Everything you need to know about the presidential election—and more
The Iranist for the week of June 27, 2024
NOTE: I was unable to send a newsletter last week due to a family emergency (all is well now!)
۱/1 Everything you need to know about the presidential election
* “Reformists” or “Moderates” describe themselves as individuals who believe in the status quo and reforming the Islamic Republic, while “Principlists” or “Fundamentalists” are what Western media call “hardliners.”
WHEN IS THE ELECTION? The presidential elections, which are neither free nor fair, will take place on Friday, June 28. If no presidential candidate secures a majority on June 28, a runoff between the top two candidates will be held on July 5 to determine Iran’s next president. Votes reportedly could be tallied as early as June 30, though most experts believe there will be a second round (Washington Post).
WHO IS RUNNING?
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf / hardliner / current speaker of parliament and former IRGC Air Force commander (ran in 2005, 2013, 2017), sanctioned by Canada
Saeed Jalili / hardliner / supreme Leader’s representative in the Supreme National Security Council and former nuclear negotiator (ran in 2013, 2021), sanctioned by Canada
Masoud Pezeshkian / reformist / member of parliament representing Tabriz
Mostafa Pourmohammadi / hardliner / former justice minister and interior minister
Read more about the candidates
WHO DROPPED OUT?
Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi / hardliner / Ebrahim Raisi’s vice president (ran in 2021) – dropped out on Wednesday, June 26
Alireza Zakani / hardliner / mayor of Tehran (ran in 2021), sanctioned by the UK – dropped out on Thursday, June 27
Dropping out to coalesce around a single candidate is common. However, Ghazizadeh Hashemi and Zakani’s departure doesn’t do much for the hardline candidates. Nevertheless, Ghalibaf and Jalili stand out as frontrunners of the faction (Al Jazeera). Both have dismissed speculation of resigning in favor of the other, arguably dividing the votes that could be given to a single principalist candidate (IranWire). Based on that calculation, it seems the election will go to a second round—likely against Pezeshkian, the sole reformist candidate who appears to be leading in several polls (SEE BELOW).
It’s widely believed that Pezeshkian was allowed to run by the Guardian Council—a twelve-member vetting body in which six are appointed by the Supreme Leader directly—to stimulate a higher voter turnout to give the clerical establishment legitimacy, which it currently lacks domestically. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has always emphasized that the regime’s legitimacy stemmed from its popularity and always encourages citizens to vote to show that popular support.
On June 21, Khamenei encouraged “maximum” voter turnout in the election, noting, “it is the pride of the Islamic Republic.” He added, “In every election where the turnout was low, the enemies of the Islamic republic have denounced us.” (AFP)
HOW MUCH DIFFERENCE DOES THIS ELECTION MAKE? Of course, Supreme Leader Khamenei is the primary decision-maker. None of the candidates have provided concrete solutions to Iran’s major problems. However, one of the big issues looming over the election is the Iranian economy, which is, to some extent, tied to the unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States (the other parts being tied to systemic mismanagement and corruption).
There’s a widely held belief that former President Donald Trump may return to the White House in January 2025. The Trump administration withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 despite Tehran not violating the multilateral nuclear deal at the time and reimposed unilateral sanctions as part of its twelve-point maximum pressure strategy and also assassinated Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020.
The former president has been mentioned in the lead up to the election more than President Joe Biden, suggesting that Tehran is preparing for this reality. Two Iranian officials confirmed this, saying that the foreign ministry has created an informal working group to start preparing for a second Trump term, and while they would try indirect negotiations, they would not meet with him (New York Times).
During the fifth and final presidential debate on June 25, Ghalibaf warned that the next Iranian president could be “forced to either sell Iran to Trump or spark a dangerous tension in the country” if its economic problems weren’t solved (AP). Ironically, Ghalibaf has vowed to build a wall between Iran and neighboring Afghanistan and Pakistan (X) and even has a billboard saying so (X). Jalili claims his competitors are “scared” of Trump and said at a campaign rally, “Mr. Trump, you gambler, we are the ones who can deal with you.” (New York Times) Pourmohammadi said that Tehran should resume talks now before a possible Trump presidency, but he also happens to have a campaign poster of himself beside the former US president that declares, “I am the one who can stand against Trump!”
On the last day of debates, in a speech, Khamenei criticized “certain Iranian politicians” for believing “all paths to progress pass through the United States,” the Islamic Republic’s foe (AFP). The comment appeared to be a subtle jab at Pezeshkian, who had recently called for improving ties with Washington to remove US sanctions. The reformist candidate had deployed former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, an advisor and lead negotiator of the JCPOA, to campaign alongside him.
WILL IRANIANS BOYCOTT? The 2021 presidential election and recent parliamentary elections both had the lowest turnouts in the Islamic Republic’s forty-five-year history. Given systemic mismanagement, corruption, and repression, many are disillusioned with the Islamic Republic and want the regime gone. The clerical establishment has its core support base, but that number gets smaller by the year.
Some Iranians in Iran and members of the diaspora are calling for a boycott of the elections using hashtag رای_بی_رای# (“No way I'll vote”) and have also described the presidential elections as سیرک_انتخابات# (“Election Circus”). Iranians are seemingly unmoved by this election that even the topic of boycotting is not a serious conversation because it’s assumed already that the average Iranian won’t vote.
To many, the presidential candidates are merely puppets, which was best highlighted by a viral meme of candidates’ faces superimposed on Khamenei.
A common theme has been the bloody crackdowns on protesters, most recently the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom uprising. On social media, the slogan, “A sea of blood divides us,” referring to the people and the clerical establishment, is commonly used alongside photos of slain protesters—both are shared as reasons not to participate on June 28.
Many Iranians reflect on the inability of reformists to deliver on their promises of “reform” and increased civil liberties.
Not surprisingly, political prisoners—including Nobel Laureate Narges Mohammadi—as well as activist groups and student organizations have called for boycotting the election (IranWire). I wrote about how Iranians are disillusioned that the next president will bring fundamental change to the country.
The New York Times spoke to more than a dozen Iranians of various backgrounds, which:
“revealed a degree of weariness, even skepticism, despite the risks of speaking freely in Iran. Even those who say they will vote—although they rarely want to say for whom—say they have little faith that their lives will change in ways that matter to them.”
Meanwhile, more than thirty ballot stations will reportedly be set up across the United States for Iranian absentee ballots (VOA).
WHAT DO THE POLLS SAY? This week, the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) published the results of its final polling that said 43.9 percent will vote in the presidential election. On June 22, Netherlands-based GAMAAN published their latest survey, which found that 65.6 percent would not vote in the election. About 68 percent said the reason for not voting was due to “opposition to the overall system of the Islamic Republic.” Interestingly, according to GAMAAN, 37.7 percent said they’d vote for Pezeshkian, 29.4 percent for Jalili, and 8.3 percent for Ghalibaf. Last week, polling published by the conservative, government-run Imam Sadiq University said that 24.4 percent of Iranians would vote for Pezeshkian, while 23.4 percent would vote for Ghalibaf and 21.5 percent for Jalili (New York Times).
It’s important to note that given the authoritarian nature of the Islamic Republic, polling is hard to conduct within Iran.
۲/2 Dissident rapper Toomaj Salehi’s death sentence overturned
۳/3 Canada designates IRGC as terrorist entity
۴/4 Senior US official says any Israeli military offensive into Lebanon would risk an Iranian response
۵/5 State Department publishes report on human trafficking in Iran
۶/6 Iran and Bahrain agree to discuss resuming ties after eight years
۷/7 US sanctions shadow banking network accused of moving billions for the Iranian military
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Iran sentences 2019 protest victim to 31 months in prison (IranWire)
۰ Mother of two killed by husband in public (IranWire)
۰ Desperate journey ends in catastrophe for young Iranian asylum seeker (IranWire)
۰ Iran goes after its women activists as world’s attention turns to its sham election (CHRI).
Domestic issues
۰ As Iran’s presidential vote looms, tensions boil over renewed headscarf crackdown (AP)
۰ Presidential candidate discloses Tehran's controversial contract with China (IranWire)
۰ ‘Hamster’ crypto craze has taken Iran. It highlights economic malaise ahead of presidential election (AP)
۰ Flooding in Iran’s Savadkoh causes severe damage, two missing (IranWire)
۰ Iran’s water crisis leads to alarming ground collapse (DW)
Foreign policy + security
۰ NATO’s deputy chief says Iran helping Russian ‘threat to European security’ (Al-Monitor)
۰ Iranian ambassador satisfied with Swiss mediation but unhappy with sanctions (Swissinfo.ch)
۰ Planes flying from Lithuania to SE Asia mysteriously land in Iran (Jerusalem Post)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ US cautious on Iran’s Bahrain frozen funds claims, warns of sanctions (Al-Monitor)
Arts + culture
۰ ‘Queen Cleopatra’ Helmer Tina Gharavi tapped to co-direct Iranian royal family drama series ‘The Shah, The Spy, The Madman’ (Variety)