Everything you need to know about the 🚁 crash—and more
Everything you need to know about the 🚁 crash—and more
The Iranist for the week of May 24, 2024
۱/1 President and foreign minister die in helicopter crash
On May 19, a helicopter carrying President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and several others, including provincial officials, crashed in East Azerbaijan province, killing all seven onboard. The group was returning from attending the inauguration of a dam on Iran’s border with Azerbaijan.
Initial reports blamed adverse weather conditions. However, according to a state media interview with the president’s chief of staff, Gholam Hossein Esmaili, the trio of helicopters took off in clear weather conditions (IRNA). An hour into the ride, a cloud mass appeared. As the three helicopters decided to ascend above the cloud, the primary helicopter carrying the president—a Bell 212 helicopter—did not and disappeared. Contact was eventually made via cell phone with Tabriz Friday Prayer leader Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem—who was on board. He notified authorities of the crash and that he was surrounded by trees (Ale-Hashem succumbed to his injuries). The other two helicopters made their destination with no issues.
On May 23, the general staff of the armed forces released a preliminary report on the crash:
“Some actions require more time for a definitive opinion... while some issues can be stated with certainty and are mentioned here, no evidence of bullet impact or similar instances was observed in the remaining parts of the crashed helicopter.. The crashed helicopter caught fire after hitting an altitude… The helicopter continued its pre-planned route and did not deviate from the designated flight path.” (Iran International)
The report appeared to be an attempt to convey to the public that there was no foul play.
It's worth noting that Presidents Abolhasan Banisadr and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad survived their helicopter crashes while in office.
WHO WAS ON THE HELICOPTER?
President Ebrahim Raisi
Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian
Governor of East Azerbaijan province Malik Rahmati
Friday prayer leader of Tabiz Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Al-Hashem
Head of president’s security detail Sardar Seyed Mehdi Mousavi
Helicopter pilot Colonel Seyed Taher Mostafavi
Co-pilot Colonel Mohsen Daryanush
Flight technician Major Behrouz Ghadimi
Interestingly, Ghadimi was the second cousin to Pouya Bakhtiari, who was killed by security forces during the November 2019 protests, according to his relative in a now-deleted tweet (X).
Read more about the individuals (Al Jazeera).
WHY IS RAISI CALLED THE ‘BUTCHER OF TEHRAN’? Ebrahim Raisi is widely known as the “Butcher of Tehran” because he served on one of the death commissions that mass executed 5,000 political prisoners in 1988, in what became known as the 1988 massacre. Human rights organizations believe it to be on the level of crimes against humanity. Read Amnesty International’s chilling report about the massacre.
WHO TAKES OVER THE PRESIDENCY? Per Article 131 of the Islamic Republic’s Constitution, elections are held in fifty days and the first vice president—in this case, Mohammad Mokhber—will serve as interim president while Ali Bagheri Kani will serve as acting foreign minister. Learn more about Mokhber.
Presidential elections will take place on Friday, June 28. Candidates can register from May 30 – June 3 and are allowed to campaign from June 12 until the morning of June 27 (CNN).
The 2021 presidential election and recent parliamentary elections both had the lowest turnouts in the Islamic Republic’s forty-five-year history.
Curious about contenders? Here are some names.
HOW WAS THE HELICOPTER FOUND? Due to the “complexity of the area, fog and low temperature,” search-and-rescue teams took about fourteen hours to locate the helicopter on a mountainside in northwestern Iran (Al Jazeera).
When the news broke, Turkey reached out to Tehran but could not detect a signal, as “the signal system was either turned off or the helicopter did not have the signal system,” an apparent reference to its transponder (CNN). Turkey reportedly sent an Akinci drone as part of the search-and-rescue efforts and claims that it provided the location of the wreckage (RFE/RL). However, Tehran has downplayed the role of foreign countries in helping locate the helicopter. Since the incident, there’s been an intense debate over how big of a role Ankara played (Iran International).
On May 20, the State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said the Iranian government had asked the United States for help:
“We did make clear to them that we would offer assistance, as we would do in response to any request by a foreign government in this sort of situation. And ultimately, we were not able to provide that assistance… Ultimately, largely for logistical reasons, we were unable to provide that assistance.” (state.gov)
ARE US SANCTIONS TO BLAME? On May 21, former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said:
“One of the causes of this heart-breaking incident is the United States, which by sanctioning the sale of the aviation industry to Iran caused the martyrdom of the president and his companions. The US’s crime will be recorded in the minds of the Iranian people and history.” (CNN)
The type of helicopter carrying the Iranian president and his entourage was an American-made, Vietnam war-era dual-rotor Bell 212 helicopter, which was last produced in 1998. This specific helicopter was manufactured in 1994 (Wall Street Journal). Sanctions have prevented Tehran from purchasing American aircraft and spare parts. It’s worth noting that Iran had nineteen major aviation accidents in the last decade, some attributed to faulty equipment.
Having that been said, according to the Wall Street Journal:
“One European official said Iranians typically don’t use its latest aircraft for trips abroad, such as Raisi’s trip to the border with Azerbaijan, precisely to make this point about the impact of sanctions.”
Read this thread by a sanctions specialist on why sanctions may not have been the culprit.
WHAT ABOUT THE FUNERAL? Five days of mourning were declared. On May 21, funeral rites began in northwestern Tabriz, the closest major city to the crash site, and then the central city of Qom, the clerical center of the country. On May 22, there was another funeral procession in the capital, Tehran, where foreign dignitaries gathered and high-ranking government officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. On May 23, Raisi was buried in Mashhad, his home city in the northeast (Reuters).
Representatives from more than sixty-eight countries, most of which were not heads of state, were also in attendance (CNN). Of note were Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Hamas Political Chief Ismail Haniyeh, and officials from neighboring Gulf countries. Tehran received condolence messages from China, Russia, North Korea, and Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates (Amwaj.media).
There was an outpouring of condolences from various Western officials, including European Union Council President Charles Michel (X) and European Union Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell Fontelles (X). The messages prompted angry reactions online. NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah’s message of condolence on X (formerly Twitter) had this reader’s note:
“Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi killed thousands of innocent people for no reason, earning himself the nickname ‘The Butcher of Tehran.’” (X)
The State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller issued a press statement:
“The United States expresses its official condolences for the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, and other members of their delegation in a helicopter crash in northwest Iran. As Iran selects a new president, we reaffirm our support for the Iranian people and their struggle for human rights and fundamental freedoms.” (state.gov)
FYI: A US government source told me that the US message was inspired by the condolence message for Joseph Stalin (with an extra line for the Iranian people). Read the message for Stalin.
Others were critical of Tehran, such as Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis:
“I don’t feel comfortable sending condolences while Iran is sending drones that are used against civilians in Ukraine.” (X)
It was primarily conservative European MPs and Republican members of the US Congress who criticized the comments made by their governments or commented negatively about Raisi (Iran International). Read all the statements made.
HOW DID IRANIANS REACT? As news of the crash spread, many Iranians on social media used dark memes and jokes to poke fun at the helicopter crash (X). Some made references hoping that wolves and bears would kill or maul to death the president and his entourage. In contrast, others honed in on Tehran’s inability to locate the helicopter, making memes of the “Lost” television series with Raisi’s face superimposed or how the president would become feral like Tarzan by the time he was found.
Upon news breaking of the crash, the daughters of Minoo Majidi, who was killed by security forces during the Women, Life, Freedom uprising, celebrated by toasting with alcohol (X).
When the deaths were confirmed, some Iranians posted videos of themselves celebrating with alcohol, dancing, and anti-government chants. Videos of fireworks were posted, though the news coincided with the birthday of the Shia Saint, Imam Reza. Many Iranians who had lost loved ones stretching as far back as the1988 massacre and to recent protests expressed their happiness on social media (Atlantic Council). There were even photos and videos of individuals celebrating in Syria (X) and the Gaza Strip (X).
Authorities warned the public about showing any signs of celebrating Raisi’s death, and security forces were seen on the streets of the capital, Tehran, since the crash (AP)
The celebrations prompted authorities to file cases against those “publishing false content, lies and insults” regarding the deaths. (AP) On May 21, journalist and translator Manijeh Moazenzadeh was charged following her crash coverage (HRANA). Others have been summoned to court, including the wife of an Iranian soccer star (Instagram).
Thousands gathered at the funeral processions in various parts of Iran. The Associated Press reported that “the days of services for Raisi have not drawn the same crowds” as for Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020, which is “a potential sign of the public’s feelings about Raisi’s presidency.”
The regime still has its supporters, though those numbers are getting smaller by the year (my calculation is about 20.5 million or 23 percent of the country’s 90 million population—far below the 30 percent needed for an authoritarian regime to survive). As the BBC News notes, “Typically, government employees and schoolchildren attend such events en masse, while others take part out of patriotism, curiosity or to witness historic events.”
۲/2 Assembly of Experts has a new geriatric chief
On May 21, the Assembly of Experts, an 86-member clerical body tasked with appointing and dismissing the supreme leader, held its first session after the March elections, which decided the new assembly. Two of its members, President Raisi and Tabriz Friday Prayer leader Ayatollah Ale-Heshem, were killed in the helicopter crash. Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani, 93, who was elected the new chairman, opened the first session.
This new cohort of assembly members, which is elected every eight years, will likely determine the next supreme leader, given that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 85 years old
۳/3 Senate republicans grill secretary of state over the Biden administration’s Iran policy
۴/4 US and Iranian officials held indirect talks to prevent regional escalation
On May 14, senior US officials held indirect talks with Iranian officials in Oman “on how to avoid escalating regional attacks.” (Axios) It was the first since Iran retaliated against Israel on April 13 in response to the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy compound in Syria that killed several senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members. White House Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk and Deputy Special Envoy for Iran Abram Paley led the US talks that were held in a separate room from their Iranian counterparts, with Omani officials shuttling in between. It's unclear who was representing the Iranian side.
According to two sources speaking to Axios:
“the talks focused on clarifying the consequences of actions by Iran and its proxies in the region and to discuss US concerns regarding the status of Iran's nuclear program.”
In January, McGurk and Paley also had talks with Iranians, which focused on persuading Tehran to curb attacks by Houthis rebels against international commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
Commenting on the news, on May 19, the Iranian mission to the United Nations confirmed that indirect talks, noting that the discussions are an “ongoing process” and “neither are the first nor will they be the last.” (Iran International)
۵/5 Iranian Jew faces imminent execution
On May 17, news broke of a Jewish Iranian at imminent execution at Kermanshah Central Prison (IranHR). Arvin Nathaniel Ghahremani, 20, was allegedly defending himself when he was attacked with a knife during a street fight, leading to the death of a Muslim man, Amir Shokri, in 2022 (when he was 18). Ghahremani was convicted of intentional murder and was handed a qisas sentence (retribution-in-kind). He can only be spared under the Islamic penal code if the family of the victim forgives him, which they have refused to do. It’s important to note that a non-Muslim would be executed for the murder of a Muslim, but if the reverse had happened, the Muslim would not be executed.
In an audio recording, Ghahremani’s mother pleaded to the public to help save her son from execution.
On May 20, US Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Antisemitism Ambassador Deborah Lipstadt tweeted:
“We are deeply concerned by reports that authorities in Iran plan to proceed with the execution of Arvin Ghahramani. We note with concern that Iranian authorities often subject Jewish citizens to different standards when it comes to determining judgments in cases of this nature. We once again urge the Iranian authorities to respect all fair trial guarantees and ensure fair application of the law.” (X)
Israeli outlet Ynet reported that a day prior, on May 19, “the Jewish community in Iran was informed that the execution has been postponed until next month.”
۶/6 Nobel Laureate Narges Mohammadi is facing a new trial
۷/7 Whistleblowers allege former secretary of state blocked FBI from arresting Iranian agents on US soil
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ ‘Exhausting and extremely dangerous’: Mohammad Rasoulof on his escape from Iran (The Guardian)
Domestic issues
۰ In rare intervention, Rouhani laments shrinking circle of power in Iran (Amwaj)
۰ Is Iran’s former top diplomat aiming to run for president? (The National)
۰ Iran arrests over 260 including three Europeans at ‘Satanist’ meeting (Reuters)
Foreign policy + security
۰ US intelligence spotted Chinese, Iranian deepfakes in 2020 aimed at influencing US voters (CNN)
۰ Lufthansa extends suspension of flights to Tehran (Iran International)
۰ US calls on Iran to halt unprecedented weapons transfers to Yemen’s Houthis for attacks on ships (AP)
۰ Jordan foils arms plot as kingdom caught in Iran-Israel shadow war (Reuters)
۰ Iran to send experts to ally Venezuela to help with medical accelerators (Reuters)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ Iran summons Australian charge d'affaires over anti-Tehran sanctions (Xinhua)
Economy + trade
۰ Iran relents on ‘luxury’ imports amidst economic desperation (Iran International)
Arts + culture
۰ Iranian-Danish director of ‘The Apprentice’ offers to screen movie for Trump (AP)