Khamenei hiding, Evin death toll—and more
The Iranist for the week of July 3, 2025
This is a brief newsletter, arriving a day early due to the US holiday weekend. Full reporting will resume next week. In the meantime, I shared some reflections on the post-war public mood in Iran during a virtual panel at The Washington Institute.
THE هفت/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:
۱/1 Iran suspends cooperation with the IAEA
On June 29, CIA Director John Ratcliffe stated that US strikes had destroyed Iran’s only metal conversion facility, setting its nuclear program back by years (AP). Just two days earlier, on June 27, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged the strikes had caused “excessive and serious” damage (BBC).
On July 2, the Pentagon assessed that the strikes had delayed Iran’s nuclear program by up to two years (Wall Street Journal). Yet only days before, on June 30, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Tehran would be able to resume uranium enrichment “in a matter of months.” (CNN) These conflicting assessments stand in contrast to President Donald Trump’s claim that the program had been “obliterated.” The shifting narratives surrounding the strikes have raised ongoing questions about the extent of the damage and Washington’s actual objectives (ABC News).
Meanwhile, new satellite imagery taken on June 29 shows continued activity at the Fordow nuclear enrichment plant, a key facility that was targeted (CNN). The pictures collected by Maxar Technologies show “an excavator and several personnel are positioned immediately next to the northern shaft on the ridge above the underground complex. The crane appears to be operating at the entrance to the shaft/hole.”
۲/2 Judicary alleges 71+ killed in Israeli strike on Evin prison
Human Rights Activists in Iran has identified forty-seven of those killed so far (HRANA). Imprisoned dissident Sayeh Seydal, who survived the attack, said:
“It’s literally a slow death (referring to prison conditions). The bombing by the US and Israel didn’t kill us. Then the Islamic Republic brought us to a place that will practically kill us.”
Meanwhile, a group of political prisoners have accused Iranian officials of mismanagement and ignoring warnings about a potential strike (IranWire). Check out photos of the aftermath of the attack on Evin.
۳/3 Hossein and Hassan Ronaghi abducted by security forces, whereabouts unknown
Their father is threatening to self-immolate if there is no news about his sons.
۴/4 State funeral held for IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not been seen in public since the war began. A “Missing” poster spotted in Iran:
Meanwhile, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, a key advisor to the Khamenei, appeared on state television to discuss how he survived the Israeli strike on his home (New York Times). Watch the interview (with English subtitles).
۵/5 Trump suspends possible sanctions relief
According to a CNN exclusive report:
“The Trump administration has discussed possibly helping Iran access as much as $30 billion to build a civilian-energy-producing nuclear program, easing sanctions, and freeing up billions of dollars in restricted Iranian funds—all part of an intensifying attempt to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table…”
On June 27, President Donald Trump called the story “Fake News” in a social media post (TruthSocial).
On June 30, the Iranian foreign ministry called the US president’s shifting stance “psychological and media games.” (Reuters) On July 1, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told CBS News that he didn’t think nuclear negotiations would restart quickly, but added, “The doors of diplomacy will never slam shut.” On the same day, his deputy Majid Takht-Ravanchi said that Trump would have to rule out new strikes on Iran if it wants to restart talks (BBC).
۶/6 Afghans deported en masse due to spy hunt
More than 1,300 Iranian and Afghan activists, filmmakers, and journalists have signed an open letter condemning the deportations and demanding immediate policy changes (IranWire).
۷/7 French hostages handed bogus Israel spy charges
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human Rights
۰ Iran arrests bakers’ union leader, 10 others after strike (IranWire)
۰ Kurdish activist arrested by intelligence forces (IranWire)
۰ Film crew sentenced over film about female Singer (IranWire)
۰ Former political prisoner Arash Sadeghi briefly detained, beaten in park (IranWire)
۰ 140 Iran University alumni demand release of jailed former student activist (IranWire)
۰ Iran unleashes ‘wave of repression’ after Israel war: activists (Al-Monitor)
۰ Iran moves foreign prisoners after israeli strike on Evin prison (IranWire)
۰ Prisoners without water after transfer following Israeli Strike on Evin (IranWire)
Domestic Issues
۰ Life in Iran after the strikes: Executions, arrests, and paranoia (Wall Street Journal)
۰ How Israel inadvertently reawakened Iranian nationalism (Financial Times)
Foreign Policy + Security
۰ After war with Israel and US, Iran rests on a knife edge (New York Times)
۰ Israel suggests it could strike Iran again to counter new threats (New York Times)
۰ Sleeper cells and threat warnings: how the US-Iran conflict is spinning up fear (The Guardian)
۰ What senators are saying after being briefed on the US strikes on Iran (CNN)
۰ US Senate votes down resolution to restrict Trump from escalating Iran war (The Guardian)
۰ Supreme leader is facing his gravest challenge yet—and has few options left (CNN)
۰ Amid warnings of Iranian terrorism, a history of failed ‘c team’ plots (New York Times)
۰ Iran nearly succeeded in orchestrating assassination of Mike Pompeo in Europe in 2022, book reveals (Washington Post)
۰ Arrest on suspicion of engaging in intelligence activities (generalbundesanwalt.de)
۰ The Iranian threat already inside Britain (Telegraph)
۰ Iranian hackers ‘may still conduct malicious cyber activity,’ US agencies warn (ABC News)
Iran Deal + Sanctions
۰ Will the bombing stop Iran from going nuclear? (New York Times)
۰ Israel and US smashed nuclear site that grew after Trump quit 2015 accord (New York Times)
۰ Intercepted call of Iranian officials downplays damage of US attack (Washington Post)
۰ US strikes on nuclear sites set up “cat-and-mouse” hunt for missing uranium (Reuters)
۰ UK, France, Germany condemn threats against IAEA head after Iran newspaper calls for his arrest (Reuters)
۰ France warns snapback sanctions remain EU's key leverage in Iran talks (Iran International)
۰ Major Chinese ports keep Iranian oil flowing despite sanctions (Bloomberg)
Diaspora
۰ ICE targets Iranian family in Buffalo here legally (Investigative Post)