haniyeh was killed by a rocket or missile, but are waiting for Tehran’s investigation to finish.
Yet, a different narrative has mostly been dominating headlines. According to five Middle Eastern officials, an “explosive device” was covertly smuggled into the guesthouse Haniyeh was staying two months before his visit and was detonated remotely (New York Times). The guesthouse is where Haniyeh frequented while visiting the Iranian capital.
The Telegraph reported that Haniyeh was initially supposed to be assassinated during his visit for President Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral in May. However, large crowds and the possibility of its failure stopped the plan from moving ahead. The report seemed to corroborate the New York Times’ reporting about an explosive device being utilized, though it says that three were placed in separate rooms.
However, some are skeptical of this narrative. A Le Figaro journalist posted on X the narrative of a French intelligence agent familiar with Iran and Israel:
“‘The scenario of an air strike seems more plausible because until the last moment, we can correct the trajectory of the strike,’ he explains. ‘The bomb is messed up, a little too sewn with white thread,’ he adds. According to him, since this targeted assassination we have witnessed ‘a glut of media’, with a profusion of details, intended to support the bomb thesis. ‘It is organized to put pressure on the other leaders of Hamas, with the following message: we will kill you all wherever you are.’”
Separately, IranWire spoke to a former Iranian intelligence officer who called the reports “illogical and impossible.” The individual noted that when a foreign leader visits, an Iranian security team and the guest’s security “thoroughly check” the residence they are staying at. The officer claims that Iranian sources are “playing” with Western journalists and foreign intelligence agencies by leaking false information.
On August 3, Iranian authorities reportedly arrested more than two dozen people, including those tied to the guesthouse (New York Times). According to two Iranian sources, intelligence agents put “all the guesthouse’s staff members under quarantine, arrested some, and confiscated all electronic devices, including personal phones,” while a different group “interrogated senior military and intelligence officials with roles in safeguarding the capital” and “placed a number of them under arrest until investigations are completed.”
HOW WILL IRAN RESPOND? Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has issued an order to attack Israel directly, according to three Iranian officials (New York Times). In his public statement about Haniyeh’s assassination, Khamenei said, “We see avenging his blood our duty” and that Israel had set the stage for receiving “a severe punishment.”
Anonymous sources told Iran International that President Pezeshkian, who took office a little over a week ago, reportedly “pleaded” with Khamenei not to attack Israel. According to the report, Pezeshkian “stressed that initiating a war with Israel would make economic recovery and bridging the already deep divide between the Islamic Republic and its citizens impossible, severely damaging Iran's international standing, which the country desperately needs to improve.”
A close aide to Pezeshkian told the Telegraph, “No unharmed brain can accept that this happened by accident, especially on Mr. Pezeshkian’s first day in office. He may have to go to war with Israel in his first few days in office and it’s all because of the IRGC.” The aide suggested that it was intentionally meant to hurt the new president and his push for diplomacy.
On July 31, the Iranian Mission to the United Nations posted on X, “The response to an assassination will indeed be special operations—harder and intended to instill deep regret in the perpetrator.”
Iran has given foreign ambassadors in Tehran a heads-up that it plans to respond to Israel (The Guardian). On August 7, Iran secured an emergency meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to press Arab neighbors to back its right to retaliate against Israel.
While it’s unclear how Tehran will respond, the New York Times reports:
“Iranian military commanders are considering another combination attack of drones and missiles on military targets in the vicinity of Tel Aviv and Haifa, but would make a point of avoiding strikes on civilian targets, the Iranian officials said. One option under consideration is a coordinated attack from Iran and other fronts where it has allied forces, including Yemen, Syria and Iraq, for maximum effect, they said.”
According to Axios, US officials expect the response to be the same April playbook “but potentially larger in scope—and it could also involve Hezbollah in Lebanon.” On August 6, columnist David Ignatius said that “Biden’s efforts may be paying off. Iran may be reconsidering a plan for major retaliation... Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, is still a wild card, officials said.” (Washington Post)
It took twelve days for Iran to respond to Israel in April, giving it enough time to send messages about its intentions and for preparation. With so many Western and regional stakeholders involved, the longer this drags on, the better it is for all parties, and the less likely it will lead to war.
WHAT IS THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY DOING? Many Western countries—including the United Kingdom, the United States, France, and Germany—have called their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately. Several airlines have also canceled their flights to and from Israel, Lebanon, and Iran.
On August 5, the US deployed military assets and additional forces to the region to help defend Israel and US forces in Iraq and Syria from possible attacks, similar to the lead-up to the April 13 retaliation (Politico). The State Department spokesperson said that the United States has been urging through various diplomatic channels for Iran not to escalate (Reuters).
On the same day, the Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu visited Iran to discuss ties between Moscow and Tehran (Reuters). Shoigu, a former defense minister and a key player in the country’s defense cooperation with Iran, met with President Pezeshkian, Brigadier General Mohammad Bagheri, the commander of the Iranian armed forces and who is leading the planning for strikes on Israel, and Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.
Shoigu reportedly passed along a message from Russian President Vladimir Putin to avoid civilian casualties in its response (The Guardian). According to the New York Times, “Iranian media reported that Iran has requested advanced air-defense systems from Russia as it prepares for a possible war with Israel. Two Iranian officials familiar with the war planning… said Russia has started delivering advanced radars and air-defense equipment.” Israeli news service Channel 14 reported that Moscow has allegedly transferred Iskander missile systems and Murmansk-BN electronic warfare systems to Tehran (Kyiv Post).
A day prior, on August 4, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi visited Tehran to meet his Iranian counterpart, acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani, and plead for an end to the escalation so the region could live in “peace, security, and stability.” (Reuters) It was the first visit by a Jordanian foreign minister in two decades. Amman is caught between a rock and a hard place after it defended its airspace against Iranian drones and missiles heading towards Israel. The country has a large Palestinian population, and protests have been held to end ties with Israel over the Gaza war. President Pezeshkian told Safadi the assassination was a “major mistake by the Zionist regime [Israel] that will not go unanswered.” (The Guardian) Safadi is reportedly concerned Tehran will attack Amman if it defends Israel from impending attacks.
۲/2 Protester Reza Rasaei executed after sham trial
The execution reportedly prompted protests in the women’s ward of Evin prison, leading to clashes between inmates and security forces (IranWire).
۳/3 Pakistani national with alleged Iran ties charged with seeking assassinations of Trump and other US officials
۴/4 Viral video of so-called morality police violently arresting two teens angers Iranians
One of the mothers of the teenagers told Ensaf News:
“The officers slammed my daughter’s head against a power box and, after forcibly placing her into the van, continued to beat her... I found my daughter with a bruised face, swollen lips, a discolored neck, torn clothes, and she could barely speak.” (Iran International)
۵/5 Wrestler Mohammad Hadi Saravi wins gold at Paris Olympics
Iran defector Kimia Alizadeh lost to her old friend and former teammate Nahid Kiyani Chandeh in a women’s taekwondo match (AP).
Mobina Nematzadeh won bronze in women’s taekwondo (IranWire)
۶/6 UN fact-finding mission claims “crimes against humanity” committed against minorities during Woman, Life, Freedom uprising
۷/7 Twenty-two executed at a single prison in one day
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Iran executes three prisoners on drug and murder charges (IranWire)
۰ Prisoner dies after being denied medical care (IranWire)
۰ Translator faces trial on propaganda and other charges (IranWire)
۰ Imprisoned Nobel Peace Laureate Narges Mohammadi denied urgent medical treatment (CHRI)
۰ Iranian Arab political prisoner with MS denied urgent treatment (IranWire)
۰ Police break neck of Afghan teen amid deportation crackdown (Iran International)
۰ Young Iranian woman arrested for singing in public (Iran International)
۰ Appeals court halves prison sentence of Grammy winner Hajipour (RFE/RL)
۰ Activist goes on hunger strike to protest new charges (Radio Farda)
۰ Eight political prisoners face risk of execution (IranWire)
۰ Bakhtiari family defiant after court assault (IranWire)
۰ Summons, arrests, and threats force journalists to switch careers (IranWire)
Domestic issues
۰ Pezeshkian criticized by media and activists over aide appointments (Iran International)
۰ President picks top economists amid pressure to revive economy (Iran International)
۰ Zarif returns to government service amid cheers, jeers in Iran (Amwaj.media)
Foreign policy + security
۰ Fact check: Trump, who approved multiple prisoner exchanges, falsely claims he gave up ‘nothing’ to get Americans back (CNN)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ Official: Iran smuggles ‘5 to 6 million liters’ of oil into Pakistan daily (VOA)