Mass arrests, signs of collapse—and more
The Iranist for the week of June 27, 2025
While the ceasefire continues to hold, it’s been a whirlwind of interviews, meetings, and the usual demands of my analytical work—hence the brevity of this week’s newsletter.
THE هفت/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:
۱/1 Nuclear program not “obliterated” as Trump described
However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi admitted that “excessive and serious” damage was done to the country’s nuclear sites (BBC).
۲/2 Tehran is coming back to life, but Iranians are shaken
A breakdown of casualty figures from Human Rights Activists in Iran—a key resource for many rights organizations:
Read their 12-day report with casualty and damage figures, information on security-related arrests, and more.
۳/3 Crackdown underway with executions and 700+ arrests
Many Iranians are worried about the Islamic Republic taking revenge on the Iranian people. This concern has been echoed widely online, including in this viral anonymous post:
“Look what the clerics have done to us that news of a ceasefire is scarier than war itself.” (X)
۴/4 Israeli strike damaged Evin Prison, families report chaos
After the strike on the notorious prison, the Iranian prison authority announced it had “transferred the inmates who were serving their sentences in this prison (Evin) to other facilities within Tehran province.” (Times of Israel) However, serious concerns remain about the “whereabouts or conditions of detainees held in Evin’s high-security wards—including Ward 209 and Ward 240 (run by the Ministry of Intelligence), Ward 2-A (run by the IRGC), and Ward 241 (run by the Judiciary’s Intelligence Protection Unit),” as Nobel Laureate Narges Mohammadi explained in a post on X. Meanwhile, the families of detained French citizens are urgently pleading for proof of life (Reuters). Many have expressed concerns about the strike putting the lives of prisoners at risk and are calling for the release of all political prisoners (Al-Monitor/TIME/CNN).
Interestingly, reports suggest that the surveillance footage showing an explosion at the entrance of Evin Prison may have been generated using “AI with the help of an old image of the prison gate.” (DW) That said, a strike on the prison has been confirmed.