NOTE: On July 16, I’ll be speaking on a panel at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy about the opportunities and risks of the new presidency. Also, check out my guest essay in the New York Times on the election.
۱/1 Everything you need to know about the outcome
* “Reformists” or “Moderates” describe themselves as individuals who believe in the status quo and reforming the Islamic Republic, while “Principlists” or “Fundamentalists” are what Western media call “hardliners.”
WHAT HAPPENED IN THE SECOND ROUND? The first presidential election, which was neither free nor fair, took place on June 28. According to officials, 40 percent (24.5 million) out of the 61.5 million eligible voted; of those, 1.05 million were invalid ballots—making this presidential election the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic’s forty-five-year history. Since no presidential candidate secured a majority on June 28, a runoff between the top two candidates—reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili—was held on July 5 to determine Iran’s next president. Official numbers said that about 50 percent (30.5 million) partook in the second round with 54.7 percent (16.3 million) electing Pezeshkian as president, while his contender received 45.2 percent (13.5 million) of the vote. Videos from across the country showed empty polling stations (X/X). This time, there were only a little over half a million (2 percent) invalid ballots.
On July 8, the Guardian Council—a twelve-member vetting body of which six are hand-picked by the Supreme Leader—validated the election result and issued a certificate of appointment for the president-elect (IranWire).
The president-elect will be inaugurated on Sunday, July 28 (Iran International).
WHO RAN?
Saeed Jalili / hardliner / Supreme Leader’s representative in the Supreme National Security Council and former nuclear negotiator (ran in 2013, 2021), sanctioned by Canada – 45.2 percent (13.5 million)
Masoud Pezeshkian / reformist / member of parliament representing Tabriz and former health minister, surgeon – 54.7 percent (16.3 million), president-elect
WHAT ABOUT THE BOYCOTT? During the first round, Iranians made it clear through a boycott that they don’t want an Islamic Republic. And while officials claimed higher turnout, videos from across the country showed empty polling stations (X/X). Among those who boycotted both election rounds were dissidents, activists, and bereaved families of slain protesters, including the family of Mahsa Jina Amini, whose death at the hands of the so-called morality police prompted the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom uprising (Iran International). Green Movement leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard, who have been under house arrest since 2011, sat out the vote while their counterpart Mehdi Karroubi partook in the election (Iran International). Interestingly, Pezeshkian supporters reportedly claimed Mousavi had endorsed the candidate (IranWire).
Some Iranians who had boycotted the first round voted in the second round for Pezeskhian—the “lesser evil”—out of fear of a Jalili presidency, which could result in a more dire economic situation and confrontation with the West. These Iranians believe Pezeskhian can marginally improve the country’s situation. “I’m going to vote, because if I don’t vote, the Islamic Republic won’t be toppled, but it will help elect a hardline president that I do not accept,” said a 24-year-old fashion designer in Tehran (New York Times). While a 37-year-old businessman in Tehran said, “We kept going back and forth on what to do, and at the end we decided we must try to stop Jalili, otherwise we will suffer more.” (New York Times) Upon news of Pezeskhian’s win, videos on social media showed small groups of his supporters celebrating in various cities (Reuters).

For the Iranians who boycotted, the candidates were two sides of the same coin because, in their view, the key decisionmaker is Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. I wrote in the New York Times about how much of Iranian Gen Z didn’t see the difference between Pezeshkian and Jalili because they are the “footmen” of the Supreme Leader and would rather see the geriatric clerical establishment ruling Iran gone.

The hashtag اقلیت_خائن# (“Treacherous Minority”) circulated online, directed at those who intended to participate despite all the blood shed by the clerical establishment with many of the families of slain protesters from the 2022 uprisings and ones before it speaking out.
On the eve of the election, Iran-based activist Bahareh Hedayat, who spent her life advocating for gradual change, appeared on the diaspora satellite channel Iran International to criticize the “elites” for voting in the presidential election (X).
Journalist and political activist Keyvan Samimi decided to vote in the second round, noting, “We are casting a protest vote to save Iran.” (X) Responding to his decision, human rights defender Golrokh Ebrahimi Iraee said from Tehran’s infamous Evin Prison:
“In situations where you should have stood by the people, you stood in the shoes of the oppressors and became an obstacle in the path of liberation.”
On July 10, the Iranian judiciary announced a crackdown on Iranians who boycotted the election (IranWire). The Judiciary spokesman described these as “election violations” and said that they would be treated as a criminal offense. The judiciary has given 3,980 people warnings, arrested 113 (described as “criminals”), summoned 100 individuals, identified 500 Instagram accounts, and filed cases against two Telegram channels for allegedly being involved in calling for sitting out the vote. The arrested were reportedly either released on bail or forced to sign a commitment letter.
Meanwhile, several ballot stations in the United States canceled their voting events under pressure from Iranian-American protesters and activists (VOA).
FYI: On July 10, internet users across Iran experienced slowdowns and disruptions, prompting widespread criticism (IranWire).
HOW DID THE WORLD REACT? Congratulations poured in from the usual suspects, including China, Syria and Russia, but also from Arab neighbors Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (Al Jazeera).
On July 8, upon being asked about the president-elect, the State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said:
“We have no expectation that this election will lead to a fundamental change in Iran’s direction or its policies. At the end of the day, it’s not the president that has the ultimate say over the future of Iran’s policy; it is the Supreme Leader… We have always said that diplomacy is the most effective way to achieve an effective, sustainable solution with regard to Iran’s nuclear program.” (state.gov)
The State Department also said:
“The elections in Iran were not free or fair. As a result, a significant number of Iranians chose not to participate at all… we have no expectation these elections will lead to fundamental changes in Iran’s direction or more respect for the human rights of its citizens.” (Iran International)
Separately, on the topic of reviving nuclear talks, National Security communications advisor John Kirby said:
“No, we’re not in a position where we’re willing to get back to the negotiating table with Iran just based on the fact that they’ve elected a new president.” (White House)
WHAT TO MAKE OF THE NEW PRESIDENT? During his victory speech, the 69-year-old president-elect said that were it not “for the Supreme Leader, [his] name wouldn’t have come out of the ballot box.” (X) Given the trajectory of the Islamic Republic in the past few years with all branches of government hardline-led, a hardline candidate was widely expected to win the presidential election.
But as writer Arash Azizi argues:
“Khamenei has to be aware that the societal base for his regime is only shrinking. The mix of political repression and economic failure has proved unsurprisingly unpopular. A majority of Iranians refused to vote not only in this election but also in the three elections before it, starting in 2020… Khamenei may well have calculated that if he doesn’t change tack, he’ll be due for no end of social explosions… Raisi’s death in a strange helicopter crash on May 19 provided the opening for Khamenei to recalibrate his relationship with the reformists and centrists.” (The Atlantic)
During his campaign, the heart surgeon and long-time member of parliament didn’t make any concrete promises but vowed to “stand against” the so-called morality police and online censorship rules and called for “constructive relations” with the West by returning Iran to the nuclear negotiating table. However, since his win, stories have emerged of his pro-hijab comments over the years.
Some Iranians shared about how, while president of Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, the president-elect imposed “good hijab” on women (X). An Iranian activist now based in Germany explained how Pezeshkian, who was her classmate in medical school, was part of a group of Islamists in Tabriz who violently imposed mandatory hijab on women using knives (Iran International). It’s worth noting that the president-elect once boasted:
“At the time of the revolution, I announced a new dress code… The discussion of hijab hadn’t yet happened… I told them they have to come with a full hijab… I did it in ten days. The cultural revolution started with us!” (The Hill/X)
Some Iranians have also honed in on his time as health minister under reformist President Mohammad Khatami. Pezeshkian was part of the government fact-finding committee of Canadian-Iranian freelance photographer Zahra Kazemi, who was tortured, raped, and died in custody in 2003. Pezeshkian had contradicted the doctor treating her and the family’s statements about the numerous injuries and rape (X). (Read more about Kazemi’s death in this report.)
During the 2009 post-election protests known as the Green Movement, Pezeshkian criticized the crackdown saying, “Do not kill people like a wild animal… When you can, don’t intervene sharply, don’t hit, don’t strike.” (IranWire) The comments reportedly disrupted parliament momentarily. However, he has “often avoided confrontational statements about repression by the Iranian regime.” (Wall Street Journal) On the topic of Mahsa Jina Amini’s death in 2022, in a state interview, he called for an investigation but said it was unclear if she died due to police brutality, which is a widely held view, including by her family and the United Nations Fact-Finding Mission, given the evidence of trauma found on her body.
Pezeshkian has praised the late Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani who was assassinated by the US via drone strike in 2020. He has also honored the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) by wearing their uniform to parliament on one occasion (AP).
The president-elect has said that the Islamic Republic “will try to have friendly relations with all countries except Israel.” (Wall Street Journal) Not surprisingly, upon receiving congratulations from Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, Pezeshkian said:
“The Islamic Republic has always supported the resistance of the people of the region against the illegitimate Zionist regime. I am certain that the resistance movements in the region will not allow this regime to continue its warmongering and criminal policies against the oppressed people of Palestine and other nations of the region.” (Times of Israel)
WHO WILL BE IN THE CABINET? While former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif played a key role in campaigning alongside Pezeshkian and advised the president-elect, it’s unlikely he’ll be part of the new administration. Rumors have circulated that his deputy, Abbas Araqchi, who was also a senior nuclear negotiator, will be tapped in as the new foreign minister (Amwaj.media). Another likely individual to be picked for a top role is former Minister of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi. According to a leak, Pezeshkian “seeks to hire younger faces, technocrats, and an unprecedented number of women.” (Amwaj.media) Candidates must be approved by the hardline-dominated parliament.
Jalili, who lost to Pezeshkian, has also made it clear that he will be monitoring and holding the new administration to account:
“We consider it our duty to help the three branches of government, including the new administration, stay on the path of the revolution and serve the country.” (IranWire)
MEDIA COVERAGE SCRUTINY Much of the Western media focus—i.e., the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, and the New York Times—on Pezeshkian’s win was centered around the messaging that he would bring real change to Iran as a “reformist.” Not surprisingly, this upset many Iranians inside Iran and in the diaspora (X), given the realities on the ground and the fact that much of the power rests in the hands of Khamenei.
Human rights lawyer Gissou Nia wrote on X:
“Why am I angry about the misrepresentations in global media about the ‘reform’ the Islamic Republic's new president will supposedly bring? [Because] it focuses the energy on a system that has proved time & time again it is unwilling or unable to reform.”
A student from Karaj:
“The media coverage on the doctor’s views, that he will be going against the hijab law, or is anti-mandatory hijab rules, is bullsh*t. If anything, we Iranians are smarter, more aware than before and we have done our research. We are not falling for fake propaganda that he is against the hijab. Only you are fooled by it, not us. This shouldn’t even be a question.” (The Guardian).
۲/2 Iran encourages Gaza war protests in US to stoke outrage and distrust
۳/3 Death sentence issued for labor activist Sharifeh Mohammadi
۴/4 Workers protest in 10+ cities over unpaid wages, working conditions
۵/5 Marshall Islands-flagged tanker released after over a year
۶/6 New UN special rapporteur on human rights announced
۷/7 Naval destroyer sinks in port while being repaired
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human rights
۰ Two sentenced to death for armed robbery in Iran (IranWire)
۰ Iran sentences blinded protester to 31 months in prison (IranWire)
۰ Lawyer sentenced to nearly two years in prison (IranWire)
۰ Iran detains an outspoken lawyer who criticized 2022 crackdown following Mahsa Amini’s death (AP)
۰ Four Kurdish teachers sentenced to prison for activism in Marivan (IranWire)
۰ Ex-political prisoner Soleimani reports death threats from Iran agents (IranWire)
۰ Mother of slain protester reports destruction of son's tombstone (IranWire)
۰ Iranian-Norwegian athlete detained in Iran during family visit (IranWire)
۰ Iran plotting to keep dissident rapper behind bars say advocates (Iran International)
۰ She was the target of an Iranian assassination plot. She now lives in its shadow (NPR)
Domestic issues
۰ Mass poisoning on presidential election day hidden by authorities (Iran International)
۰ Iran shuts offices as ‘hell’ heatwave approaches (IranWire)
۰ Tehran police close Turkish Airlines office after its employees defy Iran’s headscarf law (AP)
Foreign policy + security
۰ Iran imposes sanctions on 11 US officials over suppressing pro-Palestine student protests (PressTV)
۰ Iranian-born Norwegian man convicted of Oslo LGBT festival attack gets 30 years (AP)
۰ Israeli opposition party head appears to urge nuclear action to stop Iran’s nuclear program (Times of Israel)
۰ Will the Iran-Israel confrontation reach the Balkans? (Amwaj.media)
۰ Yemen Houthi rebels fired an Iranian missile at Norwegian-flagged ship, debris analyzed by US shows (AP)
۰ How Iran’s ruler viewed Russia and the Caucasus 150 years ago (RFERL)
۰ The Afghan women rebuilding shattered dreams in Iran (The Guardian)
۰ Undeterred by 4 decades of US sanctions, Iran rolls out red carpet for Southeast Asian tourists (Malaysia Now)
Iran deal + sanctions
۰ Germany seeks EU counterterrorism sanctions on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (Anadolu Agency)
Kurdish oil smuggling to Iran flourishes (Reuters)
Economy + trade
۰ Iran sells crude oil to 17 countries, says oil minister (Iran International)
Sports
۰ Iran anti-doping body sanctions 3 athletes (Mehr News Agency)