March election divisions, Houthis strike Iran cargo—and more
March election divisions, Houthis strike Iran cargo—and more
The Iranist for the week of February 14, 2024
THE هفت/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:
۱/1 Forty-five years of the Islamic Republic
February 11 marked the forty-fifth anniversary of the Islamic Republic (AP). The date commemorates the ouster of Western-backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and the takeover by the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The anniversary was marked by thousands attending rallies across Iran in support of the clerical establishment. State television claimed that “millions participated.”
It was the usual anti-American fanfare with a more pronounced anti-Israel theme this year, given the ongoing Gaza war. Israeli flags were burned, and an effigy of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was hung. A paratrooper also jumped from a plane with a Palestinian flag.
President Ebrahim Raisi accused Western countries of backing “the Zionist regime’s (Israel) crimes against humanity in Gaza.” He added that “The bombing of Gaza has to be stopped as soon as possible” and that the “death of the Zionist regime has come.” Raisi also called for Israel to be expelled from the United Nations (Times of Israel).
On display were domestically produced missiles—such as the Qasem Soleimani and Sejjil—as well as drones and the newly inaugurated Simorgh satellite carrier.
As part of the pre-election atmosphere (see #2), some pro-regime women appeared without mandatory hijab (X). The photos of the women prompted comparisons to Mahsa Jina Amini, who was killed for allegedly violating mandatory hijab rules in 2022 (and prompted the Women, Life, Freedom uprising).
One of the women, who sported a bootleg Louis Vuitton hat and held a photo of assassinated Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani, said she was attending the rally “so the enemies know that lusting after the smallest parcel of our homeland is in vain and for love of Haj Qasem Soleimani.” (X)
Some Iranians used the date as an opportunity to protest. Iranians were heard chanting from their windows and rooftops in Tehran on the eve of the anniversary, “Death to the Islamic Republic.” (Instagram)
The Deputy Special Envoy for Iran, Abram Paley, issued a video message on the anniversary. In it, Paley said:
“Instead of embracing peace and prosperity, the Islamic Republic has brought only violence and corruption at home and abroad. To the Iranian people: the US will continue to support you and work with partners to counter the regime’s support for terrorism, which comes only at your expense.” (X)
۲/2 Reformists divided over upcoming sham election in March*
* “Reformists” or “Moderates” describe themselves as individuals who believe in the status quo and reforming the Islamic Republic, while “Principlists” or “Fundamentalists” are what Western media call “hardliners.”
On February 10, the Reformist Front issued a statement that they could not participate in the March 1 elections because they “find it impossible to take part and present a list of candidates” in Tehran (Iran International). The Guardian Council, a hardline-dominated vetting body picked by the Supreme Leader, has disqualified 37,000 candidates, allowing 12,033 to run, with only thirty said to be moderate candidates. The move is part of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s vision to continue to have a hardline-led in all branches of government.
The Reformist Front said in its statement:
“We cannot take part in a meaningless, non-competitive, unfair election which is not going to have an impact on the way the country is governed… The discretionary supervision by the Guardian Council that limits the people’s choices is one of the main reasons for the inefficiency of the Iranian government and has led to many political, economic, social, and cultural crises.”
The Reformist Front warned that this would lead to a low voter turnout and that “officials and institutions” were responsible for its outcome. The statement appeared to be the front’s way of boycotting the election. Separately, a group of 110 reformists—made up of former lawmakers, civil society activists, and journalists—have called on the Guardian Council to allow reformists to run and for Iranians to vote so they can have some voice in parliament (Iran International). These two takes suggest a divide between what remains of the moderate/reformist camp.
Many have come out and criticized the Guardian Council’s decision. Reformist politician Rasoul Montajabnia said, “We have treated the people in a way that if we tell them it is daylight, they would become convinced that it is definitely the nighttime,” noting how disillusioned and distrusting Iranians have become of the clerical establishment (Iran International).
The core regime supporters will participate in the election, regardless, while the minority that want to participate are apathetic because they are disillusioned by the predictability of the election outcome. However, most Iranians are fed up with the status quo and do not see the Islamic Republic as redeemable. They want it gone and will inevitably boycott the election. This is a crisis of the clerical establishment’s own making, prompted by systemic mismanagement, corruption, and repression.
Polling numbers are telling: The Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) published polling conducted by an unnamed government agency that said there would be a 30 percent voter turnout in the upcoming election, with 15 percent participation in the capital, Tehran. Many predict another hardline-dominated parliament and a historically low voter turnout. Still, these numbers suggest the March 1 election will be the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic’s forty-five-year history. The polling numbers were reported by other media outlets and prompted authorities to pressure outlets to remove the articles mentioning them (Iran International).
Carnival time: In the lead-up to the elections, authorities loosen public restrictions and show “tolerance” to encourage voting. Most recent examples include a state television presenter not appearing in a chador, men dancing on state television, and a Portuguese analyst appearing without mandatory hijab on television (X). This is a well-known pre-election tactic.
One Iranian social media user posted a video of the dancing men and wrote:
“It’s close to the election, and they’ve turned the television into a dance house. Remember, you only have 2 weeks to shake it. Because after the election, they’ll kick your butt—now keep shaking it.” (X)
Meanwhile, the state broadcaster, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), launched 200 television channels dedicated to election campaigning and coverage focusing on all of Iran’s thirty-one provinces (Al-Monitor).
۳/3 Iran and the United States have exchanged messages, says Iranian foreign minister
۴/4 After years of complaints, Supreme Leader banned from Meta—but not X
On February 9, Meta removed the Facebook and Instagram accounts run on behalf of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (AP). For years, activists have long pushed to have Khamenei deplatformed from social media, especially in the wake of the Women, Life, Freedom uprising. The move came after months of pressure about his online support and promotion of Hamas after the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
Meta issued a statement without any specifics:
“We have removed these accounts for repeatedly violating our Dangerous Organizations & Individuals policy.” (CNN)
۵/5 Mugs cause controversy in Iran (YES, MUGS)
Iran’s version of Amazon, Digikala, is under fire by hardliners for selling mugs that are “offensive to the sacred.” (IranWire) One mug, for instance, reads, “The expression of Fatameh Zahra when you touch her mug.”
Fatemeh Zahra is the Prophet Mohammad’s daughter and the wife of Ali, the first Caliph in Shia Islam. It also happens to be a common name amongst conservative Iranian families—which some Iranian social media users pointed out.
According to the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, “people” had complained about the products being sold on Digikala’s website. On February 8, Tehran’s Prosecutor’s office filed a judicial procedure against Digikala for the mugs, which led to the arrest of Digikala’s CEO Masoud Tabatabai on February 11 (IranWire). The day prior, pro-regime vigilantes wrote threatening messages on the walls of Digikala's building in Tehran: “Blasphemy is our red line,” “It must be shut down,” and “We will go after every single employee.” (Iran International)
In response to the controversy, some Iranians resorted to making memes. One Iranian social media posted an aftabeh, watering can, with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini on it (X). Another pointed out that a Qasem Soleimani puzzle was being sold and sarcastically said that “Digikala must be reprimanded for this.” (X)
In February 2023, Digikala came under fire when photos of its female employees without mandatory hijab were publicized.
۶/6 Oil minister claims Iran’s main gas pipeline hit by ‘terrorist attacks’
۷/7 Houthi rebels strike cargo ship bound for Iran
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Four Baluch men handed death penalty on security charges (IranWire)
۰ Iran is targeting its opponents in Britain (The Economist)
Domestic affairs
۰ Iran's main gas pipeline hit by sabotage, oil minister says (Reuters)
۰ Ahmadinejad eyes a return to office, former aide says (Iran International)
۰ MP claims disqualification stemmed from criticism of Russia (Iran International)
۰ Raid on media office in Tehran may be linked to sanctions (Iran International)
۰ Man sentenced to death for murders of Iranian director and his wife (BBC)
۰ Two Basij forces killed by gunfire in southeast Iran (IranWire)
Foreign policy + security
۰ Iran's foreign minister meets Hamas leader in Qatar (Iran International)
۰ Iran has 'so much to lose' in direct war with Israel and the United States (RFE/RL)
۰ At the funeral for Iran-backed militia commander killed in US drone strike in Iraq (NPR)
۰ US confronts dangers from 'not very good' Iran-backed militants (Reuters)
۰ Iran-backed hackers interrupt UAE TV streaming services with deepfake news (The Guardian)
۰ Analysts see limits to China, Iran, Russia collaboration with Taliban (VOA)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ US says it’s taken possession of a Boeing 747 that Iran sold to a Venezuelan firm (AP)
۰ The oil was from Iran. The insurance was from New York (Bloomberg)
۰ Two Iranian nationals charged with conspiring to provide sanctioned technology (Justice.gov)
۰ Hamburg bank suspected as ‘financial hub’ for Iranian terror (Politico)
۰ Iran exports oil, gas worth $30 billion 10 months despite sanctions: minister (Xinhua)
Sports
۰ 100-year-old diver performs dive at the 2024 World Championships (CNN)
Diaspora
۰ Amanpour relives transformative time in Iranian homeland (CNN)
۰ Why did an Iranian diaspora singer record a beloved Israeli song? (Haaretz)