#CutTheRope, 400 ballistic missiles for Russia—and more
The Iranist for the week of February 22, 2024
THE هفت/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:
۱/1 Iran accuses Israel of being behind attack on gas pipelines
On February 14, explosions hit two natural gas pipelines in Fars and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari provinces (New York Times). The 790-mile (1,270 km) pipeline begins at the South Pars gas field and disrupted heat and cooking gas across at least five provinces—including North Khorasan, Lorestan, and Zanjan—knocking out about 15 percent of the country’s supplies. The explosions scared residents who thought a bomb drop caused it. Oil Minister Javad Owji called them a “terrorist act or sabotage,” but did not offer further details at the time. There were no casualties. On February 16, Owji said that teams worked to repair the damage, and service has since been restored.
The New York Times quoted three sources—two Western officials and an individual associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as Israel being behind the attacks. It reported:
“The Western officials and the Iranian military strategist said the gas pipeline attacks by Israel required deep knowledge of Iran’s infrastructure and careful coordination, especially since two pipelines were hit in multiple locations at the same time.”
Israel has not commented.
On February 21, Owji alleged after a cabinet meeting that:
The “explosion of the gas pipeline was an Israeli plot… The enemy intended to disturb gas service in the provinces and put people’s gas distribution at risk. The evil action and plot by the enemy was properly managed.” (AP)
It’s unclear how the pipes would have been struck, but explosives and the use of drones are a possibility.
Just a day after the two explosions, on February 15, there was an explosion at a chemical factory in Shahriyar, just west of Tehran (Iran International). The explosion at Salar Chemistry Company destroyed several fuel tanks. It’s unclear what prompted the incident.
Israel strikes again: The Israeli air force allegedly carried out a missile strike in Damascus that killed two foreigners and a Syrian civilian (BBC News). The area is known to be a place frequented by members of the IRGC.
۲/2 The latest on Iran’s nuclear program
On February 13, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that Iran is “presenting a face which is not entirely transparent when it comes to its nuclear activities.” (AP) Director General Rafael Grossi appeared to be referring to comments made by Ali Akbar Salehi, the former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) under President Hassan Rouhani (2013-2021).
Salehi seemed to suggest in a recent interview that Iran had all the pieces to make a nuclear weapon:
“We have all the (pieces) of nuclear science and technology. Let me give an example. What does a car need? It needs a chassis, it needs an engine, it needs a steering wheel, it needs a gearbox. Have you made a gearbox? I say yes. An engine? But each one is for its own purpose… We have it in our hands.” (AP)
Iran has repeatedly denied wanting to build a nuclear weapons program. However, since 2022, some officials have commented that Iran has the ability to develop a bomb but has no interest in doing so.
On February 19, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said that Tehran still is in contact with the signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It was unclear which countries it was referring to, but the JCPOA was signed by the five world powers plus Germany. The United States, under the Donald Trump administration, withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 despite Tehran not violating the deal at the time and reimposed unilateral sanctions as part of its maximum pressure strategy.
On February 19, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog said that while Iran had slowed its uranium enrichment since the end of 2023, it still was enriching at 7 kg of uranium per month to 60 percent purity—which is close to weapons-grade (Reuters). Under the JCPOA, Iran was only allowed to enrich 3.67 percent.
IAEA Director General Grossi noted:
“We seem to be drifting apart... Iran says they are not getting incentives from the West, but I find this logic very complicated to understand because they should work with us... It should never be contingent on economic or other incentives.” (Reuters)
Grossi is visiting Iran in March.
However, on February 21, the head of the AEOI, Mohammad Eslami, said that the visit was unlikely due to a “busy schedule.” (Reuters) He added, “Iran’s interactions with the IAEA continue as normal and discussions are held to resolve ambiguities and develop cooperation.” Eslami noted that Grossi had been invited to Iran’s first international nuclear energy conference in May.
۳/3 Hacktivist group Edalat-e Ali releases over a million judiciary documents
Separately, the Iranian judiciary’s X (formerly Twitter) account was suspended (Iran International).
۴/4 #CutTheRope to stop executions in Iran
On February 21, the daughter of an imprisoned US national and German-Iranian political dissident started a viral campaign, #CutTheRope, on the first anniversary of her father’s execution sentencing to highlight the wave of executions in Iran (Instagram). Jamshid Sharmahd, 68, was kidnapped from the United Arab Emirates and taken to Iran in 2020. He was put on trial on allegations of terrorism due to his affiliation with an Iranian opposition group that Tehran accused of being behind a 2008 bombing and was subsequently sentenced to death. Sharmahd, who has been in solitary confinement during his imprisonment, suffers from Parkinson's disease and has been repeatedly tortured.
Highlighting that at least 834 people were executed in 2023, Gazelle Sharmahd called on people to join the end executions campaign by posting a video or photo with #CutTheRope. She wrote on X (formerly Twiter) and her Instagram account:
“While the world is following the wars in the Middle East, the Islamic regime is using this time to commit an execution-massacre of the Iranian population. Each one of them is innocent. Each one of them stood up for human rights and against the terrorist regime… I stand in solidarity with political prisoners and the families of those executed. Every state-ordered murder leaves deep wounds in Iranian society. I say no to execution and no to lynching…” (Instagram)
Activists, former hostages, and prominent members of the Iranian diaspora have joined the campaign, including actress and Amnesty International ambassador Nazanin Boniadi, Yasmine Pahlavi (the wife of the former crown prince), and Belgian MP Darya Safai (VOA).
۵/5 Election campaigning kicks off
* “Reformists” or “Moderates” describe themselves as individuals who believe in the status quo and reforming the Islamic Republic, while “Principlists” or “Fundamentalists” are what Western media call “hardliners.”
On February 22, candidates began campaigning across Iran for the upcoming parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections on March 1 (AP). According to state media, 15,200 parliamentary candidates are running for the 290-seat legislature—twice the number of candidates in the 2020 election. Of that number, 1,713 are women (819 women competed in 2020). Nevertheless, most moderate candidates have been disqualified, and the election is expected to lead to another hardline-dominated parliament. The AFP reported that “the first official day of campaigning... did not see a large number of banners erected in favor of individual candidates or their coalitions.” Separately, 144 clerics are running for the eighty-eight-member Assembly of Experts, which selects the next Supreme Leader.
Just days prior, on February 18, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on Iranians to vote at the ballot box:
“Elections are the main pillar of the Islamic Republic. The way to reform the country is through elections… Do not assume that the enemy is weak and incapable… An important condition for victory is knowing the capabilities of the enemy, yet not fearing it.” (PressTV)
Despite being disqualified from running in the Assembly of Experts, former pragmatist President Hassan Rouhani called on Iranians to vote “to protest against the ruling minority.” (AFP) Meanwhile, on February 20, former President Mohammad Khatami said in a meeting with a small reformist party:
The government “should not assume that those who voted in the past two elections are necessarily happy about the country's situation. A free, fair, and competitive election is an election in which not only the reformists and conservatives, but also all other Iranians can have their own candidates.”
Imprisoned sociologist Saeed Madani, activist Hossein Razzaq, and former (reformist era) minister Mostafa Tajzadeh have all said they would boycott the March 1 elections (IranWire). Now, authorities are taking punitive measures against them in prison.
Last week, the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) published polling conducted by an unnamed government agency that said there would be a 30 percent voter turnout in the upcoming election. Netherlands-based Gamaan Institute gave roughly the same numbers, with 77 percent of Iranians inside the country saying they would not vote (Iran International). Particularly noteworthy from the polling is that 75 percent of Iranians said they seek the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. The numbers suggest the March 1 election will be the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic’s forty-five-year history.
Some Iranians in Iran and members of the diaspora are calling for a boycott of the elections using hashtag رای_بی_رای# ("No way I'll vote").
۶/6 US sanctions failed to stop $2.8 billion in Iranian oil shipments
۷/7 Iran reportedly delivered 400 ballistic missiles to Russia
On February 13, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired two Fateh short-range ballistic missiles from its Shahid Mahdavi warship in the Persian Gulf as part of a military exercise (Jerusalem Post). The ship is a converted cargo ship modified to carry drones and helicopters. Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC Hossein Salami called the launch a “success,” adding, “In the event of a naval conflict and our ships being targeted, we will respond with equal or greater force.” (Iran International)
On February 17, Iran unveiled its domestically produced Arman anti-ballistic missile system and Azarakhsh low-altitude air defense system (Reuters). IRNA reported that the missile system “can simultaneously confront six targets at a distance of 120 to 180 km,” while the air defense system “can identify and destroy targets… up to a range of 50 km with four ready-to-fire missiles.”
On February 21, Reuters, citing sources, reported that Iran had provided Russia with 400 surface-to-surface ballistic missiles.
However, Ukraine’s air force spokesperson said:
“We have been talking about Iranian ballistic missiles with a range of 300-700 kilometers for more than a year now. There is a possibility that Iran may conclude some kind of agreement with Russia... We are well aware that this poses a serious threat to us. But, so far, our official sources of information have no such data on the receipt of such a number of missiles.” (Ukrainska Pravda)
Meanwhile, the Iranian defense ministry said that its arms sales exports have grown by 40 percent over the past year (Al-Monitor).
Read:
Iran’s rise as global arms supplier vexes US and its allies (Wall Street Journal)
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Teenager died while in custody (IranWire)
۰ Judge threatens political prisoner with rape (IranWire)
۰ Women activists jailed for 15 years (IranWire)
۰ Three political activists sentenced to years in prison (IranWire)
۰ Tehran protesters go on trial over basiji’s death (IranWire)
۰ Lawyer jailed for advocating for protesters' families (Iran International)
۰ Journalist Nakhaei starts serving prison term (IranWire)
۰ Tortured street protester faces years of imprisonment without due process (CHRI)
۰ Iran is arresting teens for celebrating a soccer match loss from the national team, activists say (Business Insider)
۰ Crackdown on diaspora : Surge in passport seizures at Iranian airports (IranWire)
۰ Rights group says number of Christians arrested on the rise (RFE/RL)
۰ Disabled Iranians on tough terrain as hurdles persist (Al-Monitor)
۰ Post-protest censorship: Authors excluded without book review (IranWire)
Domestic affairs
۰ Cleric arrested in Qom for criticizing Supreme Leader (Iran International)
۰ Iranian daily claims life under clerical rule better than monarchy (Iran International)
۰ Hardliners say not voting is a 'cardinal sin' (Iran International)
۰ Zarif ridicules anti-regime protests (Iran International)
۰ Arrests after Iran’s iPhone ban paves way for multimillion-dollar scam (Al Jazeera)
۰ Man guns down 12 relatives in a shooting rampage with a Kalashnikov rifle (AP)
Foreign policy + security
۰ State Department inspector general probing suspension of Biden’s Iran envoy (Semafor)
۰ Academics in US, UK, and Australia collaborated on drone research with Iranian university close to regime (The Guardian)
۰ Czechs extradite suspect in Iran-backed murder plot to United States (Reuters)
۰ Iran, wary of wider war, urges its proxies to avoid provoking US (Washington Post)
۰ UAE restricts US ability to launch retaliatory airstrikes against Iran proxies (Politico)
۰ Houthis get critical support from Iran for Red Sea attacks, US Navy admiral says (CBS News)
۰ CENTCOM intercepts Iranian weapons shipment intended for Houthis (CENTCOM)
۰ US conducted cyberattack on suspected Iranian spy ship (NBC News)
۰ US strike killed Afghans recruited to fight for Iran (New York Times)
۰ Syrians learn Persian, Russian amid foreign hegemony over their country (Asharq Al-Awsat)
۰ Iran simulates strike on Israeli base as it showcases naval force (Al Jazeera)
۰ Iran’s IRGC claims developing stealth drones that ‘can hit any vessel’ (Al-Monitor)
۰ Iran, Russia urge calm following new Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes (Al-Monitor)
۰ Iranians condemn Navalny’s death, as state media treads carefully (Iran International)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ Iran keeps port traffic confidential amid global sanctions (Iran International)
۰ US slaps sanctions on subsidiary of Central Bank of Iran, other entities and individuals (Reuters)
Technology
۰ Iranian authorities escalate crackdown on VPNs (IranWire)
۰ US issues $15 million bounty on Iranian hacker (IranWire)
۰ Microsoft says it caught hackers from China, Russia, and Iran using its AI tools (Reuters)
۰ Twitter/X removes verified status of Iranian state media accounts (Al-Monitor)
ARTS + CULTURE
۰ An Iranian arts festival was condemned by a fatwa 45 years ago; its impact is now on view at Asian Arts Initiative (WHYY News)