Max pressure back, Saudi-Iran ties grow—and more

The Iranist for the week of November 14, 2024

Nov 14, 2024

NOTE: Since I missed last week’s updates, I mixed some in this week.

۱/1 Maximum Pressure is back

On November 5, just after casting his ballot on Election Day, Republican presidential nominee (now President-elect) Donald Trump said that he was “not looking to do damage to Iran.” (AFP) He added, “My terms are very easy. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. I’d like them to be a very successful country.”

In the early hours of November 6, Trump was declared the winner of the US presidential election. Under his previous administration, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the multilateral nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, which kept Iran’s nuclear program in check in exchange for sanctions relief. The Trump administration imposed its maximum pressure strategy, a twelve-point policy plan that included punitive sanctions as well as an oil embargo that would make the Islamic Republic—in their words—act like a “normal country.” In 2020, the Trump administration also assassinated Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani via a drone strike in Iraq.

HARD REVENGE. Iran has repeatedly vowed revenge for the late Quds Force commander and has singled out former Trump officials for their direct or indirect involvement. Since then, security has increased for former US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook, former Secretary of State and CIA Director Mike Pompeo, former National Security Advisor John Bolton, and several others—all of whom have continued to receive security details after their tenure ended. In 2022, the US Justice Department announced criminal charges against an IRGC member for allegedly trying to plan the assassination of Bolton, while Pompeo was also reportedly the target of an assassination plot.

Weeks before the first assassination attempt on Trump’s life on July 13, the Secret Service increased assets and resources after intelligence about an Iran plot to assassinate him. There was no evidence that would-be assassin Thomas Matthew Crooks was connected to Tehran. However, on November 8, three people—Jonathan Loadholt, Carlisle Rivera, and Farhad Shakeri—were charged in an alleged Iran-linked plot to assassinate President-elect Trump and women rights activist Masih Alinejad (CNN/New York Times). Rivera and Loadholt have been arrested, while Shakeri is at large and reportedly in Iran.

HOW DID IRAN REACT? Upon news of Trump’s win, the Iranian currency, the rial, was at a record low of 703,000 rials to the US dollar before recovering slightly later in the day to 696,150 rials (PBS). Because the news had happened later in the day in Iran, it wasn’t until November 7 that the president-elect graced the headlines of Iranian newspapers. Some of the headlines were: “The red situation in Washington,” “America is the Great Satan; it doesn’t matter who becomes president,” “Running away from globalism to Trumpism,” and “The return of the gambler,” an insult used by Soleimani to describe Trump (X). Hamshahri Daily stood out with its photoshop of Trump in an orange prison jumpsuit and shackles and the frontpage: “Trump the murderer:‌ The past crimes of Trump have united the nation of Iran against him.” (X)

On November 4, on the eve of the US presidential election, Abbas Araghchi said, “Who becomes the next US president has no value for us. There may be changes in tactics, but there will be no change in fundamental strategies.” (Middle East Eye) On November 7, President Masoud Pezeshkian made similar comments: “It makes no difference to us who won the US election,” adding that Tehran has prioritized “developing relations with Islamic and neighboring countries.” (AFP)

Interestingly, former First Vice President Hamid Aboutalebi told Pezeshkian to congratulate Trump (IranWire). He said, “Let your government spokesperson express hope for resolving Iran-US issues and personally take charge of managing relations between the two countries.”

It’s worth noting that “While Iranian officials project dismissiveness about the impacts of Trump’s victory, analysts and figures from across the political spectrum responded differently.” (Amwaj.Media) Some appeared unhappy at the outcome of the US presidential election because of Trump’s policies, while others saw it as an opportunity to engage the United States to make a new deal (New York Times).

On November 12, Pezeskhian said, “Whether we like it or not, we will have to deal with the US in the regional and international arenas, so it is better to manage this relation ourselves,” adding, “We have to treat our friends with generosity and handle our enemies with forbearance.” (Reuters)

Iran faces several challenges—including tensions with Israel and its arming of Russia in the Ukraine war—in the event of any potential negotiation with the incoming Trump administration. Whether Tehran decides to push ahead will ultimately be decided by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

HOW DID ORDINARY IRANIANS REACT? Though the clerical establishment worries about a return of maximum pressure, some Iranians welcome it because they think it’ll help oust the Islamic Republic. While there are no polls to determine how many Iranians support Trump, hopelessness on the ground due to systemic mismanagement, corruption, and repression, and the unsuccess of the Women, Life, Freedom uprising have some Iranians now counting on Trump and even Israel to do the heavy lifting for them.

But, of course, not all Iranians feel this way. As the Associated Press explains:

“Some foresee an all-out war between Tehran and Washington, particularly as other conflicts rage in the region. Others hold out hope that America’s 47th president might engage in unexpected diplomacy as he did with North Korea.”

WHAT WILL TRUMP’S IRAN POLICY LOOK LIKE? Trump’s maximum pressure strategy is expected to return, but as the Wall Street Journal notes, “Trump’s approach to Iran is likely to be colored by the knowledge that its agents tried to assassinate him and former top national security aides after they left office, former Trump officials said.”

Much of Trump’s cabinet picks have a pro-Israel stance and have been tough on Iran (Iran International). Read about what his pick for secretary of state, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), thinks of Tehran (IranWire).

Hook, who is now leading Trump’s transition team, told CNN:

“President Trump has no interest in regime change. The future of Iran will be decided by the Iranian people... But what President Trump did say in Riyadh was that he would isolate Iran diplomatically and weaken them economically so that they can’t fund all of the violence that’s going with the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and these proxies that run around Iraq and Syria today, all of whom destabilize Israel and our Gulf partners.” (X)

Meanwhile, two Iranian officials allege that Elon Musk, a top adviser to President-elect Trump, met Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations to discuss how to defuse tensions between the two countries (New York Times).

It’s important to note that just because President-elect Trump selected certain people to join his cabinet doesn’t mean he’ll follow his old playbook and/or listen to their advice.

۲/2 IAEA chief visits Tehran to discuss nuclear issue

۳/3 Women, Life, Freedom continues

On November 2, a female student at the Islamic Azad University Science and Research campus in Tehran stripped to her undergarments in what many view was an act of protest against mandatory hijab rules. In a viral video shared on social media, the woman who has been identified on social media as Ahou Daryaei, a senior student in French Literature, was seen in the courtyard of the university at one point seated and surrounded by two university security officers before walking around and shouting inaudible things. An Iranian social media news channel, Amir Kabir newsletter, and students claim that she had her clothes torn by university security and removed her remaining clothes in protest (Telegraph).

One eyewitness told the Telegraph:

“Around noon, near the entrance of the faculty, I saw a girl being grabbed and forcibly taken by security forces. She wasn’t wearing a headscarf. Then they reached the security building near the entrance, where a male and a female security guard grabbed her and tried to take her into the office with force. She resisted, and her hoodie was torn off her body, it made her very angry and she took off the rest of her clothes. She angrily yelled at them and took off her trousers - she sat outside the campus for a few minutes and the officer became more aggressive. I couldn’t see much but, a few minutes after she started walking, several plain-clothes officers ambushed her and forced her into a car.”

According to a second video, at least five security officers forcibly took away the protesting student in an unmarked car. She reportedly suffered injuries during the arrest, including head trauma, and traces of blood were visible where she was put into a car (Telegraph).

Iranian authorities, including Amir Mahjoub, the director of public relations at the university, were quick to blame the incident on “severe mental stress and suffering from psychological disorders,” without providing any evidence. The Iranian government spokesperson said that, “Instead of viewing this issue under a security lens, we are rather looking at it with a social lens and seek to solve the problems of this student as a troubled individual.” (Reuters)

Many Iranians, including activists, saw Daryaei’s act as an act of bravery and resistance against mandatory hijab and the clerical establishment because such an act could get Daryaei beaten up, imprisoned, or even killed like Mahsa Jina Amini. Many Iranian women on social media have been saying, “If Ahou is crazy, we are all mad.” (Iran International) Daryaei’s story has been amplified on social media using the hashtag #دختر_علوم_تحقیقات or #Girl_Science_Research.

Azam Jangravi, one of the Girls of Revolution Street protesters who took off their mandatory hijab and stood on an electric box in 2018-2019, wrote on X:

"When I protested against mandatory hijab, after the security forces arrested me, my family was pressured to declare me mentally ill, the Islamic republic of Iran even taking me to a forensic doctor… My family didn’t do it, but many families under pressure do, thinking it’s the best way to protect their loved ones. This is how the Islamic Republic tries to discredit women by questioning their mental health.”

Daryaei is reportedly now at a psychiatric hospital, and there is no news about her whereabouts or condition. As the Center for Human Rights in Iran notes, “The forced transfer of peaceful protesters, dissidents, and political prisoners to psychiatric hospitals as tools of repression to delegitimize acts of protest and silence dissenting voices is a routine practice by the Islamic Republic.”

Human rights organizations are concerned about Daryaei and calling for her release (The Guardian).

After the incident, authorities announced plans to establish a “hijab clinic” for women who defy mandatory hijab rules (IranWire). The clinic is said to offer “scientific and psychological treatment for hijab removal” and was decided upon due to “increased demand.”

WHERE IS ROSHANAK? Meanwhile, on November 3, a 25-year-old woman was arrested after confronting a man on a motorcycle who harassed her on the street over her hijab (Hengaw). On October 31, Roshanak Molaei Alishah shared CCTV footage of the confrontation on her X account with the caption, “A scene from being a woman in Iran.” (CHRI) Sources told Hengaw Organization for Human Rights that she was interrogated for her posts on November 2 and then arrested the following day. Molaei Alishah had previously been arrested during the Women, Life, Freedom uprising and sentenced to six years in prison but was granted amnesty in February 2023. Her current whereabouts are unknown.

Separately, prominent Iranian actress Taraneh Alidoosti shared a picture of herself defying mandatory hijab again (IranWire). In 2022, Alidoosti, the star of Asghar Farhadi’s Oscar-winning film, ‘The Salesman,’ posted a photo holding a Women, Life, Freedom sign without hijab, prompting her arrest and imprisonment. She was released on bail in January 2023.

Read: 100 Days In: Pezeshkian’s policies deepen concerns for women’s rights

۵/5 Six Women, Life, Freedom protesters sentenced to death

Last week, a Jewish man was executed over a fatal stabbing he claimed was in self-defense (VOA).

۶/6 CIA official charged with leak showing Israeli military plans against Iran

۷/7 Saudi armed forces chief visits Tehran for increased defense ties

OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:

Human rights

۰ Three Baha’is arrested at religious gathering in Iran (IranWire)

۰ Arrests, imprisonments of Baha’i soar as Iran’s war on religious minority intensifies (CHRI)

۰ Teachers’ union activist arrested in Tehran (Hengaw)

۰ Woman arrested in Ardabil, whereabouts remain unknown (Hengaw)

۰ Forces storm memorial for Yalda Aghafazli, detain mourners (IranWire)

۰ Imprisoned lawyer rushed to hospital after medical emergency (IranWire)

۰ Iran detains citizen over social media posts on Israeli strikes (IranWire)

۰ Narges Mohammadi faces potential cancer diagnosis (IranWire)

۰ Five years later, still no justice for massacre of November 2019 protesters (CHRI)

Domestic issues

۰ Armita’s story: Iran’s Generation Z rebellion against the ayatollahs (IranWire)

۰ Power outages begin in Iran due to fuel shortage (Iran International)

۰ Iranian capital builds ‘defensive tunnel’ after Israeli strikes (Reuters)

۰ IRGC convoy ambushed in southeast Iran, six killed (IranWire)

Foreign policy + security

۰ Iranian-American rights activist expresses defiance over Iranian plots to kill her and Trump (AP)

۰ US says Iranian-American held in Iran as tensions high following Israeli attack on country (AP)

۰ Iran aware of reports about Iranian-American journalist’s arrest, ministry says (Reuters)

۰ Iran slams ‘destabilizing presence’ as US sends B-52 bombers to region (AFP)

۰ Iran adviser hints at expansion of missile range, nuclear doctrine review after Israel strikes (Reuters)

۰ Israel’s strikes on Iran spark interest in air-launched ballistic missiles (Reuters)

۰ Supreme leader says enemies will receive ‘crushing response’ (BBC)

۰ Netanyahu says Iran’s government fears its people more than Israel (Reuters)

۰ Iran leaks personal data of Israeli nuclear scientist and senior defense official (Haaretz)

۰ Security upped for IDF base commander after Iranian assassination plot (Times of Israel)

۰ Reformist clerics imply Iran should back two-state solution for Israel and Palestine (The Guardian)

۰ NATO chief warns of threat from Russian ties with China, Iran, North Korea (Reuters)

۰ Russian rocket launches Iranian satellites into orbit as Moscow and Tehran expand ties (AP)

۰ Where Asia meets Europe, allies become rivals in a tangle of interests (New York Times)

۰ Iran cites 19th century British maps in row over ownership of islands (The Guardian)

۰ US carried out strikes against Iranian linked targets in Syria (Reuters)

۰ Iran’s help has transformed Yemen's Houthi rebels into a potent military force, UN experts say (AP)

Iran deal + sanctions

۰ Iran, Russia link payment networks in bid to bypass sanctions (Al-Monitor)

۰ Iran Air reports increase in number of Istanbul flights after EU sanctions (IRNA)