Mass deportations, Tucker Carlson's Iran interview—and more
The Iranist for the week of July 11, 2025
THE هفت/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:
۱/1 The latest on Iran’s nuclear program
WHAT ABOUT THE ENRICHED URANIUM? On July 4, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) team of inspectors left Iran over safety reasons (Wall Street Journal). The group was driven by road out of Iran despite international departures resuming from Tehran’s main airport. Earlier in the week, parliament had suspended cooperation with the United Nations nuclear watchdog.
On July 8, the French foreign intelligence service chief Nicolas Lerner said that Iran’s nuclear program was “very, very delayed” by the US strikes, but added that it had only been set back by several months (Times of Israel). Lerner noted, “There’s consensus on the fact that the material—the 450 kilograms [990 pounds] of enriched uranium—maybe a small part was destroyed, but that material remains in the hands of the regime.”
On July 10, an anonymous senior Israeli official said that deeply buried stocks of enriched uranium at the Isfahan nuclear facility have not been destroyed or moved, but would be a difficult recovery effort (AP). Asked about this, the White House spokesperson responded with the following statement: “As President [Donald] Trump has said many times, Operation Midnight Hammer totally obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities. The entire world is safer thanks to his decisive leadership.”
The same senior official told reporters that “Israel decided to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities because of intelligence it had that Tehran had begun rapidly and secretly proceeding to weaponize its enriched uranium after Israel’s targeted assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September.” The official noted that Iran’s nuclear program had been set back up to two years.
On the same day, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that if his country is threatened again, they would respond “with greater force.” (Reuters)
Sources told Axios and Al-Monitor that Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer appears to have obtained a green light from the Trump administration to strike Iran again if it moves enriched uranium or rebuilds its nuclear program.
WILL TALKS RESUME? On July 7, during a White House dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Donald Trump told reporters:
“I would love to be able to take those sanctions off and give them a chance. They want to meet and make peace. We have scheduled Iran talks. They want to talk. They want to work something out. They are very different now than they were two weeks ago.” (Al Jazeera)
The following day, on July 8, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said, “No request for a meeting has been made on our side to the American side.” (Al Jazeera)
Interestingly, in a July 10 Financial Times op-ed, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote:
“Iran remains interested in diplomacy but we have good reason to have doubts about further dialogue. If there is a desire to resolve this amicably, the US should show genuine readiness for an equitable accord. Washington should also know that its actions in recent weeks have changed the situation.”
CARLSON INTERVIEWS PEZESHKIAN On July 7, American commentator Tucker Carlson released an interview with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (YouTube). The move wasn’t unexpected—I noted back in May that at least one Persian language outlet had publicly called for Carlson to visit Iran, and a source told me the interview had been in the works for several months. The interview, which was conducted remotely, had no pushback and was for a key audience: President Donald Trump and his base. Before the war, it might’ve had some influence on Trump’s thinking, but Carlson is now on his bad side due to his anti-war stance. Here are the key takeaways:
On an alleged assassination attempt:
“It was not the United States that was behind the attempt on my life. It was Israel. I was in a meeting… they tried to bombard the area in which we were holding that meeting.”
On IAEA access and damage to Iran’s nuclear program:
“We stand ready to have such supervision. Unfortunately, as a result of the United States’ unlawful attacks against our nuclear centers and installations, many of the pieces of equipment and the facilities there have been severely damaged.”
“We still do not know the extent of the damage caused to the nuclear sites. Access is currently not possible because they have been severely affected. Once access is restored, we can consider inspections. The IAEA’s silence in the face of these attacks, which are contrary to international law, has sown mistrust among the Iranians.”
On prospects for diplomacy:
“I am of the belief that we could very much easily resolve our differences and conflicts with the United States through dialogue and talks.”
“There is a condition… for restarting the talks. How are we going to trust the United States again? We re-entered the negotiations, then how can we know for sure that in the middle of the talks the Israeli regime will not be given the permission again to attack us?”
After the interview, twenty-four hardline lawmakers wrote a letter to Pezeshkian criticizing his interview (IranWire). In the letter, they called his comments “questionable” and accused him of “conveying Iran’s weakness to America.”
Meanwhile, on July 5, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since the war by attending a religious gathering (CNN).
۲/2 Three political prisoners face imminent execution
۳/3 More details emerge from Evin prison attack
According to the Washington Post, which conducted digital forensics using satellite imagery and social media videos, four areas of the Evin Prison complex were hit on June 23: an administrative building, a visitation area for families, a medical center, and a solitary confinement cell block, identified by two former prisoners. But high-resolution imagery taken by Maxar Technologies identified 17 damaged or destroyed buildings across the complex, suggesting multiple strikes (Washington Post).
A spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Brigadier General Effie Defrin claimed the prison complex was used for “intelligence operations against the State of Israel, including counterespionage” and the strike was “carried out in a precise manner to mitigate harm to civilians imprisoned within the prison to the greatest extent possible.” (Washington Post).
On July 7, the Center for Human Rights in Iran published the firsthand account of political prisoners Abolfazl Qadyani and Mehdi Mahmoudian, which exposes the deliberate endangerment and brutal treatment of prisoners during wartime by the Islamic Republic:
“Around noon on Monday, Evin Prison shook with several consecutive explosions. Two or three blasts occurred near Ward 4, and when prisoners rushed out, they saw the infirmary—just meters away—on fire, and the prison’s food and hygiene storage facility destroyed. Some inmates entered the infirmary to help the wounded, managing to carry out several of the dead and injured.
At the same time, the prison’s high-security wing—where dozens of prisoners were held in solitary confinement—was also damaged. The cell doors opened, and terrified prisoners and guards fled from the ward. By around 2 pm, with only a few prison and security staff present, prisoners themselves pulled the bodies of about 15 to 20 individuals—infirmary staff, inmates, warehouse workers, and some guards from Ward 209—from under the rubble…
Around 2 pm, after recovering from the initial shock, IRGC and Intelligence Ministry agents turned their guns on prisoners who were helping the wounded, aiming at their chests and foreheads. Despite the risk of another Israeli strike, inmates from Ward 4 were forced back into their cells and locked in. Water was cut off, and parts of the ward were left without electricity.”
The New York Times has also strung together an account of what transpired.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights spokesman Thameen Al-Kheetan called the Israeli attack “a grave breach of international humanitarian law.” (New York Times)
The Iranian judiciary alleges that seventy-nine were killed. Human Rights Activists in Iran has identified forty-seven of those killed so far (HRANA).
After the Israeli air strikes, hundreds of prisoners were moved to overcrowded prisons. According to advocacy director Bahar Ghandehari at the Center for Human Rights in Iran:
“Prisons are dangerously overcrowded, filthy, infested with insects and pests, lacking proper ventilation, and utterly unfit for human habitation. Many prisoners are crammed into cells holding up to three times their intended capacity, forced to sleep on floors without access to basic hygiene, and denied adequate food and clean water.”
Amnesty International points out that authorities are also concealing the fate or whereabouts of dozens of other prisoners, which may amount to enforced disappearance—a crime under international law (IranWire). Among those missing is dissident rapper Danial Moghadam (IranWire). Also missing and presumed dead are about 100 transgender inmates, according to human rights lawyer Reza Shafakhah (New York Times).
Capitalizing on the strike to push their narrative, Iranian officials granted rare access to Western journalists—including Sky News and the BBC—to tour parts of the prison complex usually off-limits to the public (Times of Israel).
Meanwhile, it’s been seventeen days since the ceasefire, but most Iranians think the war may recommence. Read about how the war has changed daily life in Tehran. Also, check out this photo essay by the Associated Press on how Iranians lived with fear and anxiety during the war.
۴/4 More than 600,000 Afghans deported since June 1
Read some of the heartbreaking stories of Afghan families being torn apart.
۵/5 UK parliament’s report confirms ‘rising’ threat from Iran
Meanwhile, it’s been six months since British couple Craig and Lindsay Foreman were taken hostage by Tehran while on a “once-in-a-lifetime” motorbike trip around the world that included a stop in Iran (BBC). Arrested in January and later charged on allegations of espionage, their family has not heard from them since.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi revealed in an interview with Le Monde that an 18-year-old French-German cyclist who has been missing in Iran since mid-June had been arrested (France24).
Separately, the State Department set up a page that explicitly states in all caps: “DO NOT TRAVEL TO IRAN!”
۶/6 FM has ‘fruitful’ discussion with Saudi crown prince
۷/7 Mother based in Louisiana for 47 years released from ICE custody
Iranians in ICE custody were reportedly at 670 late last month (The Intercept). Those numbers are expected to rise.
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human Rights
۰ Man executed publicly for killing four women (IranWire)
۰ Two Iranian Kurdish brothers face execution after third brother was hanged (IranWire)
۰ Environmental activist flogged for ‘insulting’ Ebrahim Raisi (IranWire)
۰ Border Guard kills 23-year-old Kolbar in western Iran (IranWire)
۰ Environmental activist arrested, held incommunicado (IranWire)
۰ Authorities arrest Baha’i woman while visiting detained husband (IranWire)
۰ Calligrapher arrested in Mashhad, whereabouts unknown for 10 Days (IranWire)
۰ Court upholds six-year sentence for political prisoner despite retrial (IranWire)
۰ Activists sound alarm over US cuts to programs providing internet access and promoting democracy in Iran (CNN)
Domestic Issues
۰ Official charged over social media post asking Israel to kill president (IranWire)
۰ Iran tells religious, government bodies to promote anti-US, anti-Israel messages during Muharram (IranWire)
۰ Iran returns controversial bill to parliament over legal ambiguities (IranWire)
۰ Iran bans border crossing in western Baneh (IranWire)
Foreign Policy + Security
۰ US, Israel diverge on how to pursue Iran endgame after strikes, diplomats say (Reuters)
۰ Donald Trump Responds to Iran Mar-a-Lago assassination ‘threat’ (Newsweek)
۰ Satellite photos suggest Iran attack on Qatar air base hit geodesic dome used for US communications (AP)
۰ US strikes on Iran included F-22s, F-35s, Hegseth says (Al-Monitor)
۰ Amid Israel’s devastating strikes on Iran, a woman traveling solo had to find her way out (CNN)
۰ Russia’s Lavrov meets Iran’s Araqchi, renews offer to help solve conflict (Reuters)
۰ China and Russia keep their distance from Iran during crisis (New York Times)
۰ Why rearming Iran is risky gambit for China—for now (Al-Monitor)
۰ BRICS leaders call attacks on Iran ‘violation of international law,’ express ‘concerns’ over Gaza (Jerusalem Post)
Iran Deal + Sanctions
۰ UK threatens sanctions on Iran if it does not end uncertainty on nuclear plan (The Guardian)
۰ US issues additional Iran-related sanctions, Treasury website shows (Reuters)
۰ New US sanctions on Iran increase pressure on Iraq (OilPrice)
۰ Pakistani, Indian firms among six US sanctioned for Iran oil trade (Dawn)
۰ UK shipping insurers are caught in Iran oil sanctions grey zone (The Times)
Economy + Trade
۰ Embattled Iran slams consequences of war on oil markets (CNBC)