Nuclear weapons chatter, Cannes filmmaker sentenced to 8 years—and more
Nuclear weapons chatter, Cannes filmmaker sentenced to 8 years—and more
The Iranist for the week of May 10, 2024
۱/1 No progress in curbing Iran’s nuclear program—yet
On May 6, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) traveled to Iran to discuss the state of the country’s nuclear program (AP). Rafael Mariano Grossi met with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and noted on X (formerly Twitter) that he “proposed a set of concrete practical measures for the revitalization of the 4 March 2023 Joint Statement with aim of restoring process of confidence building and increasing transparency.”
Amirabdollahian told the IAEA chief that his trip was “taking place at a right time” given the “complicated and sensitive circumstances in the region.” (Al-Monitor) He called on Grossi to take “unbiased and professional” positions on Iran’s nuclear activities to help with “effective cooperation and restore security and stability to the region.”
On May 7, Grossi traveled to Isfahan province, the home of the country’s primary uranium enrichment facility (Al-Monitor). In Isfahan, the IAEA director general met with the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Mohammad Eslami, who noted that Tehran was working with the nuclear watchdog to remove “barriers” based on “political motivations,” referring to ambiguities from uranium particles detected at two undeclared nuclear sites uncovered by Israeli intelligence agency Mossad in 2019. Eslami noted, “We need to exercise caution to block Zionist moves aimed at complicating interactions between Iran and the IAEA.” Grossi reportedly also spoke at Iran’s first International Conference on Nuclear Science and Technology in Isfahan (AFP).
On the same day, Grossi returned to Vienna, where the IAEA is located. The director general told reporters, “The present state is completely unsatisfactory for me. We are almost at an impasse and this needs to be changed.”
Tehran currently enriches uranium at 60 percent purity—near weapons-grade levels of 90 percent. Grossi has already warned that Tehran has enough enriched uranium to make “several” nuclear bombs if it decides to build them. The 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, allowed Iran only to enrich 3.67 percent. The United States, under the Donald Trump administration, withdrew from the deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, prompting Tehran to violate the deal incrementally over time.
FLIRTING WITH BOMBS. On May 9, Kamal Kharrazi, the head of the Strategic Council for Foreign Relations and top advisor to the Supreme Leader, told Al Jazeera Mubasher television network:
“We have no decision to build a nuclear bomb but should Iran's existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine… If the Zionist regime dares to damage Iran’s nuclear facilities, our deterrence will be different.” (Reuters)
In recent months, various Iranian officials have entertained the idea of Tehran going all the way with its nuclear program. Read some of those examples in this piece by Khosro Kalbasi Isfahani.
۲/2 Secret document reveals 16-year-old protester was sexually assaulted and killed by security forces
۳/3 More dissidents at risk of execution
On May 6, an Iranian social media activist was sentenced by a revolutionary court in Esfahan to “corruption on earth,” which carries the death penalty (RFE/RL). Mahmoud Mehrabi, 36, was arrested in February 2023 during the Women, Life, Freedom uprising over his social media posts that were critical of the Islamic Republic. Judiciary-affiliated Mizan News Agency alleged that during the protests, Mehrabi posted on social media “instructions on how to use handmade weapons,” made “calls to destroy public property,” and also “incit[ed] people to riot.” (IranWire). However, according to his sister, Hajar Mehrabi, who lives in Austria, the activist called online for street protests and was accused of “spreading false news.” Hajar said, “The judge told him, ‘I don’t see regret in your eyes, so I have sentenced you to death.’”
Mehrabi’s other sister, Maryam Mehrabi, who lives in Iran, told Iran International that during the 2022 uprising, her brother “was the voice of the protesting people killed in the streets and political prisoners, and he stood up bravely with empty hands and spoke.” (Jerusalem Post)
On May 7, Mizan reported that Mehrabi could appeal his sentence in the Supreme Court (IranWire). It’s worth noting the revolutionary court in Esfahan is the same one that sentenced dissident rapper Toomaj Salehi to death.
On May 8, two Baluch men were executed on alleged drug-related charges without notifying their families (IranWire).
Meanwhile, a Kurdish political prisoner held in Ghezelhesar prison is reportedly at risk of imminent execution (IranWire). According to the Kurdistan Human Rights Network, Khosrow Besharat, who is sentenced to death, met with his family on May 5 after being moved to solitary confinement four days prior. Besharat was arrested in 2008 and handed the death penalty alongside seven others.
According to Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO), from April 16 to April 30, the Islamic Republic executed 63 individuals—that’s one person every five hours (iranhr.net). In 2023, Iran executed 853 individuals, the highest recorded since 2015 (Amnesty International).
۴/4 Rob Malley back in the spotlight
On May 6, top Republicans sent a letter to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken regarding the suspension of the former US special envoy for Iran’s “security clearance and the status of investigative efforts related to him.” (Washington Post) Since his suspension in April 2023, there has been no official explanation for why Rob Malley is under federal investigation.
In their letter, Senator Jim Risch (R-ID), the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Mike McCaul (R-TX) wrote:
“We understand that Mr. Malley’s security clearance was suspended because he allegedly transferred classified documents to his personal email account and downloaded these documents to his personal cell phone… It is believed that a hostile cyber actor was able to gain access to his email and/or phone and obtain the downloaded information.”
Read the full letter here.
Since Malley’s departure, his deputy, Abram Paley, has assumed his duties at the US State Department. Malley’s main role was reviving the nuclear deal and has also included working to secure the release of wrongfully detained Americans in Iran. He has been a controversial figure for many Iranians in the diaspora for not expanding the Iran file to include other issues like human rights and is seen as not being sufficiently adversarial towards the Islamic Republic.
The letter may offer some clues as to what may have happened but as Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin notes:
“The letter is a sign of the deep frustration on Capitol Hill about the lack of public information regarding the case… Meanwhile, Malley sits in limbo, unable either to clear his name or avail himself of legal remedies. In many cases, officials are able to contest allegations of mishandling of classified information and thereby avoid charges (as in the [Hillary] Clinton case). If Malley were formally charged with a crime, at least he would then be afforded due process to defend himself.”
۵/5 Canada’s House of Commons votes unanimously to designate IRGC as a terrorist organization
۶/6 Director with Cannes film debut sentenced to 8 years in prison
On May 9, an award-winning Iranian director was sentenced to eight years in prison and flogging for his statements, films, and documentaries, which the court found to be “examples of collusion with the intention of committing a crime against the security of the country.” (CNN) The court also sentenced Mohammad Rasoulof, 52, to a fine as well as confiscation of his property. Prior to Rasoulof’s sentencing—the harshest handed to a filmmaker—his production team was summoned, and his actors were interrogated and barred from leaving the country (Al-Monitor).
Rasoulof’s latest film, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, was set to premiere at the Cannes Film Festival next week—a first for the acclaimed director. Authorities are demanding that the film be pulled from Cannes (Al-Monitor).
The plot of The Seed of the Sacred Fig:
“The story centers on Iman, an investigating judge in the Revolutionary Court in Tehran, who grapples with mistrust and paranoia as nationwide political protests intensify and his gun mysteriously disappears. Suspecting the involvement of his wife Najmeh and his daughters Rezvan and Sana, he imposes drastic measures at home, causing tensions to rise. Step by step, social norms and the rules of family life become suspended.” (Screen Daily)
Rasoulof’s lawyer Babak Paknia wrote on X (formerly Twitter): “This judgment is issued due to Mr. Rasoulof signing statements in support of the Iranian people,” referring to a letter he co-signed along with other artists calling on security forces to “put your gun down” amid protests over a 2022 building collapse in Abadan that killed at least 29 (AP). Paknia said that the filmmaker’s tweets and other activities were found by Tehran’s revolutionary court to be instances of “acting against national security.”
This news comes as the Islamic Republic cracks down on dissenting athletes, celebrities, and musicians inside the country.
۷/7 Severe flooding impacts 21 provinces in Iran
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Doctor arrested for protesting execution of political prisoners (IranWire)
۰ Four inmates executed at Urmia prison for drug offenses (HRANA)
۰ Iran: Women and girls facing violent crackdown (Amnesty International)
۰ Iran remains second largest jailer of writers worldwide (Iran International)
۰ Nasrin Sotoudeh on prison, the hijab, and violence in Iran (The Guardian)
۰ Rapper Toomaj Salehi became an icon in Iran. It could cost him his life. (Washington Post)
۰ France denounces 'state hostage-taking' by Iran (Iran International)
Domestic issues
۰ Truckers join expanding labor strikes (Iran International)
۰ ‘Suicide crisis’: Five doctors commit suicide over 50 days (Iran International)
۰ Appointment of president’s wife to university board sparks outcry (Iran International)
۰ Iran commutes billionaire Babak Zanjani’s death sentence (BBC News)
Foreign policy + security
۰ How Princeton got burned by its outreach to Iran (Semafor)
۰ CNN gets rare look at Iranian missiles that hit Israel (CNN)
۰ In Iran, Iraqi Kurdistan President Barzani welcomed by Khamenei, IRGC (Al-Monitor)
۰ Iranian Nobel Laureate fears Israel confrontation is prelude to tighter domestic crackdown (RFE/RL)
۰ What is former Iranian leader Ahmadinejad doing on a secret trip to Budapest? (Euro News)
۰ Iranian IRGC warship crosses Equator for first time (DPA)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ Why are US sanctions against Iran’s oil exports ineffective? (RFE/RL)
۰ US-Iran sanctions swap deemed symbolic, ineffective by some analysts (VOA)
۰ Iran’s capacity to move oil reliant on Malaysian providers, US official says (Reuters)
۰ US seeks to Curb Iran’s fundraising capacity in Southeast Asia (Bloomberg)
۰ USCIRF calls for additional sanctions amidst new harsh enforcement of mandatory hijab law (USCIRF)
۰ US lawmakers sound alarm over Iran’s Bitcoin mining funding terrorism (Iran International)
۰ Scheme to transfer money to Iran results in guilty pleas (Justice.gov)
۰ Hard questions about the EU lifting sanctions on an Iranian tech company (Carnegie Endowment)
۰ Iran slaps sanctions on US, UK over Israel support (AFP)
۰ Sanctions, hobbled economy hit Iran's traditional carpet weavers hard (AP)
۰ Mystery shrouds process of designating US nationals as wrongfully detained abroad (VOA)
Diaspora
۰ From Iran to California, this professor protests for human rights–but at what cost? (The Guardian)