NOTE: Since I missed last week’s updates, I mixed some in this week
۱/1 When will Israel respond?
Earlier this month, Iran retaliated directly against Israel, again. According to Israel Defense Forces (IDF), at least 180 ballistic missiles were fired at Israel directly from Iran, and at least two dozen made it through the country’s air defenses. The US identified around 200 missiles launched.
HOW WILL ISRAEL RESPOND? Last week, the United States sent one of its seven THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile systems and a hundred US troops to Israel (Washington Post). The THAAD system shoots down incoming short-, medium-, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
Meanwhile, US reports emerged that the Israeli government had assured the Joe Biden administration that Israel would avoid striking oil facilities and the country’s nuclear sites, according to two anonymous officials (New York Times). As the Washington Post points out:
“An Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities could send energy prices soaring... while an attack on the country’s nuclear program could erase any remaining red lines governing Israel’s conflict with Tehran, triggering further escalation and risking a more direct US military role.”
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu allegedly told Biden on a call earlier this month that Israel would target military infrastructure in Iran (Washington Post). Anonymous US officials told the Wall Street Journal that “Israel has suggested it would aim for military or intelligence targets… but has stopped short of providing the US a list of specific targets.” On October 15, a statement was issued by the Israeli Prime Minister’s office: “We listen to the opinions of the United States but we will make our final decisions based on our national interest”—an apparent response to comments reported in the media (BBC). US officials believe the attack will happen before the US presidential election on November 5 (CNN).
On October 17, Russia reportedly told Israel not to consider attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities (Reuters).
Separately, a network of Israeli citizens were arrested after spying for Iran (The Guardian).
WHAT IS IRAN DOING? Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that its indirect negotiations with the United States via Oman were being halted “due to the special circumstances in the region… We do not see any ground for the talks until we can pass the current crisis.” (AP) The comments came as the foreign minister visited Muscat as part of a diplomatic blitz. On October 16, Araghchi warned the United Nations Secretary-General that Tehran would give a “decisive and regretful” response if Israel attacked Iran (Times of Israel).
Last week, Araghchi traveled much of the Middle East—Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Oman, Jordan, Egypt, and Turkey—to discuss regional developments and tensions, where he has been calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and a truce in Lebanon (Al-Monitor). The visit to Egypt was especially noteworthy given that Tehran and Cairo have not had diplomatic ties since 1980 (AP). FM Araghchi didn't just meet with his Egyptian counterpart; he met with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who ousted the Muslim Brotherhood in a popular coup d’etat in 2013 (IranWire). According to the New York Times, Iran is “trying to strengthen alliances with regional Arab countries—but also warning them that any assistance to Israel for an attack would make them a legitimate target.” Arab states, especially ones in the Persian Gulf, want to stay on the sidelines, with some—such as Kuwait—saying they would not offer their airspace to Israel.
Iranian officials have told the New York Times:
“…if Israel inflicted major harm, the responses under consideration included a barrage of up to 1,000 ballistic missiles; escalated attacks by Iranian proxy militant groups in the region; and disrupting the flow of global energy supplies and shipping moving through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.”
Read about the sites in Iran that Israel could strike (Washington Post)
On October 21, the Iranian Mission to the United Nations said in a letter to the UN Security Council that President Biden signaled “tacit approval and explicit support for Israel's unlawful military aggression against Iran. The United States will bear full responsibility for its role in instigating, inciting and enabling any acts of aggression by Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran ... as well as for the catastrophic consequences on regional and international peace and security.” (Reuters)
THE LEAK On October 17, a leak of highly classified documents of Israel’s plans to retaliate against Iran was posted on Telegram channel Middle East Spectator, a pro-Resistance Axis account. The documents, dated October 15 and 16, were marked top secret for the US and its Five Eyes intelligence partners (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom). The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), which interprets satellite imagery, and the National Security Agency prepared the documents titled, “Israel: Air force continues preparations for strike on Iran and conducts a second large-force employment exercise,” and “Israel: Defense forces continue key munitions preparations and covert UAV activity almost certainly for a strike on Iran.” As CNN noted, “One of the documents also suggests something that Israel has always declined to confirm publicly: that the country has nuclear weapons.” The leaked documents also demonstrate how US intelligence closely monitors Israel’s preparations for an attack. Check out the documents.
On October 19, the Telegram channel issued a statement:
“[We have] no connection to the original source, which we assume to be a whistleblower within the US Department of Defense. As far as we are aware, the documents first appeared in a private Telegram group with just over 7000 members, where the leaker was likely present. Somehow, the documents found their way out of the group; it was at this moment that Middle East Spectator took notice of the documents through an anonymous DM. Such DMs were sent to various other people and news outlets.” (Telegram)
On October 21, the White House National Security Council spokesman said that US President Joe Biden was “deeply concerned” about the leak (White House). The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is leading the investigation and “investigators are working off the theory that the breach most likely came from a government insider and not from a cyber intrusion.” (CNN) The leaked documents were reportedly widely accessible, but at least one appears to be scanned from a printed briefing book. Federal agencies track when employees print classified documents, making the pool of people relatively small. Sky News Arabia alleged that a US defense official working in the Special Operations/Low-Intensity Conflict office was the suspect, but that was quickly debunked (X).
۲/2 Iran attends BRICS summit in Russia, meets Putin a second time
Last week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met his Russian counterpart at an international forum in Turkmenistan (AP).
Meanwhile, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt are planning to conduct joint military exercises in the Red Sea, according to Tehran (AFP/Al-Monitor). Iran recently hosted military exercises with Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other countries in the Sea of Oman, known as IMEX 2024 (Reuters/TRT World).
۳/3 Esmail Qaani is found
Earlier this month, reports emerged that IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani had not been heard from. Some reports say he may have been injured or killed during the Israeli strike on Hashem Safieddine, the assumed replacement as leader of Hezbollah, that was killed on October 4. Middle East Eye had reported that Qaani and his team were under lockdown and being questioned for major security breaches. Meanwhile, Sky News Arabia alleged that Qaani suffered a heart attack during his interrogation and that his office manager is under suspicion of having ties to Israel. The speculation prompted online jokes and rumors about Qaani being a possible Mossad agent. However, speculation ended on October 14, when he appeared in public for the first time at Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport, where he was seen mourning at a ceremony commemorating IRGC deputy commander Abbas Nilforoushan, who had died in the Israeli airstrike alongside Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon (X).
There has been much criticism of the Iranian intelligence apparatus in recent months. Iran-based analyst Mahdi Kharratyan criticized the Iranian intelligence apparatus, noting efforts focused on monitoring dissidents rather than countering Israel (Iran International). He said, “Either drop the ‘Death to Israel’ slogan or stop making it a hundredth priority in intel departments.” Kharratyan also noted that there wasn't even an “Israel desk” at the Iranian foreign ministry, something even neighboring Pakistan has.
۴/4 EU sanctions three Iranian airliners, including Iran Air
The director of the Association of Iranian Airlines said Iran Air will no longer be flying to Europe (Iran International).
۵/5 Trump not interested in regime change
On October 17, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump told PBD Podcast: “I would like to see Iran be very successful, the only thing is they can’t have a nuclear weapon.” (X)
On the topic of regime change, Trump said: “We can’t get totally involved in all that. We can’t [even] run ourselves.”Listen to the full interview.
۶/6 Dual US-Iranian citizen arrested in Iran
۷/7 US charges IRGC official in assassination plot of Masih Alinejad
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Authorities execute Baluch prisoner despite suicide attempt (IranWire)
۰ Woman faces death penalty over son’s crime (IranWire)
۰ Young man arrested as a child scheduled to be executed within days (Amnesty International)
۰ Authorities arrest mother of teen killed in 2022 protests (IranWire)
۰ Iran sentences 10 Baha’i women to 90 years in prison (IranWire)
۰ Baha’is under siege in Iran: Persecution amidst regional tensions (IranWire)
۰ Journalists summoned to begin prison sentences (IranWire)
۰ Protest singer Saman Yasin released on medical furlough (IranWire)
۰ Photojournalist recounts state violence during Woman, Life, Freedom protests (CHRI)
۰ Using reproductive healthcare as a tool of political repression (CHRI)
Domestic issues
۰ Pezeshkian targets VPNs instead of lifting internet filtering in Iran (IranWire)
۰ Iranian president faces protests at Tehran University, avoids key issues (Iran International)
۰ Crackdown on foreign workers leaves many struggling in Iran (IranWire)
۰ At least one killed in fire at refinery in Khuzestan province, state media says (Reuters)
۰ Who is behind the sale of lethal bootleg alcohol in Iran? (Iran International)
۰ Misery Index highlights economic hardship in key provinces (Iran International)
Foreign policy + security
۰ Iranian hackers have probed US election websites for vulnerabilities, Microsoft says (CNN)
۰ ‘I like Trump’: Iranian in Tehran speaks out on 2024 choice for US president (CNN)
۰ Taliban minister endorses return of Afghan migrants from Iran (Al-Monitor)
۰ Iran protests EU support for UAE over disputed islands (AFP)
۰ Lebanon issues rare rebuke to Iran over ‘interference’ (Reuters)
۰ Two Israelis arrested for sabotage, plotting assassination for Iran (Times of Israel)
۰ Supreme leader says Hamas leader’s death will not halt ‘Axis of Resistance’ (Reuters)
۰ Tehran mural threatens ‘no release’ for Israeli hostages in Gaza (IranWire)
۰ China and Iran champion close ties, but Beijing’s influence is limited (Washington Post)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ US expands sanctions to Iran’s ‘ghost fleet’ of oil tankers (Reuters)
۰ US puts curbs on firms for supporting Iran, Pakistan weapons programs (AFP)
۰ Iran condemns ‘illegal, unjustified’ US sanctions on oil industry (AFP)
۰ Seven individuals and seven entities sanctioned in response to Iran’s missile transfer to Russia (Europa.eu)
۰ Turkey’s Halkbank must face US prosecution over Iran sanctions charges (Wall Street Journal)
۰ Inside the secret oil trade that funds Iran’s wars (Economist)