Israel attacks Iran, Jamshid Sharmahd executed—and more
The Iranist for the week of November 1, 2024
۱/1 Israel attacks Iran
On October 26, Israel retaliated directly against Iran—its first open attack on the country.
Operation Days of Repentance, as referred to by Israel, was in response to the October 1 attack by Iran, when it fired at least 180 ballistic missiles at the country, with at least two dozen making it through Israel’s air defenses. (The US identified around 200 missiles launched.)
Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said, “Israel now has broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran” after the operation concluded (Washington Post).
The White House was reportedly alerted of the attack just hours before (Axios). Three sources told Axios that Israel had also sent a message ahead of the retaliatory airstrikes to Tehran, warning them not to respond.
WHAT DID ISRAEL FIRE? According to an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) official, more than 100 fighter jets participated in the attack, which took place in three waves. Per Axios, “The first wave focused on Iran’s air defense system and the second and third waves focused on missile and drone bases and weapons’ productions sites.” Read how the Israeli pilots felt about the operation.
However, Iran denied Israeli jets entered Iranian airspace and that it instead used Iraqi airspace to fire drones and missiles (New York Times). Syrian airspace was also used as well.
It’s worth noting that some Israeli politicians wanted a more aggressive assault, one that would target the country’s nuclear facilities (Washington Post).
WHERE DID THEY LAND? An IDF official said, “The targets that were attacked expanded the IDF’s freedom operation over Iran’s skies, and damaged Iran’s military infrastructure, including the air defense systems and ballistic missiles capabilities.” (Axios)
Around twenty targets were reportedly hit in Tehran, Ilam, and Khuzestan provinces. However, according to various media reports, the attack extended to Alborz and Semnan provinces as well.
Here are the sites that reportedly were targeted:
Falagh missile manufacturing base, Tehran (New York Times)
Khojir military base, Tehran (BBC)
Parand military site, Tehran (New York Times)
Parchin military complex, Tehran (BBC)
Shahroud military base, Tehran (BBC)
Teico in Shamsabad Industrial City, Tehran (Associated Press)
Radar installation, Ilam (BBC/Washington Post)
Tange Bijar natural gas production site, Ilam (BBC/New York Times)
Abadan oil refinery, Khuzestan (unclear if caused by debris or misfiring by defense systems - BBC/New York Times)
Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex, Khuzestan (New York Times)
Economic port Bandar Imam Khomeini, Khuzestan (New York Times)
Radar installation, Khuzestan (Washington Post)
Shahid Ghadiri missile manufacturing base, Alborz (New York Times)
Shahroud Space Center, Semnan (satellite imagery/New York Times)
Abdol Fath missile manufacturing base, unknown (New York Times)
NUCLEAR FACILITIES NOT TARGETED The director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi noted on X that Iranian nuclear facilities weren’t targeted.
MIXERS HIT Sources said that Israel hit twelve planetary mixers used to produce solid fuel for its long-range ballistic missiles, hampering its ability to renew Iran’s stockpile in the future (Axios). The equipment is reportedly hard for Tehran to produce and must be purchased from China.
S-300s HIT Sources also said that Israel took out three of the country’s Russian-made S-300 missile defense systems (Fox News). Israel has now reportedly taken out all four systems—one in April’s attack. A senior Israeli official claimed that “The majority of Iran’s air defense was taken out.”
It’s worth noting that some Iranians have argued that had Russia given Tehran its S-400s, they wouldn’t have been as venerable to Israel. However, those more advanced systems have also been destroyed by Ukrainian forces (Wall Street Journal).
According to the Associated Press:
“There have been no videos or photos posted to social media of missile parts or damage in civilian neighborhoods following the recent attack—suggesting that the Israeli strikes were far more accurate than Iran’s ballistic missile barrages targeting Israel in April and October. Israel relied on aircraft-fired missiles during its attack.”
As the operation happened, flights continued to take off and land in Iran. It was only after the fact that airspace was suspended.
FIVE KILLED Four soldiers and one civilian were killed (BBC).
The Washington Institute’s Michael Singh noted two long-term consequences for Tehran:
“Direct strikes on Iran were previously seen as taboo in both the US and Israel, which feared they would trigger a war. No longer: while the bar will remain high, such strikes are now part of the policy toolkit… Iran’s defense against and reaction to the strikes will provide US planners [with] a trove of info should the US ever feel it necessary to mount a military strike on Iran’s nuclear complex.” (X)
HOW DID THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY REACT? Many countries condemned Israel or called for restraint (Al Jazeera). Some of the countries that specifically condemned Israel are Algeria, Bahrain, Indonesia, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Maldives, Mauritania, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (X).
It’s worth noting that Saudi Arabia and the UAE only condemned the “military targeting” of Iran and didn’t mention Israel by name (X).
WHAT HAS IRAN SAID SINCE? State media reported that the attack was “successfully intercepted and countered” and that “limited damage” was inflicted on “certain areas.” (NBC News) The operation has also been downplayed in Iranian state media, with IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency calling the report that Israel used more than one hundred jets an “absolute fabrication.” (X)
On October 26, the Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning the attack and noting it was a violation of international law and the United Nations Charter, adding that:
“As repeatedly emphasized by the competent authorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran, based on the inherent right of self-defense, as also reflected in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, the Islamic Republic of Iran considers itself entitled and obliged to defend against acts of external aggression.” (X)
On the same day, the Supreme National Security Council held an emergency meeting, where a briefing was held to assess the damage, and discussions were held on whether to respond (New York Times).
On October 27, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that the attack “should not be exaggerated nor downplayed” but didn’t elaborate on whether Tehran would retaliate (BBC). As Amwaj.Media pointed out, “he has seemingly delegated next steps to civilian and military leaders,” likely to refrain from taking the blame for any potential wrong decision. Read about how various Iranian factions are debating on how to respond to Israel.
Meanwhile, a day prior, Khamenei opened a new Hebrew-language account on social media platform X (Times of Israel). His first post read: “In the name of Allah the merciful and compassionate.” It was shut down twenty-four hours later.
On October 27, Iranian President Masoud Pezeskhian said that Iran would “give an appropriate response,” adding, “We are not seeking war, but we will defend the rights of our nation and our country.” (Washington Post)
On October 30, Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said that Iran would respond to Israel and that one of their defense systems was replaced the next day (X). On October 31, the New York Times honed in on two top Iranian officials saying Tehran would retaliate.
Many analysts believe that despite the rhetoric, Iran will not respond given that its proxies, especially Hezbollah, are severely weakened and its defense systems were taken out in the capital and around energy facilities, leaving Tehran very vulnerable. However, as I noted in a CNN interview, with the death toll at five, it’s increasingly likely that Tehran will have to respond in some shape or form—as it did in April when IRGC commanders were killed at the embassy compound in Syria. Nevertheless, as the New York Times argues, “Iran’s leaders face a gamble: A military response meant to deter Israeli attacks could backfire, inviting even more destructive attacks that could harm its economy and infrastructure.”
According to two Israeli sources, Israeli intelligence suggests that Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory right before the US presidential election on November 5 (Axios).
Separately, Iran has proposed increasing its defense budget by 200 percent. Lawmakers are debating the budget and will finalize it in March 2025 (Al Jazeera).
HOW DID ORDINARY IRANIANS REACT? Pro-regime Iranians were quick to poke fun at the Israeli attack by drawing comparisons to the optics of Tehran’s response versus Israel’s (X). One pro-regime Iranian account posted a video of Iranians on their rooftop saying, “Where is it? Nothing is happening,” as if to troll the Israeli response (X). Many jokes centered around comparing how Iranians react to an attack versus Israelis, with one viral post saying: “When there are sounds of explosions, we go on the rooftop; Israelis take shelter! There's a difference between us.” (X)
Based on the comments online, anti-regime Iranians who support Israel taking on the Islamic Republic were disappointed with the attack, especially since Israeli officials hyped up Israel’s response in the lead-up to the strikes (X).
Israel’s operation was the first time a country directly attacked Iran on this scale since Iraq in the 1980s. For Iranians who were alive during the bloody Iran-Iraq war and could hear or see the air defense responding, it evoked memories of that time. One Iranian on X commented, “We used to be upset that we don’t have the Iron Dome, but now we’ve realized that we don’t even have [an air raid] siren.” (X) Some expressed a sigh of relief, as evident by a post of an Iranian girl dancing (X). Check out this interesting video of Tehran’s skyline accidentally captured by an Instagram influencer during the attack.
A summary of Iranian sentiments:
“People are experiencing different emotions: Some are worried, some indifferent and some are even happy, because they believe that Israel attacks will humble the regime a bit.” (New York Times)
۲/2 Iran-Russian defense treaty to be signed soon
۳/3 Jamshid Sharmahd executed
On October 28, Iran executed a longtime US national and German-Iranian political dissident, according to the Judiciary (The Guardian). Jamshid Sharmahd, 69, was kidnapped from the United Arab Emirates and taken to Iran in 2020. He was put on trial on allegations of terrorism due to his affiliation with an Iranian opposition group that Tehran accused of being behind a 2008 bombing and was subsequently sentenced to death. Sharmahd and his family consistently denied the allegations.
Sharmahd, who was in solitary confinement during his imprisonment, suffered from Parkinson’s disease and was repeatedly tortured. The execution timing was completely unexpected, but the clerical establishment knows it is facing domestic dissent and is desperately turning that dissent to external threats. As the Center for Human Rights in Iran noted: “This state-sanctioned killing targeted a dissident who was unjustly detained, tortured, and deprived of his due process and fair trial rights.”
The European Union and the United States condemned the unjust execution (X/X)
On October 29, Germany recalled its ambassador to Iran and summoned the Iranian charge d’affaires to voice Berlin’s protest against the execution (Reuters). On October 31, Germany closed three Iranian consulates in Frankfurt, Hamburg, and Munich (New York Times).
The German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said:
“We have repeatedly made it unmistakably clear to Tehran that the execution of a German national will have serious consequences, The fact that the assassination has now taken place in light of the latest developments in the Middle East shows that a dictatorial regime of injustice like that of the mullahs does not act following normal diplomatic logic.” (New York Times)
Germany has also called on German citizens in Iran to leave the country and warned others against traveling there (DW).
The Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the closures were “a sanction against Iranians residing in that country—most of whom possess German citizenship as well.” (X)
Gazelle Sharmahd, who has long advocated for his father’s release, called on the United States and Germany to provide proof of her father’s execution and, if the news is true, to repatriate his body (X). She also criticized both governments for “abandoning” her father by not including him in past hostage negotiations.
۴/4 Nobel Laurate hospitalized, family says regime is trying to ‘eliminate’ her
۵/5 Dissident rapper Toomaj Salehi was arrested two years ago
۶/6 Universities intensify hijab enforcement and push for population growth policies
This week at Tehran University, there were protests in response to gender segregation, commercialization of student spaces, and efforts to depoliticize the university (X). Chants of “Women, Life, Freedom” and “Anyone who turns a blind eye is complicit in this repression” were heard in the footage.
۷/7 How a Harris or Trump victory could impact Iran, according to Tehran analysts
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Baha’i musician sentenced to 11 years (IranWire)
۰ Iran executes two more people amid surge in death sentences (IranWire)
۰ Iran executes finger amputation sentences on two brothers convicted of theft (IranWire)
۰ 13-year-old Baluch child detained by security forces in Zahedan (IranWire)
۰ Court sentences sister of protest victim to one year in prison (IranWire)
۰ US says it is looking into case of American jailed in Iran (VOA)
۰ Judiciary targets Instagram page administrator for ‘promoting dance’ (IranWire)
۰ Iran: One of the most dangerous places in the world for journalists (CHRI)
Domestic issues
۰ Iran lifts its ban on imports of new iPhone models in place since last year (AP)
۰ Rising poverty in Iran puts women's health at risk (IranWire)
۰ Iranian border guards set injured teen fuel carriers’ vehicle on fire (IranWire)
Foreign policy + security
۰ Iran ‘open’ to closer western ties, Khamenei adviser suggests (Financial Times)
۰Alleged spy says he ‘sabotaged operation’ to travel to Iran (BBC)
۰ As North Korea, Iran, and China support Russia’s war, is a ‘new axis’ emerging? (CNN)
۰ Why many in Iran want Donald Trump to win the US election (DW)
۰ The Taliban say blasts and gunfire in Iran targeted and killed at least 2 Afghans earlier this month (AP)
۰ Pakistan hires 2 law firms to fight Iran's pipeline delay claim (VOA)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ US businessman convicted of attempting to export mining equipment to Iran (RFE/RL)
۰ Iran’s aviation woes compounded by latest EU sanctions (Al-Monitor)