NOTE: Apologies for not sending last week’s newsletter! I had to deal with a health issue.
۱/1 Operation True Promise II
On October 1, Iran retaliated directly against Israel, again. It was the second attack on Israel and the third time since the beginning of the year that Iran had retaliated against a nuclear-armed state (the other being Pakistan).
Operation True Promise II, as referred to by Tehran, was in response to the killings of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran in July, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) deputy commander Abbas Nilforoushan in Lebanon in September (BBC).
WHAT DID IRAN FIRE? According to Israel Defense Forces (IDF), at least 180 ballistic missiles were fired at Israel directly from Iran, and at least two dozen made it through the country’s air defenses (New York Times). The US identified around 200 missiles launched.
State media said long-range Ghadr and Emad missiles were used, which were also used in Aprirl. Additionally, it claimed the “hypersonic” Fattah missiles had been fired—the country’s most advanced missiles that hadn’t been used before. However, experts say that the missiles don’t meet the criteria as hypersonic (Washington Post).
The IDF said the majority of missiles were “intercepted by Israel and a defensive coalition led by the United States.” (BBC) The US Department of Defense confirmed it helped shoot down the barrage.
WHERE DID THEY LAND? While US and Israeli officials have called the attack “ineffective,” some had penetrated Israel and landed near their presumed targets. A missile landed just 1,500 feet from Israeli intelligence agency Mossad’s headquarters in Tel Aviv (X). As with the attack in April, Nevatim Airbase was also a target, with more than thirty-two missile impact points near the base that houses F-25 fighter jets, according to research by Middlebury Institute of International Studies (NPR). In other words, 16 percent or more of the missiles hit their target (Washington Post). Iranian missiles also struck Tel Nof Airbase in central Israel. This suggests that more missiles penetrated Israel than the April attack.
To intercept Iran's ballistic missiles, Israel uses its Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 missile defense systems. However, Jeffery Lewis a nuclear nonproliferation expert, believes that “Israel's stocks of Arrow-2 and -3 interceptors are either depleted from April or are being saved for more sensitive targets.” (X)
A Palestinian man in the occupied West Bank was killed by falling missile debris (BBC).
WHAT HAS IRAN SAID SINCE? Like April, the Iranian Mission to the United Nations in New York put out a statement concluding the retaliation:
“Iran’s legal, rational, and legitimate response to the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime—which involved targeting Iranian nationals and interests and infringing upon the national sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran—has been duly carried out. Should the Zionist regime dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue. Regional states and the Zionists’ supporters are advised to part ways with the regime.” (X)
On October 4, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei led Friday prayer for the first time since 2020 in the aftermath of IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani’s assassination (New York Times). Donning a keffiyeh and with a rifle in hand, he praised the October 7 terrorist attack on southern Israel as a “logical, just and internationally legal action.” He also said, “The resistance in the region will not back down even with the killing of its leaders. The operations were… in return for the heinous crimes committed by this bloodthirsty criminal entity.”
Khamenei gave half of the speech in Arabic as he addressed his comments to Arab nations. He urged nations from “Afghanistan to Yemen and from Iran to Gaza and Yemen” to be ready to take action against Israel (AP). The fact that he appeared in public was seen as a sign of defiance and bravery from his supporters, given the assassination of Nasrallah.
Since the retaliation, the Iranian foreign minister has visited Lebanon, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia (read no. 2) to support a ceasefire in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip (New York Times).
HOW DID THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY REACT? On October 2, the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, “This deadly cycle of tit-for-tat violence must stop. Time is running out.” (Reuters) On the same day, A reporter asked US President Joe Biden if he would support an Israeli decision to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, to which he replied, “The answer is no.” (New York Times) Separately, on October 4, Biden said, “The Israelis have not concluded what they are going to do… If I were in their shoes, I would be thinking about other alternatives than striking Iranian oil fields.” (Axios)
The US president said he had consulted with G7 (Group of Seven) countries, all of which agree that Israel “has the right to respond, but they should respond proportionally.” (BBC) In their official statement, the G7 said:
“We… express deep concern over the deteriorating situation in the Middle East and condemn in the strongest terms Iran’s direct military attack against Israel, which constitutes a serious threat to regional stability. We unequivocally reiterate our commitment to the security of Israel… A dangerous cycle of attacks and retaliation risks fueling uncontrollable escalation in the Middle East, which is in no one’s interest. Therefore, we call on all regional players to act responsibly and with restraint. We encourage all parties to engage constructively to de-escalate the current tensions. International humanitarian law must be respected...” (White House)
There has also been support for Israel from its allies, including Australia, France, Japan, and the United Kingdom (BBC).
HOW DID ORDINARY IRANIANS REACT? Some Iranians supported the actions of the Islamic Republic, seeing it as the regime’s strength against Israel, which they perceive as the aggressor (BBC). Nevertheless, many Iranians—millennials and older—who have lived through the bloody Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s are worried about the prospect of war with Israel (RFE/RL).
Shayan, a 28-year-old artist, said:
“Some people are in denial, but the war is at our doorstep. I immediately Googled for shelters in Tehran after the missile attack was announced, but found none. We’re on our own. The authorities don’t even bother to inform or reassure the public.” (Iran International)
Gen Zers appear “unfazed” because they weren’t alive then to have experienced the “war of cities.” There are reports of Iranians stocking up on food and medicine as well as long lines at the gas station following Iran’s attack (RFE/RL).
Some of the comments made by anti-regime Iranians are that targeting oil facilities is targeting the Iranian people’s wealth, not the Islamic Republic. However, anti-regime Iranians—including the families of those killed or victims of the Islamic Republic’s repression—have also been highlighting the atrocities committed by the Islamic Republic using the viral hashtag “Yes, war is very scary” (جنگ__خیلی_ترسناکه#). In other words, yes, war is scary, but the regime is already at war with the people.
For some, the regime must be ousted by any means necessary—including war. However, not all Iranians feel that way. A video is making rounds on WhatsApp of a former conscript criticizing those who are happy about a war because they want the Islamic Republic gone (X). The conscript talks about being maimed by a mine left from the Iran-Iraq war and why war is bad.
Nasrin, a 46-year-old Instagram influencer, said:
“We all hate the Islamic Republic, but we also love Iran; we don’t want to see it ruined. Those here who cheer for an Israeli attack are either delusional or have no recollection of war like I and many in my generation do.”(Iran International)
Human rights defender Atena Daemi wrote on X:
“…We want freedom, but this freedom will only be achieved when it is realized from the hearts of the Iranian people and without the interference of foreign forces, not on the ruins caused by war.” (X)
Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi marked the one anniversary of receiving her award by saying:
“Today, the dark shadow of war once again hangs over our beloved country. I hate war. All those responsible for war are not only condemned by the people of the lands and times they devastate, but they are also forever disgraced and ostracised in the annals of human history.” (The Guardian)
Meanwhile, the Iranian rial has dropped by more than 5 percent in the past two weeks (Iran International).
HOW WILL ISRAEL RESPOND? Israel has said it will respond, but the timing and plans are unclear (AP). Like April, many Western leaders have called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to show restraint. For more than a decade, Netanyahu has wanted to target Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Some options Israel might consider include cyberattacks, assassinations, airstrikes on IRGC strongholds in the region, military bases, and, most concerning, an attack on oil and nuclear facilities in Iran (New York Times). Tehran has warned that any strike on Iranian interests would be reciprocated in kind. Meanwhile, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are calling on Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iranian oil facilities because they worry their oil sites could come under fire from Iran’s proxies (Reuters).
On September 30, Netanyahu addressed the Iranian people. This line is what caught everyone’s attention:
"When Iran is finally freed—and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think—everything will be different.” (X)
This isn’t the first time the Israeli prime minister addressed the Iranian people in a video. Many, myself included, interpreted the video as an ominous warning of what was to come.
Separately, on October 7, former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi delivered a “message to the friends of the Iranian people across the Middle East” on the anniversary of the terrorist attack on southern Israel (X).
On October 8, reports emerged that Israel still hadn’t informed the United States on how it would respond to Iran (NBC News). On October 9, President Biden and his Israeli counterpart spoke after two months. Biden condemned the October 1 retaliation but, as the New York Times reported, “made no reference to discussions on how to respond—which was the purpose of the call.” Interestingly, right around the time of the conversation, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, “Our strike will be lethal, precise and above all, surprising. They won’t understand what happened and how. They will see the results. Whoever strikes us will be harmed and pay a price.” (AP)
On October 10, Israel’s security cabinet is set to discuss its response to Iran (New York Times). Read about the divide between Netanyahu and his defense minister and how it complicates the Israeli response.
Some believe Israel could potentially attack on Yom Kippur (October 11), given the symbolism.
۲/2 Iran warns of nuclear doctrine change if Israel targets facilities
۳/3 MBS hosts Iranian foreign minister amidst tensions
۴/4 Harris calls Iran ‘greatest adversary’ of the US
۵/5 Where is Esmail Qaani?
Reports have emerged that IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani has not been heard from in the past couple of weeks. Some reports say he may have been injured or killed during the Israeli strike on Hashem Safieddine, the assumed replacement as leader of Hezbollah (Israel believes he was killed during the October 4 attack). Sources told Iran International that his family doesn’t even know where he is. Some jokes have emerged in the process, with some hoping the news of his death is true (X/X).
On October 6, Reuters published a report citing two Iranian security officials who claimed that Qaani “has not been heard from since strikes” on Beirut’s southern suburbs, known as the Dahiyeh (Reuters). On October 7, IRGC deputy commander Iraj Masjedi said Qaani is “in good health and is carrying out his activities. Some ask us to issue a statement... there is no need for this.” (Reuters)
Separately, according to Ebrahim Jabari, an advisor to the IRGC’s commander-in-chief, Qaani will receive a medal from the Supreme Leader in the coming days (IranWire).
On October 10, Middle East Eye reported that Qaani and his team are under lockdown and are being questioned for major security breaches, according to ten sources. After Nasrallah’s assassination, Qaani reportedly arrived in Lebanon accompanied by several IRGC commanders and other figures “to assess the situation on the ground.” The Quds Force commander allegedly was supposed to be meeting with Safieddine but backed out just before. Sky News Arabia reported that Qaani suffered a heart attack during his interrogation and that his office manager is under suspicion of having ties to Israel (Ynet).
If these reports are to be believed, there appears to be a mole on Qaani’s team, and Tehran is trying to find out who it is.
۶/6 At least 400 executed since the beginning of the year
۷/7 A bipartisan Iran strategy for the next US administration
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Iran executes 21-year-old convicted of crime committed as minor (IranWire)
۰ Political prisoner in critical condition after month-long hunger strike (IranWire)
۰ Medical student jailed for activism (IranWire)
۰ Journalist sentenced for Instagram posts (IranWire)
Domestic issues
۰ Businesses now required to link CCTV to police for hijab enforcement (IranWire)
۰ Flash floods kill six in Iran, state news agency reports (AFP)
Foreign policy + security
۰ Where do Kamala Harris, Donald Trump stand on Gaza war, Iran policy? (Al-Monitor)
۰ Trump makes a surprising overture to Iran at NYC press conference (Politico)
۰ Iran’s history of elaborate election interference efforts before the Trump campaign hack (NBC News)
۰ Iran’s plot to infiltrate Trump’s team to stop him toppling regime (Telegraph)
۰ Iran is targeting Canadian relatives of Flight 752 victims (Globe and Mail)
۰ MI5 chief: UK facing growing threat from Islamic State, Russia and Iran (The Guardian)
۰ How Iran uses criminal gangs in the West to target its enemies (Wall Street Journal)
۰ Murder for hire: Inside Iran’s proxy war with Israel in the West (Reuters)
۰ Iran may be behind attacks on Israeli embassies, Sweden says (BBC)
۰ What Russia wants from Israel-Iran escalation: Chaos good, war bad (Al Jazeera)
۰ Iran summons Australian envoy over stance on its Israel attack, Tasnim says (Reuters)
۰ Iranian president locks in gas pipeline deal with Russia (Moscow Times)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ There is no evidence Iran has decided to rush toward building a nuclear weapon, CIA director says (NBC News)
۰ Iran crisis ignites new debate about Trump’s nuclear deal exit (New York Times)
۰Los Angeles County man arrested for allegedly violating sanctions against Iran (CBS News)
۰ How Iran’s dark fleet of oil ships smuggles black gold to China (The Times)