Anti-regime protests, Mahan Air blocked from entering Lebanon—and more
The Iranist for the week of February 14, 2025
THE هفت/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:
۱/1 To talk or not to talk, that is the question
The United States and Iran aren’t talking but they had an indirect exchange over the past week.
On February 8, US President Donald Trump told the New York Post:
“I would like a deal done with Iran on non-nuclear. I would prefer that to bombing the hell out of it… They don’t want to die. Nobody wants to die. If we made the deal, Israel wouldn’t bomb them.”
On February 10, during an exchange with Fox News’ Bret Baier, Trump said:
“Iran was broke. They were down to their last very small amount of money. Now, they have $350 billion, but they have other problems… I think we’re going to make a deal in Iran… And you know, there are a lot of people think that we are going to attack Iran… everyone thinks Israel, with our help or our approval, will go in and bomb the hell out of them. I would prefer that not happen. I’d much rather see a deal with Iran where we can do a deal… You can’t allow them to have a nuclear weapon. But there is two ways of stopping them, with bombs or with a written piece of paper, and I’d much rather do a deal that’s not going to hurt them… And I think they want it too. I think that Iran is very concerned. I think that Iran is very frightened, to be honest with you, because their defense is pretty much gone… I think Iran would love to make a deal, and I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them.” (Roll Call)
(Unclear where $350 billion number is from.)
On the same day, speaking in Tehran’s Azadi Square during a rally marking the forty-sixth anniversary of the Islamic Republic, President Masoud Pezeshkian questioned the United States sincerity, noting, “If the US were sincere about negotiations, why did they sanction us? We do not seek war... but will not yield to foreign pressure.” (Reuters) He added, “Trump says he wants to negotiate, yet at the same time, he signs off on every possible conspiracy to bring this revolution to its knees.”
On February 11, the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations Amir Saeid Iravani wrote a letter of complaint to the United Nations Security Council, referencing the comments made by Trump on Fox News and in the New York Post and urged the multilateral body to condemn the “brazen rhetoric.” He wrote:
“These reckless and inflammatory statements flagrantly violate international law and the UN Charter. The Islamic Republic of Iran warns that any act of aggression will have severe consequences, for which the US will bear full responsibility. Iran will resolutely defend its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national interests against any hostile action.” (Reuters)
On February 12, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a reference to the Iranian military, said:
“Progress should not be stopped, we cannot be satisfied (with our current level). Say that we previously set a limit for the accuracy of our missiles, but we now feel this limit is no longer enough. We have to go forward. Today, our defensive power is well-known, our enemies are afraid of this. This is very important for our country.” (Reuters)
On February 13, in what appears to be a response to the Washington Post report (see item 3), Pezeshkian said:
“They threaten us that they will hit nuclear facilities... If you (the enemy) strike a hundred of those we will build a thousand other ones... You can hit the buildings and the places but you cannot hit those who build it.” (Reuters)
۲/2 Anti-regime protests plague revolution anniversary
February 10 marked the forty-sixth anniversary of the Islamic Republic. The date commemorates the ouster of Western-backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and the takeover by the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The anniversary was marked by thousands attending rallies across Iran in support of the clerical establishment.
It was the usual anti-American fanfare but with more focus on US President Donald Trump. One viral video from the rallies showed a man wearing Trump’s signature navy suit and tie and a Trump face mask, appearing in chains while being escorted by an Iranian soldier (Newsweek).
As with the previous year, some Iranians used the date as an opportunity to protest. Iranians were heard chanting from their windows and rooftops in Tehran on the eve of the anniversary, “Death to the Islamic Republic,” “Death to the murderer Khamenei,” and “Death to the dictator.” (X) Traditionally, state media calls for chants of “Allah Akbar” at this time of year (popular revolutionary chants). A video making rounds on social media showed a woman in Tehran appearing without mandatory hijab and chanting “Death to the dictator” at pro-regime protesters (X). Such anti-regime chants continued on the anniversary in Tehran. Arak, Kermanshah, Karaj, and Mashhad, according to videos posted on social media (Iran International).
The chants also coincided with unexpected power outages across the capital (IranWire). On February 12, authorities announced that roughly two dozen provinces were closing government offices and schools in response to the power outages plaguing the country, prompted mostly by mismanagement and corruption (X). Iran is reportedly struggling to meet energy demands due to cold weather.
THE REVOLUTION CONTINUES On the anniversary of the revolution, on February 10, anti-regime protests broke out in the southwestern city of Dehdasht in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province (Iran International).
The protests, which lasted four nights, were described by state media as tribal clashes. However, videos posted on social media showed protesters chanting, “Death to the dictator,” “Death to the Islamic Republic,” “This year is year of blood, Seyyed Ali [Khamenei] will be overthrown.” (X) At least six individuals were arrested, several of whom appeared under the age of thirty—Gen Z—based on their photos, with one reportedly under the age of 18 (IranWire). Among those detained was Atefeh Tahernia, who had previously been arrested during the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising. According to some posts on social media, the youth of Dehdasht have called for continued protests, urging neighboring regions to join them, declaring that “silence in the face of oppression is betrayal.” Some social media users reported the Internet was shut down.
GREEN MOVEMENT PROTEST Meanwhile, February 13 marked the fourteenth anniversary of the house arrests of the 2009 Green Movement leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife Zahra Ranavard (Iran International). A “silent rally” was organized by activist Rahim Ghomeishi, an Iran-Iraq War veteran, to protest the incarceration of the couple, resulting in the arrest of dozens. The social media campaign was backed by 500 former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members, veterans, and their families.
۳/3 Israel likely to strike nuclear sites, according to US intel
۴/4 Former crown prince disinvited to MSC—again
However, journalist and women’s rights activist Masih Alinejad is reportedly attending the Munich Security Conference (MSC) for the third consecutive year (X). Iranian officials continue to be excluded from the annual conference (RFE/RL).
۵/5 Two British nationals arrested on alleged security charges
۶/6 Journalists Elaheh Mohammadi and Niloofar Hamedi pardoned
Meanwhile, journalist Rohollah Nakhaei was released from Evin prison after serving nearly one year of his sentence (IranWire).
۷/7 Lebanon blocks Mahan Air over fears of funding Hezbollah
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Prisoner dies in custody after being denied medical treatment (IranWire)
۰ Sixteen lawyers slammed with bogus charges for criticizing government (CHRI)
۰ Iran summons ‘My Favorite Cake’ film directors to revolutionary court (Iran International)
۰ Baluch cleric arrested, whereabouts unknown (IranWire)
۰ Iran executes three more prisoners, raising 2024 execution toll to 103 (IranWire)
۰ Activists, families of death row prisoners protest outside Tehran prison (Iran International)
۰ Experts deplore the death in custody of victim of arbitrary detention (OHCHR)
Domestic issues
۰ Iranians take to social media to demand Pezeshkian’s resignation (Iran International)
۰ Public anger rises as Iran's economy worsens (RFE/RL)
۰ Iran loosens import restrictions on foreign cars and iPhones, trying to mask its economic woes (AP)
۰ Suicide rates up 51 percent, official report shows (IranWire)
۰ 37-year-old woman kidnapped, murdered, and burned (IranWire)
۰ Student fatally stabbed near Tehran University campus (IranWire)
۰ Airlines struggle as some operate with just six aircraft, lawmaker reveals (IranWire)
Foreign policy + security
۰ Exclusive: Inside Trump’s Iran fear (Axios)
۰ Iran leader Khamenei meets top Hamas leaders in Tehran, state TV says (Reuters)
۰ Iran is rearming its missile program and a ship of supplies just arrived from China, Western sources say (CNN)
۰ Syria’s interim FM says Russia-Iran ties to Assad are an open wound after war (Asharq Al-Awsat)
۰ Child soldiers: The untold story of Iran-Iraq’s frontline children (BBC)
۰ Iran and Oman military chiefs meet in Tehran for defense talks (Bloomberg)
۰ Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi to travel to Oman (Mehr News Agency)
۰ Algeria, Iran discuss holding Islamic ministerial conference on Gaza (MEMO)
۰ Iran forges deeper ties with Sudan in boost to wider influence (Bloomberg)
۰ Border guards rescue 250 stranded Afghan Nationals amid severe snowstorm (Iran Front Page)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ IAEA chief says time running out to reach Iran nuclear deal (Reuters)
۰ Iran president says US 'blocking' Iranians' access to essentials (AFP)
۰ US sanctions strand Iran, Russia oil on tankers, driving up crude costs (Reuters)
۰ India fears impact of Trump’s Iran sanctions on Chabahar port (South China Morning Post)
Diaspora
۰ Helpless in Iran, family of missing Windsor woman searching for answers (CBC)