Everything you need to know about Italy talks—and more
The Iranist for the week of April 18, 2025
Read my co-authored guest essay in the New York Times about why human rights should be part of the negotiations.
THE هفت/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:
۱/1 Iran talks continue—this time in Oman, erm, Rome
On April 12, the United States and Iran held their first round of talks in Oman about the country’s controversial nuclear program. The US side was led by Special Envoy for the Middle East (and Russia issues) Steve Witkoff, and the Iranian side was led by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (Axios).
DIRECT OR INDIRECT TALKS? Iran got ahead of the information flow by its Foreign Ministry posting in English about how the talks are indirect, not direct, as the Trump administration has repeatedly said (X). However, the talks in Muscat were a bit of both. The talks began around 3:30 pm local time and lasted over two hours (AP).
Initially, the US and Iran delegations were in separate rooms, relaying messages in English shuttled by Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi (BBC/CNN). However, before leaving, Araghchi and Witkoff reportedly spoke in the presence of Busaidi before leaving the venue, though various reports offer different time periods. Some reported a “few minutes,” but Axios claimed that it was actually 45 minutes. Even the Iranian state broadcaster revealed Witkoff and Araghchi “briefly spoke” together, despite all the political maneuvering to suggest these were indirect talks (AP). Interestingly, Araghchi said the next round of talks “will continue to be indirect. Oman will remain the mediator,” he added that the focus is on “the nuclear issue and the lifting of sanctions” and that Iran “will not have any talks with the American side on any other issue.” (Times of Israel)
WHAT WAS SAID AFTER? After the talks concluded, Araghchi posted on X:
“Constructive and promising round of indirect talks with US Special Envoy @SteveWitkoff… The talks were conducted in an atmosphere of mutual respect. I elaborated Iran's viewpoints in a firm yet forward-looking manner. Both sides decided to continue the process in a matter of days.”
Hours later, the White House released a statement that said:
“The discussions were very positive and constructive… Special Envoy Witkoff underscored to Dr. Araghchi that he had instructions from President Trump to resolve our two nations’ differences through dialogue and diplomacy, if that is possible. These issues are very complicated… today was a step forward in achieving a mutually beneficial outcome.”
Commenting on the talks, on April 15, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said:
The negotiations were “well carried out in the first steps. Of course, we are very pessimistic about the other side, but we are optimistic about our own capabilities… The development of the Islamic Republic’s various affairs should not be linked to the issue of the talks. Let us not tie the country’s issues to the talks.” (IranWire)
The comments also appeared with an endorsement of Araghchi on the Supreme Leader’s official website (X).
Nevertheless, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesperson Ali Mohammad Naini noted that “National security and defense and military power are among the red lines of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which cannot be discussed or negotiated under any circumstances,” an apparent reference to its ballistic missile program (AFP). Still Iranian dailies, for the most part, appear to be endorsing the talks (Amwaj.media).
WHERE ARE THE NEXT TALKS? On April 14, reports said that the second round of talks is supposed to occur in Italy on April 19. However, they were moved back to Oman on April 15—upon the insistence of the Iranians—and, a day later, back to Rome (Reuters/AP/AP). According to Amwaj.media, the Omani foreign minister requested an initial venue change to save Witkoff from a 17-hour flight. The Iranians reportedly asked that the venue not be moved to Britain, France, or Germany, the countries known as the E3. Coincidentally, US Vice President J.D. Vance will be in Italy on the same date.
JCPOA OR LIBYA-STYLE DEAL? On April 14, in a Fox News interview, Witkoff said:
“They (Iran) do not need to enrich past 3.67 percent. In some circumstances, they’re at 60 percent, in other circumstances, 20 percent. That cannot be. You do not need to run—as they claim—a civil nuclear program where you’re enriching past 3.67 percent.”
3.67 percent is the number Iran is allowed to enrich uranium per the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that Trump withdrew from in 2018 despite Tehran not violating the deal at the time. The comments incensed many who were hawkish on Iran—many of whom made the point that this was no different from the Barack Obama-era deal (The Hill).
On April 14 and 15, two meetings were convened in the Situation Room with President Trump on how to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon (Axios). Not surprisingly, there has been a debate on the issue amongst top US officials for some time. As I’ve mentioned before, the White House National Security Council (NSC) and Witkoff appear to have different ideas on what should happen to Iran’s nuclear program. For instance, NSC advisor Michael Waltz is for “full dismantlement” à la Libya, as is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while Witkoff is for a “verification program,” like the JCPOA. (Vice President Vance also agrees that diplomacy should lead to a deal.)
This is what Axios also confirmed as part of the divide. Nevertheless, the Iran hawks in the room appeared to have won the argument for now, as the US special envoy’s official account posted on X on April 15:
“…Any final arrangement must set a framework for peace, stability, and prosperity in the Middle East—meaning that Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program...”
Responding to the news, on April 16, Araghchi called the mixed messaging from the Trump administration “not helpful,” but said that he would “wait to be informed on their real position during negotiations.” (New York Times). More importantly, he also said that Iran’s right to enrich uranium is not negotiable (Reuters).
Meanwhile, Iran International is reporting that Tehran proposed a three-stage deal to cap enrichment if the US lifts sanctions.
ISRAEL WANTED TO ATTACK IRAN On April 16, the New York Times broke a story that Israel planned to strike Iranian nuclear facilities in May, but that President Trump stopped them in order to try and negotiate with Tehran first.
Per the report:
“The goal of the proposals, according to officials briefed on them, was to set back Tehran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon by a year or more. Almost all of the plans would have required US help not just to defend Israel from Iranian retaliation, but also to ensure that an Israeli attack was successful, making the United States a central part of the attack itself.”
According to the report, numerous Trump officials, including NSC advisor Waltz, were skeptical of Israel’s plan.
On April 17, responding to the New York Times report, Trump said, “I wouldn’t say I waved off an attack on Iran, but I am not in a rush to do it.” (X)
On the same day, the prime minister of Israel’s official account wrote on X:
“The Prime Minister has led countless overt and covert operations in the campaign against Iran's nuclear program; it is only due to these operations that Iran does not currently possess a nuclear arsenal… As the Prime Minister has made clear more than once: Israel will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.”
According to Ynet News, Israeli officials are alarmed over the US’ “soft” stance in nuclear talks with Iran.
IAEA IN TEHRAN On April 16, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi visited Tehran to meet with top officials, including Araghchi and Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (AP).
The nuclear watchdog head said in comments to reporters:
“We know that we are in a very crucial, I would say, stage of this important negotiation, so I want to concentrate on the positive. There is a possibility of a good outcome. Nothing is guaranteed. We need to make sure that we put all of the elements in place... in order to get to this agreement. We know we don’t have much time. So this is why I’m here. This is why I’m in contact with the United States as well.”
Asked about Trump’s threats to attack Iran, Grossi urged people to “concentrate on our objective. Once we get to our objective, all of these things will evaporate because there will be no reason for concern.” The last time the IAEA director general was in Iran was in November 2024.
Days before his visit, Grossi told Le Monde newspaper that "There’s still a way to go” before Iran gets a nuclear weapon, “But they’re not far off, that has to be acknowledged.” (France24)
۲/2 Supreme Leader sends letter to Russia about talks
۳/3 Kurdish political prisoner at imminent risk of execution
There are five political prisoners total at risk (X).
۴/4 Saudi defense minister visits Tehran—highest level visit since 1990s
۵/5 Jimmy Sharmahd’s body returned with several organs removed
Watch this interview with his daughter, Gazelle Sharmahd.
۶/6 Sister of political prisoner on death row passes away
Much of the Iranian activist and human rights community is mourning the death of Negar Korkor (see here).
۷/7 ‘Azizam’ Iranian wedding music video released 🩷
And yes, Googoosh made a cameo! More importantly, Ed Sheeran also released this Persian language version of the hit song featuring the legendary singer.
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human Rights
۰ Political prisoner warns about rise in executions (IranWire)
۰ Rapper Amir Tataloo sentenced to death (IranWire)
۰ Mass executions of drug offenders are a human rights emergency (CHRI)
۰ Minoo Roozehdar sentenced to imprisonment and fine (HRANA)
۰ Intelligence arrests Mahsa Amini’s uncle (IranWire)
۰ Protest rapper transfers social media control after police summons (IranWire)
۰ Seven female singers banned after security interrogation (IranWire)
۰ Sociologist sentenced to 4 years in prison (IranWire)
۰ Fatimeh Sepehri’s health is deteriorating (X)
۰ Imminent threat to amputate prisoners’ fingers (Human Rights Watch)
۰ EU ministers adopt Iran sanctions over citizen detentions (Reuters)
Domestic Issues
۰ Former Tehran mayor who murdered wife attends official meeting (IranWire)
Foreign Policy + Security
۰ State Department closes the office that flags disinformation from Russia, China and Iran (AP)
۰ Former FAA contractor pleads guilty to spying for Iran (Fox News)
۰ Iran needs regime change—I’d die for it, says Shah’s son (The Times)
۰ Iran resumes smuggling arms to Hezbollah via Beirut’s port (Jerusalem Post)
۰ Will troubled pivot to Europe, Turkey lead Armenia back to Iran, Russia? (Amwaj.media)
Iran Deal + Sanctions
۰ President accepts resignation of 2015 nuclear deal figure as UN atomic chief due in Tehran (AP)
۰ Iran has a reason to strike a nuclear deal: Its economy is in trouble (Wall Street Journal)
۰ US issues new sanctions targeting Chinese importers of Iranian oil (Reuters)
۰ Seven individuals and two entities targeted by EU sanctions over serious human rights violations (Europa.eu)
Arts + Culture
۰ The 100 most influential people of 2025: Mohammad Rasoulof (TIME)
۰ Exiled Iranian director’s Palestinian protagonist killed in Israeli missile strike (Variety)