Potential presidential contenders, regime supporters attack protesters—and more

The Iranist for the week of May 30, 2024

May 30, 2024

۱/1 The presidential race begins

* “Reformists” or “Moderates” describe themselves as individuals who believe in the status quo and reforming the Islamic Republic, while “Principlists” or “Fundamentalists” are what Western media call “hardliners.”

Presidential elections will take place on Friday, June 28. Candidates can register from May 30 – June 3 (starting today) and are allowed to campaign from June 12 until the morning of June 27.

On May 26, Saeed Jalili, the Supreme Leader’s representative in the Supreme National Security Council and a former nuclear negotiator, announced he was running for president (Iran International). The hardliner has run in both the 2013 and 2021 presidential elections. On the same day, Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist member of parliament, announced he would run (Al-Monitor). The twelve-member vetting body, the Guardian Council, barred him from running in 2021.

Other potential contenders to think about are:

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, current speaker of parliament (ran in 2005, 2013)
Ali Larijani, former speaker of parliament (barred from running in 2021)
Mohammad Mokhber, interim president (assumed the role after Ebrahim Raisi’s death)
Alireza Zakani, Tehran’s mayor
Mohammad-Javad Azari Jahromi, former ICT minister under Hassan Rouhani (2017-2021)
Sadegh Mahsouli, former interior minister under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2008-2009)
Mehrdad Bazrpash, minister of roads and urban development
Parviz Fattah, head of Execution of Imam Khomeini's Order (EIKO) enterprise
Mohammad Javad Zarif, former foreign minister under Hassan Rouhani (2013-2021)

On May 30, Jalili and Mostafa Kavakebian, another reformist politician who is editor-in-chief of the Mardomsalari newspaper, signed up on the first registration day for the June 28 election (Iran International). Kavakebian was disqualified from running in the 2021 presidential election.

The 2021 presidential election and recent parliamentary elections both had the lowest turnouts in the Islamic Republic’s forty-five-year history.

۲/2 Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf re-elected as speaker of parliament

۳/3 Regime supporters threaten and attack protesters in London and Maryland

On May 22, anti-regime protesters gathered outside the Islamic Education Center in Maryland commemorating the deaths of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his entourage. One of the men attending the memorial made a cutthroat gesture with his hand multiple times at protesters, including at the president of the National Solidarity Group of Iran (NSGIran) Siamak Aram, which is widely interpreted as a death threat. That individual was identified as Ramezan Sultan Mohammadi, an employee at the Interests Section of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Washington, DC (X). Aram—whose grassroots organization leads anti-regime protests in Washington, including in front of the interests section—said that a Maryland judge issued a temporary order against Mohammadi, preventing him “from making any contact, threats, or approaching [his] place of residence and employment.” (X)

Video courtesy of NSGIran

Separately, on May 24, anti-regime protesters were attacked as they gathered outside a memorial service for Raisi and his entourage at the Dewan Al-Kafeel Community Center in London (Iran International). Pro-regime supporters beat several who were celebrating the deaths of the Iranian officials, including a woman who was repeatedly kicked as she lay helplessly on the ground screaming in Persian “Help” and “This is exactly what you did to Nika Shakarami,” referring to a 16-year-old protester who was sexually assaulted and killed by security forces during the Women, Life, Freedom uprising (X). Four protesters were injured, and one man was arrested “on suspicion of violent disorder.” (BBC) The Metropolitan Police published a statement on X (formerly Twitter) noting that “an investigation is under way.” (X)

On May 28, the Deputy Special Envoy for Iran Abram Paley wrote on X:

“Concerned to see reports of Iranian regime supporters threatening and attacking peaceful protesters worldwide. Freedoms of peaceful assembly and expression are essential human rights, and efforts to silence these voices are unacceptable.”

۵/5 IAEA rebuke in the works as uranium stockpile jumps

On May 27, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran had increased its stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium to 142.1 kilograms from 20.6 kilograms three months prior—the highest to date (AP). These figures are as of May 11 (the last quarterly IAEA report was published in February). Sixty percent is considered near weapons-grade levels of 90 percent. According to the Wall Street Journal, “US officials say that material could be converted into weapons-grade enriched uranium in a matter of days. It would then be enough to fuel three nuclear weapons.”

The 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, allowed Iran only to enrich 3.67 percent. The United States, under the Donald Trump administration, withdrew from the deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, prompting Tehran to violate the deal incrementally over time.

Numerous items stood out from the latest report, including:

“…Tehran has not reconsidered its September 2023 decision to bar nuclear inspectors from monitoring its nuclear program and added that it expects Iran ‘to do so in the context of the ongoing consultations between the [IAEA] agency and Iran’… The report also said there was no progress so far in reinstalling more monitoring equipment, including cameras, removed in June 2022. Since then, the only recorded data is that of IAEA cameras installed at a centrifuge workshop in the city of Isfahan in May 2023—although Iran has not provided the IAEA with access to this data.” (AP)

The Joe Biden administration reportedly told its European allies—Britain and France—not to rebuke Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors meeting in Vienna in early June. According to anonymous diplomats, “The US has pressed several other countries to abstain in a censure vote, saying that is what Washington will do.” (Wall Street Journal) The US has denied the push not to censure Tehran. On May 29, the E3—Britain, France, and Germany—circulated a draft resolution against Iran ahead of next week’s quarterly Board of Governors meeting (Reuters). The last time the thirty-five nation Board of Governors passed a resolution against Iran was eighteen months ago about uranium particles found at three undeclared sites.

WHO HAS THE NUCLEAR FILE IN TEHRAN? One of the big topics everyone is talking about this week is Ali Shamkhani, the former Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) secretary, and whether he’ll be managing the nuclear file (Amwaj.media).

۶/6 US boycotts United Nations tribute to President Ebrahim Raisi

۷/7 Mossad claims Iran-backed criminal networks behind attacks on Israeli embassies in Europe since October 7

OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:

Human rights

۰ UN Fact-Finding Mission: Raisi’s death should not overshadow Iran’s “crimes against humanity” (CHRI)

۰ Prominent activists urge UN General Assembly to cancel tribute to former president Raisi (CHRI)

۰ Political prisoner with health issues denied medical care in jail (IranWire)

۰ Iranian forces raid home, arrest two Baha'is (IranWire)

۰ Iran charges sister of slain protester for defying hijab rules (IranWire)

Domestic issues

۰ Calls, search parties, drones: 17 hours to find Iran’s president (New York Times)

۰ Why Some Iranians posted nude photos to celebrate Raisi’s death (Iran International)

۰ Professor and editor convicted for reporting on child’s death (IranWire)

۰ Iran plans 70 new prisons by 2026, allocates over $19 million (IranWire)

Foreign policy + security

۰ Iran says backing for Palestinian ‘resistance’ unaffected by Raisi’s death (Times of Israel)

۰ Iran says Saudi Crown Prince has accepted invitation to visit (Iran International)

۰ Border guards kill four Pakistanis in Baluchistan (IranWire)

Iran deal + sanctions

۰ Iran plans to raise oil output to 4 million barrels per day, Tasnim reports (Reuters)