Pezeshkian versus Jalili run-off—and more
The Iranist for the week of July 3, 2024
۱/1 Everything you need to know about the run-off
* “Reformists” or “Moderates” describe themselves as individuals who believe in the status quo and reforming the Islamic Republic, while “Principlists” or “Fundamentalists” are what Western media call “hardliners.”
WHAT HAPPENED IN THE FIRST ROUND? The first presidential election, which was neither free nor fair, took place on June 28. According to officials, 40 percent (24.5 million) out of the 61.5 million eligible voted; of those, 1.05 million were invalid ballots—making this presidential election the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic’s forty-five-year history.
On July 3, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the election “lower than expected” and noted that “several factors” played a role. He added, “We hope that people’s turnout for the second round will be important and a source of pride for the Islamic Republic.” (Reuters) Interestingly, since 1997, Khamenei has consistently delivered a message one day after each presidential election to thank the Iranian people, but this time, it took him five days (Telegram).
There’s a conspiracy theory that the numbers were actually lower and that authorities tripled them to show higher turnout (X). Regardless, 60 percent not voting signals the populace’s disillusionment with the clerical establishment.
Lower turnout occurred in at least a dozen provinces, including Kermanshah, Kurdistan, and Sistan and Baluchistan, all of which were epicenters of the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom uprising (Iran International). This outcome was not a surprise to me (read last week’s newsletter.) What surprised analysts, however, was that historically low turnouts mean a hardliner victory, but not in this case.
Since no presidential candidate secured a majority on June 28, a runoff between the top two candidates will be held on Friday, July 5, to determine Iran’s next president.
WHO IS RUNNING?
Saeed Jalili / hardliner / Supreme Leader’s representative in the Supreme National Security Council and former nuclear negotiator (ran in 2013, 2021), sanctioned by Canada – 38.6 percent (9.4 million votes)
Masoud Pezeshkian / reformist / member of parliament representing Tabriz and former health minister, surgeon – 42.5 percent (10.4 million votes)
Read more about the candidates
WILL IRANIANS BOYCOTT? During the first round, Iranians made it clear through their boycott that they don’t want an Islamic Republic, with even some deeply religious Iranians refusing to vote (Etemad Online/Persian).
Some Iranians who had boycotted the first round are considering voting in the second round for Pezeskhian—the “lesser evil”—out of fear of a Jalili presidency, which one Iranian outlet described as making Iran “politically like North Korea and culturally like the Taliban’s Afghanistan.” (Atlantic) Or, as IranWire pointed out, having to choose “between candidates like Pezeshkian or Jalili signifies opting for either an interactive foreign policy or one that may exacerbate tensions.” These Iranians think Pezeskhian could marginally improve the country’s situation. For the Iranians who are boycotting, the two candidates are “two halves of the same apple,” as one user described, because, in their view, the key decisionmaker is the Supreme Leader.
There have also been those who were silent during the first round and are now active in calling for a boycott of the runoff, such as activist collective 1500 Images (X). A new hashtag—others being رای_بی_رای# (“No way I’ll vote”) and سیرک_انتخابات# (“Election Circus”)—is criticizing the اقلیت_خائن# (“Treacherous Minority”). The hashtag is directed at those who intend to participate despite all the blood shed by the clerical establishment with many of the families of slain protesters from the 2022 uprisings and ones before it speaking out. The boycotters continue to reject the Islamic Republic but also likely on the notion that “a Jalili presidency is ultimately better for the opposition, because the regime will grow ever more isolated and thus more prone to being overthrown,” as writer Arash Azizi explains (Atlantic).
Mahsa Piraei, whose mother was shot dead by security forces during the 2022 uprising, wrote on X:
“Honorable people of Iran, we the petitioning families, never asked you to go to the streets and stand in front of bullets or put yourself in danger because we are not ready for another family to experience the pain that we suffered. But if you promised us that you are with us, now is the time! Don’t be deceived by the regime’s false propaganda and as you stood in front of the killers by saying no in the first round #Election_Show, be with us this time too! Let’s remember how many times we shouted, ‘Hardliners and reformists the game is over,’ it’s now time to put our slogan into practice!”
During this week’s debate, Pezeskhian brought up the low turnout, saying, “The pillar of society is its people. When 60 percent do not come to the polls, there is a problem, people have a problem with us.” (The Guardian)
Using Jalili as a scare tactic, Pezeshkian has repeatedly compared Iranians to the “selfless farmer” story from 1961 told to children and called on them to vote because “Iran’s future is in danger.” For those not familiar, the farmer strips his shirt off, ties it to a stick, and sets it ablaze to warn an oncoming train of boulders blocking the track. But as the Associated Press brilliantly concluded, “Those not taking part in the election believe the train has already crashed.”
WHAT DO THE POLLS SAY? It’s widely believed that Pezeshkian was allowed to run by the Guardian Council—a twelve-member vetting body in which six are appointed by the Supreme Leader directly—to stimulate a higher voter turnout to give the clerical establishment legitimacy, which it currently lacks domestically. Khamenei has always emphasized that the regime’s legitimacy stemmed from its popularity and always encourages citizens to vote to show that popular support.
It’s worth noting that in 2001, Khamenei said:
“It is disgraceful for a nation to have a 35 percent or 40 percent voter turnout, as happens in some of the nations that you see having presidential elections. It is obvious that their people do not trust their political system, that they do not care about it and that they have no hope.” (AP)
Some of the votes of the first-round hardline candidates are expected to go to Jalili. With Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf supporters, it’s more complicated, as only some would rather see Pezeshkian win over Jalili (Ghalibaf only had 13 percent of the votes or 3.4 million). However, on July 2, the head of Ghalibaf’s campaign headquarters, Sami Nazari Tarkarani, said he’d vote for the reformist candidate and has asked all provincial campaign headquarters and directors of national committees to as well (Amwaj.media). Meanwhile, Pezeskhian’s team has accused state media of being biased in favor of Jalili (IranWire).
According to Iran-based Dataak’s latest survey (which has deep state ties), 44.7 percent will partake in the runoff on July 5. The survey also said that Pezeshkian would win the election with 51.1 percent of the vote, while Jalili would receive 46.6 percent. (X)
DIASPORA REACTION On June 28, anti-regime members of the diaspora, including human rights activists, gathered at the Islamic Republic of Iran’s embassies (in DC, its interests section) in numerous western cities to protest the presidential election and, in some cases, shame voters partaking in the election.
Some harassed and intimidated the voters, while a woman in London pulled the hijab off two elderly women while saying she was the “child of the Reza Shah,” hinting she was a supporter of the hijab ban under the first shah of the Pahlavi dynasty. The user who posted the video of the viral incident called it a democratic act and denied being the person involved (LBC).
On July 1, UK Metropolitan Police said:
“There is no place for this behavior in London. We are in contact with one of the victims and an investigation is under way to establish the full circumstances and deal with any offences.” (X)
The social media user has reportedly since deleted her accounts.
The former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi condemned the acts of violence and harassment against voters (VOA Farsi). He noted that the Islamic Republic may be behind some of the acts to divide the opposition.
۲/2 During the election circus, crackdown on women and girls continue
۳/3 Iran’s UN mission threatens “obliterating war” if Israel launches Lebanon offensive
۴/4 Iranian kickboxer represents Refugee Olympic Team
۵/5 Russia says it is working on a “big treaty” with Iran
۶/6 Israel re-establishes working groups on Iran’s nuclear program
۷/7 Iran remains on Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) blacklist
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Execution of Two Afghan nationals for drug offenses in Shiraz (HRANA)
۰ Four inmates die under mysterious circumstances in Shiban prison (IranWire)
۰ Iran forcefully arrests Baluch singer (IranWire)
۰ Political prisoner Jamal Ameli denied medical care in Evin Prison (HRANA)
۰ Kurdish athlete Jasim Haseli detained by security forces (IranWire)
۰ Family denied visits as Mazaher Heydari protests with hunger strike (IranWire)
۰ Rapper Milad Jalili imprisoned for political rap music (IranWire)
۰ Government intensifies crackdown on dissident rappers (Iran International)
۰ Jailed Iranian-Swedish academic’s wife disappointed in Sweden’s govt (IranWire)
Domestic issues
۰ Disqualified from election, Larijani skips key council gatherings (IranWire)
Foreign policy + security
۰ How Iran defied the US to become an international power (WSJ)
۰ Lawsuit accuses Iran, Syria, and North Korea of providing support for Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel (AP)
۰ Grand ayatollah accuses Saudi Arabia of using Wahhabism to divide Iran (Iran International)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ US targets Iranian oil exports with latest sanctions (RFE/RL)
۰ Iran’s aviation survived 4 years of sanctions without incident: Official (PressTV)
Sports
۰ Paris 2024 Olympics: Farzaneh Fasihi – Iran’s record-breaking sprinter (Al Jazeera)