Assad's downfall, hijab law paused—and more
The Iranist for the week of December 17, 2024
NOTE: I’m taking some time off until January… so this will be the year’s last newsletter! 💫
۱/1 Bye-bye, Assad—Tehran’s regional ally
On December 8, the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad—the Islamic Republic’s top ally in the region—fell after rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized the capital, Damascus. Since 2012, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and its proxies helped propped up the Assad regime, playing a role in the killing of more than half a million and the forcible displacement of 12 million Syrians. Tehran utilized Syria, a member of the now crumbling Resistance Axis, as part of its forward defense strategy and a vital supply route to transfer arms and other materiel to Hezbollah in Lebanon (Wall Street Journal). As the New York Times points out, Tehran also “operated military bases, weapons warehouses, and missile factories in Syria.”
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE IRANIANS IN SYRIA? The Iranian embassy in Damascus was ransacked, and posters of the late Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah were torn down (X). According to the Financial Times, “Iran rejected reports that $42 million of cash had been stolen from its embassy in Damascus after video footage emerged of assailants looting the building.”
Iranian diplomats and military commanders had reportedly evacuated the day prior on December 7, with some reportedly leaving as early as December 6 (France24/New York Times). Authorities claim that 4,000 Iranian citizens have returned from Syria since the downfall of Assad, some of which were pilgrims (IranWire). The rest presumably were tied to the clerical establishment.
The whereabouts of the Fatemiyoun Brigades and the Zainebiyoun Brigades, Iranian proxies in Syria led by Afghan and Pakistani Shias, remain unclear (VOA). However, “reports have indicated that some were flown to Iran along with IRGC forces. Others are said to have crossed into neighboring Iraq or followed fleeing Hezbollah forces into Lebanon.”
HOW DID THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC RESPOND? Days before his ouster, on December 2, Assad reportedly complained to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during a Damascus visit that Turkey was backing HTS, a Sunni jihadist group, to topple him (Reuters). Araghchi reportedly assured Assad that Iran would continue to support him and that he’d raise the issue with his Turkish counterpart. Araghchi reportedly also told Assad he was misreading his country’s situation after the Syrian dictator had said that his army was unwilling to fight back (New York Times)
But as the New York Times reported on December 7:
“Publicly, Iranian officials vowed to remain fully committed to supporting [Assad]. But privately, as the rebels gained control over more and more territory where Iran and its proxy militias had reigned, they wondered if events were outpacing their ability to turn the tide, the officials said.”
Assad’s fate was reportedly decided on December 7 during talks between the Iranian, Turkish, and Russian foreign ministers meeting in Qatar (Jerusalem Post).
Interestingly, as HTS approached Damascus, Iranian state media stopped referring to the US terrorist designated group as “terrorists” but instead as “armed groups” and “armed opposition.” (Middle East Eye)
Like much of the world, Iranian officials and ordinary Iranians alike were stunned by Assad’s fall. On December 8, President Masoud Pezeshkian said, “It is the Syrian people who must decide on the future of their country and its political and governmental system.” (New York Times) The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Tehran “will spare no effort to help establish security and stability in Syria, and to this end, we will continue consultations with all influential parties, especially in the region.” (Reuters)
On December 11, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed Assad’s downfall in a speech:
“What happened in Syria was mainly planned in the command rooms of America and Israel. We have evidence of this. A neighboring government of Syria was also involved,” in an apparent reference to Turkey. (Reuters)
On December 12, the Attorney General’s Office warned Iranian media outlets and activists to avoid discussion about Assad’s ouster because it could “disrupt the psychological security of society and frighten the public about the situation.” (Iran International). It’s clear that authorities are concerned about domestic discontent.
HOW ARE HTS AND TEHRAN GETTING ALONG? The Islamic Republic appears to be showing signs of flexibility in working with HTS, as it has with the Taliban in Afghanistan (Amwaj.Media). Iranian officials appear to be already engaging the group (Reuters). They also allege that HTS sent a private message that it would protect Shia religious sites, like Sayyidah Zaynab, and Shia minorities and asked Iran not to fight the group in return for safe passage out of Syria and protection of its shrines (New York Times).
However, on December 9, HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani singled out the Islamic Republic in his message to newly liberated Syrians, saying:
“This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history fraught with dangers (that left) Syria as a playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, stirring corruption.” (CNN)
Interestingly, HTS appointed a deputy for Iranian affairs, Abdulrahman Fattahi—an Iranian-born Sunni cleric and former imam—known for his jihadist sermons (Iran International). The group is reportedly trying to build ties with Iran's Sunnis in a bid to reduce Iran’s influence in Syria.
Meanwhile, a banner appeared in Damascus’ bazaar that reportedly read:
“Terrorist Iran uses the Palestinian liberation movement as a plan to occupy Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. But not to liberate Palestine. It spread sectarianism among the Muslim people… in order to expand [its power]” (X)
HOW ARE IRANIANS REACTING? For years, Iranians have been chanting in anti-regime protests, “Leave Syria, think about us,” and “No Gaza, No Lebanon, our lives for Iran,” referring to the Islamic Republic’s money spent on its Resistance Axis rather than the Iranian people. Since the surprising events in Syria, there has been a wide range of discussions, including about the money wasted and lives lost by Iranian fighters. It’s unclear how many Iranian “military advisors,” as officials have described them, died fighting in Syria. However, some reports claim that more than 2,000 “defenders of the shrine”—a term used to refer to the proxies—were killed (Amwaj.Media). (Sayyidah Zaynab, the tomb of the granddaughter of the Prophet Muhammad, has played a large role in shaping Iran’s narrative for fighting in Syria.)
As the New York Times reports:
“The Syria debate is happening at all levels of society... but in daily interactions everywhere. [Iranians] are asking: Why did we spend so much money there? What did we achieve? What is our justification now that it’s all gone?”
According to former member of parliament Bahram Parsaei, Tehran spent $30 billion on keeping Assad in power (X/IranWire). The Syrian opposition says the number is $50 billion (Amwaj.Media). To give you an idea of how much money is, IranWire claims that “The $30 billion could have funded multiple Olympic Games, built world-class stadiums, and still left over $1 billion.”
Hatef Salehi, a pro-regime analyst, said on Clubhouse that “the most important lesson of Syria for the Islamic Republic is that no government can last without the support of the people.” (New York Times)
Many pro-regime Iranians are focused on HTS’ Sunni jihadist background, which has roots in al-Qaeda. But anti-regime Iranians inside Iran and in the diaspora are starting to wonder if someday, perhaps soon, they’ll see the Islamic Republic’s downfall, like that of Assadism that ruled Syria for more than five decades.
۲/2 Rolling power cuts anger Iranians
Tehran and other provinces have been facing rolling power outages in October and November, disrupting Iranian homes and their businesses. The outages have now gotten so bad that authorities have implemented widespread closure of schools, offices, and commercial centers in several provinces (IranWire/IranWire). December 17 was the third consecutive day that schools and government buildings were closed due to fuel shortages and below-zero temperatures in more than half of the country’s thirty-one provinces (AFP). Meanwhile, malls and shopping centers in Tehran will limit opening hours to tackle severe energy shortages (Al-Monitor).
Iranian officials have been sharing video messages to conserve energy, while President Pezeshkian has encouraged Iranians to lower their heater temperatures by two degrees. Some are blaming cryptocurrency mining for sucking large amounts of power (AP).
The blackouts are causing disruption across various business sectors. Not surprisingly, in multiple towns across Tehran province, Iranians are protesting the power cuts, noting that the outages have “pushed them to their economic breaking point.” (IranWire)
۳/3 Women face death penalty for defying new hijab law
However, after much criticism by rights activists and ordinary Iranians, the law was paused just days before its implementation on December 20. As the BBC reports:
“The decision to pause its implementation suggests the government fears it could trigger another wave of mass protests, like those seen two years ago.”
Read Amnesty International’s breakdown of the draconian 74-article law.
Meanwhile, singer Parastoo Ahmadi live-streamed a performance without mandatory hijab at a Tehran caravanserai (ABC News). Watch the viral performance. Authorities quickly opened a case against the singer and her production team, calling it “an illegal concert” and saying they “did not comply with the country’s legal and cultural standards.” On December 14, the singer was arrested in northern Iran, and two musicians in her band—Soheil Faghih Nasiri and Ehsan Beiraghdar—were arrested in Tehran (AP). The three were released the next morning, on December 15, after Iranians expressed outrage over Ahmadi’s detention (Telegraph). Under the Islamic Republic, women aren’t allowed to sing solo in public.
۴/4 Mohammad Rasoulof’s film nominated for Golden Globe
The exiled Iranian filmmaker fled Iran earlier this year after being handed an eight-year prison sentence (AP).
۵/5 E3 tells UNSC they’re ready to trigger snapback
It’s worth noting that Iran said it will not impede the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) access and inspection of its nuclear sites (Reuters).
۶/6 Ex-intel chief Richard Grenell possible Iran envoy choice
However, Grenell denied the rumors on X:
“Wrong. Again. I hope there’s an actual editor somewhere at @Reuters who is doing journalism. This is made up.”
Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump said in a Time magazine interview that “anything can happen” when asked about the possibility of going to war with Iran (Reuters). On December 16, a journalist asked Trump if the country’s nuclear facilities could be targeted, to which he replied, “Well I can’t tell you that. I mean, it’s a wonderful question, but how can I—am I going to do preemptive strikes? Why would I say that?” (Fox News)
Read: Trump Team Weighs Options, Including Airstrikes, to Stop Iran’s Nuclear Program (Wall Street Journal)
۷/7 Iranian drones aren’t flying over New Jersey
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Iran hangs 11 in one day, moves political prisoner to solitary cell for execution (Iran International)
۰ Three executed in Qom prison, including Afghan national (IranWire)
۰ Iran executes four prisoners, including two women (IranWire)
۰ Supreme court overturns death sentence of Mojahid Korkur, orders retrial (IranWire)
۰ Activist sentenced to two years for 2022 protests (IranWire)
۰ Iranian citizen sentenced to over 3 years in prison in Armenia (IranWire)
۰ Authorities deny medical care to Kurdish political prisoner (IranWire)
۰ Manouchehr Bakhtiari returned to prison despite critical health conditions (IranWire)
۰ US condemns Iran’s prison sentence for former Radio Farda journalist (VOA)
۰ Fact-Finding Mission: Experts say evidence may open the door to Iran's prosecution (IranWire)
۰ Iran’s music house condemns artist arrests and concert bans (IranWire)
Domestic issues
۰ Pezeshkian to seek legal solution to Iran’s latest hijab law (Iran International)
۰ Iran currency slips to new lows amid US, Europe tensions (Reuters)
۰ Iran sees record divorce rates as couples blame economic hardships (Iran International)
۰ Magnitude 5.7 quake jostles western Iran (Times of Israel)
۰ Fire kills four at cooking oil factory in Iran (IranWire)
Foreign policy + security
۰ Two Iranian citizens charged in connection to drone strike that killed 3 US soldiers in Jordan (CNN)
۰ Iran arrests four on espionage charges (IranWire)
۰ The Israeli Jews who spied for Iran in biggest infiltration in decades (Reuters)
۰ Iran launches advanced module to deploy satellites to higher altitudes, media say (Reuters)
۰ In video appeal to Iranian citizens, Netanyahu says ‘one day Iran will be free’ (Times of Israel)
۰ Israel builds flexible presence in Syria as window opens to strike Iran (Al-Monitor)
۰ Senior China delegation in Iran to discuss ‘strategic partnership,’ economic ties (Al-Monitor)
۰ After decades of mistrust, Iran and Pakistan join forces against militancy (RFE/RL)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ Iran makes ‘dramatic’ leap to produce near-bomb-grade fuel, but to what end? (New York Times)
۰ Risk of Iran building nuclear weapons grows, US intelligence says (Wall Street Journal)
۰ US sanctions disrupt Iranian crude flows to China, Vortexa says (Bloomberg)
۰ US may target gasoline exports to Iran amid energy crisis (Iran International)
۰ German firm’s $14.5M fine not a deterrent for violating Iran sanctions (Al-Monitor)
۰ US court upholds ruling allowing sanctions prosecution of Turkey’s Halkbank (Reuters)