Memorandum of Misunderstanding
July 24, 2026
Salam reader,
Reading the tea leaves, it seems the United States is preparing to escalate the war—perhaps even this weekend. The Memorandum of Understanding—more like misunderstanding—is dead, though both the US and Iran continue to signal that they remain open to negotiations, even as US strikes entered their thirteenth consecutive night on July 23 (New York Times/X). Tehran has continued with attacks targeting Arab states housing US military bases, resulting in the death of four US soldiers this week (ABC News/CBS News).
Earlier this month, Bahrain and Kuwait secretly struck sites inside Iran for the first time (Wall Street Journal). The United Arab Emirates reportedly provided intelligence on targets and defensive air cover—a sign of growing Arab cooperation against Tehran. On July 22, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels entered the fight by attacking two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea as part of a new blockade targeting Saudi-linked ships (BBC News). (Read this Reuters exclusive detailing how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps supplied the Houthis additional missiles and equipment earlier this month).
On July 23, Tehran reportedly rejected the latest US ceasefire proposal, which Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi was said to have delivered to Iran, according to Iranian officials (New York Times). Iraqi officials denied the account. President Donald Trump appears to be losing patience with the Iranians, which suggests why he is increasingly inclined toward military escalation. He told Axios’ Barak Ravid on July 23:
“I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it.” (Axios)
The Wall Street Journal reported:
“The president in recent days has grown skeptical that negotiations with Iran can produce a lasting peace, according to people familiar with the matter. A senior administration official said Trump believes that the only thing Iran understands is military force, adding that he was in ‘revenge mode’ against Tehran. The president, the official said, sees few good options besides continuing strikes.”
A day prior, on July 22, Trump posted on Truth Social:
“From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran...” (X)
(Attacking civilian infrastructure is considered a violation of international humanitarian law.)
On the same day, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded:
“Our defense doctrine is clear: eye for an eye. Any aggression against Iran, including our infrastructure, will compel a powerful and decisive response. Those who contribute to such aggression, whatever the kind of support, will also be considered as legitimate targets.” (X)
(If you want insight into Araghchi’s thinking, his recent interview with state-affiliated interviewer Javad Mogoei is worth a watch with English subtitles. I found his comments on the January anti-regime uprising especially revealing even though he whitewashed it. Most strikingly, Mogoei acknowledged that protesters briefly took control of the northeastern holy city of Mashhad for several hours.)
The following day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio fired back, saying the president’s policy was “A head for an eye.” (X/New York Post)
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected in Washington to attend the late Senator Lindsey Graham’s wake on July 29 and to meet Trump the day before. The visit will provide an opportunity to discuss the Iran war and potential next steps (Fox News).
Interestingly, Roman Gofman, the new director of Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad, visited Washington two weeks ago and met with his American counterpart for talks on the war and Iran’s nuclear program (Axios). It was his first US visit since taking on the role.
At least two embassies in Tehran—the United Kingdom and France—have evacuated their staff this week. Additionally, the German embassy is operating on an emergency-only basis with limited staff (Iran International). Numerous airlines have also suspended or canceled flights across parts of the Middle East (New Arab). In my view, all of this is another sign that the conflict could be expanding (IranWire/Al Arabiya).
Nevertheless, Iran is once again demonstrating a familiar pattern: resilience. According to satellite imagery reviewed by Israeli and Western officials, “Iran has quickly rebuilt infrastructure damaged during the US and Israeli bombing campaign over recent months, from missile bases nestled deep inside mountains to bridges, ports and production facilities.” (Wall Street Journal)
This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Like any country emerging from conflict, the Islamic Republic is repairing damaged infrastructure. It’s also a way of signaling resilience and defiance to its foes.
That said, the human cost remains significant. Data compiled by Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, an independent conflict monitor, found that at least 21 airstrikes damaged civilian infrastructure across Iran in July, including bridges, railways, telecommunication sites, and three water facilities, among them at least one desalination plant supplying drinking water (MSNOW).
Several master’s degree applicants in southern Hormozgan province were unable to sit for their entrance exams because of the destruction of bridges and the closure of transit routes following US strikes (IranWire). Authorities reportedly made no alternative arrangements despite knowing many students couldn’t reach testing centers. Blackouts and water shortages continue to plague parts of the country, driven by a combination of systemic mismanagement and damage authorities attribute to US airstrikes (Al Jazeera). Also, inflation reached nearly 90 percent in June, while food prices rose 134 percent compared with the previous year (Al Jazeera).
Even the little joys are disappearing. Cafés and shops—among the few public spaces where young Iranians hang out to socialize and where many women stopped observing mandatory hijab—are coming under pressure. State media reported that several cafés in Tehran were shuttered for “failure to observe Islamic norms,” while others received warnings or were cited for alleged permit violations and street obstructions (IranWire).
In response to the shutdowns, one young man said:
“Any trace of vibrancy and being alive are nipped in the bud. How many more years of youth and life do we have left to wait for this country to become a normal place to live?” (Al Jazeera)
One Tehran café owner, whose business was closed on July 20, said the pressure had intensified in recent weeks because nightly pro-regime gatherings viewed café culture as incompatible with the atmosphere authorities wanted to create (Iran International). He noted, “One of them [a plainclothes officer] said our city was preparing for the funeral of the leader, yet you are here engaged in pleasure, music, and corruption.”
This week, authorities also removed prominent soccer commentator Adel Ferdosipour’s website, Football 360, after it criticized Team Melli, the Iranian national soccer team, and its head coach. The move left Ferdosipour in tears, as he said during a viral video:
“Why don’t you let people work in this country? How is this possible?.. Your ceiling is so low that you can’t tolerate anything. You have all the media and resources, but you’re so small that you can’t even tolerate a website and an application.” (Instagram)
These individual incidents may appear minor in isolation, but together they reflect a broader pattern of tightening repression, especially as executions continue to accelerate. This week, authorities executed three protesters—26-year-old Mehdi Khanaki, 18-year-old Erfan Esfandiari, and 23-year-old Gol Mohammad Mohammadi, an Afghan national—for their alleged roles in the January anti-regime uprising (RFERL/Al Jazeera/UN). Human rights groups view the executions as an attempt to silence dissent (AFP).
The news was noteworthy enough for President Trump to post on Truth Social a message about Mohammadi’s execution, adding, “The latest one of 52,000, plus, innocent protesters. Savages!!!..” It’s unclear where he got the 52,000 killed number from. It also shows that Trump is willing to invoke human rights when it suits his broader agenda regarding the Islamic Republic.
The United Nations Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran has called on Tehran to immediately halt the surge in protest-related executions unfolding against the backdrop of war, noting that ten more individuals are currently on death row (OHCHR).
In response to the surge in executions—which now total at least 851 since January, according to the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center—prisoners in Ward 2 of Ghezel Hesar Prison in Karaj have been on hunger strike for more than ten days (X/X).
Yet even as war and repression dominate daily life, Iranians have a remarkable ability to find humor in even the bleakest moments. When French luxury brand Dior posted a menswear campaign advertisement on Instagram on July 17, it received more than 88,000 comments, mostly from Iranians joking that the model’s attire and even the lighting looked like something straight out of family photo albums from Iran in the 1980s and 1990s (X/X/X/X). I’ll leave you with some AI-generated viral recreations inspired by that wave of nostalgia:
More soon,
Holly
P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.