Iran talks 'imminent' retaliation, Arvand Cloud removed from EU sanctions list—and more
Iran talks 'imminent' retaliation, Arvand Cloud removed from EU sanctions list—and more
The Iranist for the week of April 11, 2024
۱/1 Iran talks big game about retaliation against Israel
Last week, an Israeli airstrike hit a four-story building in the Iranian embassy grounds in Damascus, killing three senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) foreign arm, the Quds Force, and four other officers. Among those killed were IRGC Quds Force commander for Lebanon and Syria, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi—said to be the most high-profile Iranian assassinated since Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020—and his deputy, Brigadier General Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi.
What is Israel doing? Israel has been bracing for Iranian retaliation after threats of revenge were by high-ranking Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, President Ebrahim Raisi, and many others.
Since April 3, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) bolstered its air defenses and called up reservists, bracing for a potential Iranian response.
Some other precautions Israel is taking:
“Israel has withdrawn some of its ambassadors and evacuated its embassies in multiple locations, and some ambassadors have been asked not to appear at public events… several Israeli municipalities near Tel Aviv put out announcements to calm residents and refresh guidance for emergency situations… The Israeli military said the GPS scrambling—which can be used to confuse targeting systems for weapons—was part of an effort to protect the country.” (Wall Street Journal)
On April 4, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said:
“Iran has been acting against us for years—directly and via proxies. And, therefore, Israel acts against Iran and its proxies—defensively and offensively… We will know how to defend ourselves, and we will act according to the simple principle: that those who harm us or plan to harm us, we will harm.” (Reuters)
On April 10, Khamenei, speaking on Eid al-Fitr, the Islamic holiday that marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan, renewed his threats, saying:
"When they attack the consulate, it is as if they have attacked our soil. The evil regime made a mistake and must be punished and it shall be.” (Reuters)
Responding to his comments, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz wrote in Persian on X (formerly Twitter):
“If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will react and attack in Iran.”
(NOTE: Khamenei had posted on X in Hebrew on April 3)
On the same day, US President Joe Biden said:
“…our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad. Let me say it again: ironclad. We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security. (White House)
Jerusalem Day. On April 6, Iran held its annual Quds (Jerusalem) Day protests to show solidarity with Palestinians (Al-Monitor). The yearly rallies have been held on the last Friday of Ramadan since the 1979 revolution. Interestingly, the day coincided with the funeral procession of the seven assassinated IRGC members (AP). At the protests, the usual chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” were heard alongside anti-Israel and anti-US banners.
Speaking at Tehran University ahead of weekly Friday prayers, IRGC Chief General Hossein Salami said:
“Our brave men will punish the Zionist regime… No enemy act against our holy system will go unanswered… The collapse of (the Zionist regime) is very possible and close with God’s grace.” (AP)
On April 7, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian began what appears to be an unannounced regional tour (Tehran Times). He started the first leg of his tour in Oman, where he discussed the ongoing Gaza war with his Omani counterpart and met with a spokesperson for Yemen’s Houthi rebels (AFP). On April 8, Amir-Abdollahian visited Syria to inaugurate the new site for consular services at the embassy compound in Damascus (Reuters). The Iranian FM met with his Syrian counterpart and discussed bilateral ties and Gaza. The duo attended the opening of the new consular building, which once was the headquarters of an Iranian-Syrian automobile venture. At the end of his trip, Amir-Abdollahian met with President Bashar al-Assad (AP).
On April 10, the Iranian FM spoke to his counterparts in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to wish them a happy Eid al-Fitr but also, in some instances, to discuss the ongoing Gaza war.
An attack appears to be “imminent.” On April 5, CBS News reported that US intelligence picked up that Iran is planning a retaliatory attack at the end of Ramadan (April 10) that would include a swarm of drones and cruise missiles. It's unclear if the retaliation would be by Tehran directly or via its proxies in Iraq or Syria. Per the report, a “proportional response” is said to be an Israeli diplomatic facility.
On April 10, the last day of Ramadan, Bloomberg published a piece quoting anonymous sources that a potential assault involving high-precision missiles or drone strikes by Iran or its proxies against Israeli government and military targets is imminent. Separately, an Iranian diplomatic source told Amwaj.media that the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights is a possible target. Regardless, many analysts speculate that Iran will not respond directly for fear of it leading to an all-out war with Israel.
Spreading false rumors. After the Bloomberg report, many analysts and the general public closely watched the space for possible retaliation against Israel, while state-affiliated accounts on X and Telegram went into overdrive, sharing content implying an imminent strike. At the same time, news that Germany’s flagship airline, Lufthansa, had suspended its flights to Iran was co-opted by malicious actors—including IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency—to spread misinformation and disinformation about the closure of Iranian airspace (Reuters).
What Iranian airspace actually looked like:
What are some possible scenarios? According to the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative Director Jonathan Panikoff, there are four ways Iran may respond:
Iran’s response is asymmetric and not in the region.
Iran leverages its partners or proxies, such as Hezbollah, to undertake an attack or strike targets inside Israel.
Iran leverages its Shia proxies in Iraq or Syria to strike US targets.
Iran militarily attacks the Israeli homeland and/or kills senior Israeli officials.
۲/2 Iran executed 853 people in 2023—the highest in eight years
۳/3 Environmentalists freed after years of imprisonment
On April 9, four environmentalists imprisoned on allegations of espionage were pardoned (New York Times). The pardon was part of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s amnesty of more than 2,000 prisoners to commemorate the end of Ramadan. Niloufar Bayani, Taher Ghadirain, Houman Jowkar, and Sepideh Kashani worked for the Persian Wildlife Heritage Foundation (PWHF), a conservationist organization that monitors and saves endangered species, such as the Asiatic cheetah.
A total of nine conservationists—including Kavous Seyed Emami, Amir Hossein Khaleghi, Abdolreza Kohpayeh, Sam Rajabi, and Morad Tahbaz—from the PWHF were arrested and charged in early 2018 on allegations of “espionage” and "collaboration with hostile countries" and were handed prison sentences ranging from four to ten years on an array of charges. Co-founder of PWHF, environmentalist and university professor Seyed Emami—who held Iranian and Canadian citizenship—died under suspicious circumstances in prison after being interrogated in February 2018. Authorities claim he committed suicide, an allegation rejected by his family and many Iranians.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intelligence arm alleged the PWHF’s camera traps used to monitor the Asiatic cheetah were used to take photos of Iranian military installations. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has described the group of environmentalists as “internationally recognized experts in the field of nature conservation, who have all dedicated their lives to the conservation of wildlife in Iran.”
Over the years, the imprisoned conservationists have spoken of mistreatment and torture while in prison (RFE/RL). Khaleghi, Kohpayeh, and Rajabi were released after completing their prison terms, while Tahbaz—who holds British, Iranian, and American citizenships—was freed as part of a prisoner swap with the United States in September 2023 (IranWire).
The UNEP welcomed the news of the release of the four conservationists, noting:
Over the past six years, we at UNEP have consistently called for the release of… the… conservationists. As our natural world faces grave threats and the world reels from the impact of climate change, nature and biodiversity loss, desertification and dust storms, and pollution and waste, environmental conservationists are critical allies in protecting the human right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment. They are essential to building a sustainable world for current and future generations.
۴/4 Iranian censoring tech firm Arvan Cloud removed from EU sanctions list
۵/5 Healthcare worker commits suicide—the second incident in weeks
Read: Overworked and underpaid, many Iranian doctors migrate—and some even take their lives (RFE/RL)
۶/6 University threatens graduates with prosecution after viral celebratory dance video
Watch the video (via X):
۷/7 Iran is smuggling arms to the West Bank to foment unrest against Israel
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Execution of inmate at Khorramabad prison (HRANA)
۰ Jailed activist sentenced to 74 lashes for alleged absence from prison (IranWire)
۰ Married woman killed by her brothers in Ahvaz (IranWire)
۰ Political prisoner Amir-Nasr Azadani on hunger strike (HRANA)
۰ Political prisoner accused of supporting Israel (IranWire)
۰ Despite being jailed, activist sentenced for failing to report to prison (RFE/RL)
۰ University Student Fahimeh Soltani summoned and arrested by intelligence ministry (HRANA)
۰ University students rally behind imprisoned student activists (IranWire)
۰ Court declines to release father of executed protester (IranWire)
۰ Iran summons 12 Baha'i citizens to revolutionary court (IranWire)
۰ Iran blocks ‘Blind Date’ as part of social media crackdown (RFE/RL)
Domestic affairs
۰ Iran experiences country-wide internet disruption, watchdog group says (Jerusalem Post)
Foreign policy + security
۰ US sends Ukraine seized Iranian-made weapons (Washington Post)
۰ Tehran cooked up a conspiracy theory blaming Israel for US TikTok ban (Atlantic Council)
۰ Iran says 17-hour battle with separatists leaves 28 dead in 2 cities (New York Times)
۰ Iran naval chief calls Israeli presence in UAE 'threat,' seeks Islamic army coalition (Al-Monitor)
۰ Iran says ISIL members planning Eid al-Fitr ‘suicide attack’ arrested (Al Jazeera)
۰ Iran's foreign minister visits Oman on regional tour (Reuters)
۰ Turkmen pop star's fate unknown after reported drug arrest in Iran (RFE/RL)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ Nuclear deal in tatters, Iran edges close to weapons capability (Washington Post)
۰ US Treasury seeks more sanctions powers against crypto exchanges (Bloomberg)
۰ US issues fresh Iran-related sanctions targeting vessel owner (Reuters)
۰ Russia, Iran sanctions bill hits roadblock in US House (Reuters)
۰ Chinese firms helping military get AI chips added to US export blacklist (Reuters)