Max pressure back, Munich conference controversy—and more
The Iranist for the week of February 7, 2025
THE هفت/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:
۱/1 Max Pressure officially back again
On February 4, US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum to reinstate maximum pressure (whitehouse.gov). The policy aims that:
“Iran be denied a nuclear weapon and intercontinental ballistic missiles; that Iran’s network and campaign of regional aggression be neutralized; that the IRGC and its surrogates be disrupted, degraded, or denied access to the resources that sustain their destabilizing activities; and to counter Iran’s aggressive development of missiles and other asymmetric and conventional weapons capabilities.”
It’s important to note that maximum pressure was never technically removed as the Joe Biden administration upheld the unilateral sanctions imposed by the first Trump administration. They were just not strictly enforced.
Upon news of reinstating maximum pressure, the Iranian rial was 850,000 to the US dollar—a historic high (VOA Persian). A decade ago, it was 320,000 rials to $1.
Asked whether he would talk to his Iranian counterpart, Trump said he would reach out, adding:
“…I’m one that doesn’t care whether I reach out or they reach out. A lot of people say, ‘Let them reach out, sir.’ To me, it doesn’t matter. It’s just talk.” (Roll Call)
Later in the day, during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the US president said in response to a journalist:
“So, you say Iran is so weak. I appreciate you saying that. They’re not weak. They’re very strong right now, and we’re not going to allow them to have a nuclear weapon. It’s very simple… Doesn’t mean they won’t be weak, but you know what? We just don’t want them to have a nuclear weapon. They can’t have a nuclear weapon.”
Responding to Trump’s comments, Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said that talks between the US president and his Iranian counterpart “are not on the agenda.” (IranWire)
On February 5, President Masoud Pezeshkian called on OPEC members to unite against US sanctions on Iran (Reuters). Iranian oil exports are currently at 1.5 million barrels per day (BPD), with the majority going to China. Only 41.2 percent of Iranian oil is reportedly sanctioned by Iran (Lloyds’s List). The Trump administration plans to drive imports to zero.
On the same day, Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social:
“I want Iran to be a great and successful Country, but one that cannot have a Nuclear Weapon. Reports that the United States, working in conjunction with Israel, is going to blow Iran into smithereens,” ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED. I would much prefer a Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement, which will let Iran peacefully grow and prosper. We should start working on it immediately, and have a big Middle East Celebration when it is signed and completed. God Bless the Middle East!”
On February 6, in an apparent response to Trump’s comments, Pezeshkian said:
“We are not seeking nuclear weapons… verifying this issue is an easy task.” (Times of Israel)
On that same day, the Treasury Department announced its first batch of sanctions on a network of more than a dozen individuals and firms that help ship millions of barrels of Iranian oil to China (AP). Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei called the sanctions “completely unjustified and contrary to international rules and regulations.” (AP)
On February 7, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called talks with the United States “not smart, wise, or honorable,” noting that “there should be no negotiations with such a government.” (AP) However, he stopped short of issuing a direct order not to negotiate with Washington. Khamenei drew from the experience that Tehran had negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) only for the US not to “uphold their end of the deal.” He also said that such an agreement “has no effect on solving the country’s problems.”
These comments arguably echo Khamenei’s rhetoric from earlier years: Not trusting the United States to hold their side of the bargain and Iran’s ability to withstand sanctions through its resistance economy. It’s also another example of how the Supreme Leader's choice of words allows him not to be responsible for any specific outcome.
In the backdrop of possible talks, the New York Times is reporting that based on intelligence collected during the last months of the Joe Biden administration, Iranian scientists are “exploring a faster, if cruder, approach to developing an atomic weapon if Tehran’s leadership decides to race for a bomb.”
TALKS OF ASSASSINATION In an exchange with reporters on February 4, Trump said that he had given instructions that if Tehran were to assassinate him that Iran “would be obliterated.” (AP) Iran has plotted to kill Trump, though the assassination attempt on the president during his campaign was reportedly not connected to Tehran.
The following day, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman called Trump’s comments “provocative,” adding that “Tehran reserves its right to pursue a legal process for achieving justice regarding the killing of national champions and senior officials to achieve results in domestic and international courts.” (Iran International)
SIGNALS FROM WASHINGTON Last week, Executive Order Reevaluating And Realigning United States Foreign Aid froze the work of numerous Iran-oriented human rights and Internet freedom organizations for ninety days until the administration reviews each grant individually (The Iranist). Now, Tehran is praising the decision to cut funding, with numerous state media outlets weighing in (AP). Hardline dailies published pieces with titles such as “The opposition is orphaned” and "Fatal blow to the opposition.” (Amwaj.media) State-run IRNA said that “cutting the budget of foreign-based opposition” could “affect the sphere of relations” between Iran and the United States.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration also refrained from criticizing the Islamic Republic during a review by the United Nations Human Rights Council meeting in Geneva last week (before the US withdrew from the UN body). As the Associated Press reports, “For those in Iran’s government, there’s anticipation this could mean that Trump is willing to negotiate, something he repeatedly brought up in his election campaign as a possibility.”
۲/2 Iran making moves to be taken off the FATF blacklist
۳/3 Kurdish-Iranian activist Pakhshan Azizi at imminent risk of execution
۴/4 Iran displays Russian-made defense systems in military exercise
۵/5 Body of Jamshid Sharmahd transferred back to Germany
Meanwhile, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) released ‘seeking information posters’ for two Iranian intelligence officers involved in the disappearance of former FBI agent Robert Levinson (CNN).
۶/6 Munich Security Conference reinstates invitation for former crown prince
۷/7 Star of Oscar-nominated film banned from traveling outside Iran
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Two more political prisoners join dozens at risk of political executions (CHRI)
۰ Political activist Mehdi Mahmoudian jailed for eight months over social media posts (IranWire)
۰ Mazdak Maleki sentenced to prison and additional punishments (HRANA)
۰ Protest singer Vafadar starts ankle monitoring sentence in Iran (IranWire)
۰ Iran files case against two actors for shaking hands at film festival (Iran International)
۰ Iran arrests political activist known for criticizing regime’s meddling in regional affairs (AP)
۰ A young Iranian’s plight in Turkey underscores horrors of refugee life (Iran International)
۰ 1,200 activists demand end to executions of women in Iran (IranWire)
Domestic issues
۰ Bush crash in Kerman kills six students (Iran Front Page)
۰ Man kills four family members before suicide in Hamadan province (IranWire)
۰ With Gen Z already lost, Tehran seeks a following in Gen Alpha (Iran International)
۰ Iranian opposition hopeful for change at home following collapse of Syria’s regime (NPR)
۰ Tehran shopkeepers protest rial’s steep devaluation, soaring prices (Iran International)
Foreign policy + security
۰ Daniel Khalife jailed for spying for Iran and prison escape (BBC)
۰ Iran unveils new ballistic missile that can reach Israel (Times of Israel)
۰ Iran sends four navy vessels to UAE for first time (Iran International)
۰ Iran inaugurates its first drone-carrier warship (AP)
۰ US ‘aware’ of reports Iran trying to ship missile propellant chemical from China (VOA)
۰ Three Indian nationals arrested on charges of photographing restricted areas (HRANA)
۰ Iran says Trump’s Gaza proposal follows Israeli plans to ‘wipe out’ Palestinians (Reuters)
۰ Khamenei names Hezbollah leader as his ‘representative’ in Lebanon (Times of Israel)
۰ Syria’s new leader denounces Iran, calling its proxies a regional threat (NPR)
۰ Syria’s new ruler tours region as Iranians debate shifting sands (Amwaj.Media)
۰ Iran-Azerbaijan tensions rise over Israel ties, alleged assassination plot (Jerusalem Post)
۰ Iran closes accommodation center for undocumented migrants near Afghanistan border (Amu)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ Iran warns any attack on its nuclear sites would trigger ‘all-out war’ (Al Jazeera)
Diaspora
۰ Interview with Iranian-American astronaut Jasmin Moghbeli (BBC Persian)