A game of chicken
July 31, 2026
Salam reader,
I left off last week’s newsletter with the sense that an escalation against Iran was imminent. Well, it nearly happened on the night of July 24, but President Donald Trump ultimately decided against it in order to give diplomacy another chance (Axios).
Apparently, Commander of US Central Command Admiral Brad Cooper had been pushing for a two-week intensive air campaign intended to cripple Iran’s missile capability, which the president ultimately decided against (Wall Street Journal). That may have been due, in part, to the fact that the United States is running low on air defense interceptors. (The Pentagon is seeking an additional $18.2 billion for replacements, according to Bloomberg.)
On July 28, Tehran unexpectedly launched ballistic missiles at a US military base in Jordan (Axios). Earlier this month, the killing of two US service members at a US base in Jordan prompted Trump to intensify attacks on Iran over 13 nights. While it may seem odd that Tehran would do this, it was an effort to reset the chessboard and set negotiations on Tehran’s terms, not Washington’s. Tehran also likely calculates that, with the US midterm elections approaching, growing opposition to the war in Congress and among the American public, and rising gasoline prices, Trump will eventually seek an exit—or blink first. US officials told CNN that “Trump has grown frustrated at Tehran’s unwillingness to bend to his demands, leading to angry meetings behind the scenes and expletive-laced phone calls.”
But on the night of July 29, the United States resumed a “heavy wave” of airstrikes on Iran (Axios). This also included Saudi Arabia officially entering the war with airstrikes on Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq in retaliation for attacks on Saudi oil facilities earlier this week (the US also participated) (New York Times). Riyadh technically entered the war when Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates secretly carried out retaliatory strikes on Iran in May. An anonymous US official claimed that the strikes killed about 20 Iranian advisors tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and knocked out missile and drone sites belonging to the militias (New York Times). The bodies of five IRGC members were reportedly returned to Iran (IranWire).
Unsurprisingly, the cycle of tit-for-tat strikes between the United States and Iran continued on July 30 (AP). At least three Iranian civilians, a couple and their child, and one Kuwaiti worker were killed this week (Al Jazeera/X).
As the New York Times observed:
“The expansion of fighting in the Middle East appears to complicate the possibility of the Trump administration extricating itself from the unpopular war, with midterm elections now less than 100 days away. It also threatens to worsen the global oil shock and drive higher inflation.”
There are growing concerns that the conflict could turn into another forever war.
Reuters published a deep dive on former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, including a video interview with the son of the ousted shah. Over the years, some observers have drawn comparisons between Pahlavi and Iraqi politician Ahmed Chalabi, but that comparison isn’t fair. Unlike Chalabi, Pahlavi retains a genuine support base inside Iran and remains the country’s most popular opposition figure. New polling released this week by the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMAAN) found: “Reza Pahlavi continues to receive positive evaluations from a substantial share of society: about 45 percent said their view of him had been positive before the protests and the 39-day war and remained positive.”
(While polling under authoritarian regimes is inherently difficult, GAMAAN Director Ammar Maleki addressed criticism of his organization’s methodology.)
The reality is that Pahlavi had a significant moment during the January anti-regime uprising, when he called on Iranians to protest on January 8 and 9 at 8 pm. New footage continues to emerge from that period before the chilling massacre of protesters, showing unprecedented numbers taking to the streets in response to his call—some carrying his photo, others waving the de facto lion-and-sun flag, and many chanting, “Long live the shah” and “This is the last battle; Pahlavi will return.”
In recent years, the former crown prince has faced criticism, much of which is reflected in the Reuters piece. While some suggest that the war caused Pahlavi’s momentum to cool, the evidence doesn’t support the argument made by some of his fiercest critics that his political relevance or career is effectively over.
The poll also found that 15 percent of Iran’s population participated in the January anti-regime uprising. The top reason respondents gave for taking to the streets was “dissatisfaction with the Islamic Republic” (71 percent), followed by “high prices, inflation, and corruption” (62 percent), and “Reza Pahlavi’s call to protest” (about 55 percent). By comparison, only 10 percent said they participated because of “Donald Trump’s declaration of support for the protesters.”
The poll also offers a wealth of insight into Iranian views of the war. Some 42 percent considered the Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion to be “military aggression against Iran,” while nearly the same share disagreed with that assessment. About 40 percent viewed the US and Israel-led war as a form of “humanitarian intervention” (R2P), while roughly 48 percent rejected that interpretation. Unsurprisingly, Iranians identified “high prices, inflation, and economic pressures” as their top concern (76 percent), followed by “the survival of the current regime and continued repression of dissent” (60 percent).
Meanwhile, the war against the Iranian people continues. According to the Center for Human Rights in Iran, since January, at least 60 teachers and teachers’ union activists “have been arrested, forcibly disappeared, prosecuted under national security charges, imprisoned, and subjected to solitary confinement and denial of medical care in an effort to silence independent organizing.”
Continuing its campaign of intimidation against anti-regime Iranians, the Islamic Republic publicly executed two young men on July 28. Abolfazl Sepahi, 23, and Amirhossein Safari, 28, both associated with the January anti-regime uprising, were hanged in the same square in the central city of Isfahan where they had allegedly protested. In the lead-up to the executions, which took place in the middle of the night, people gathered at the site, chanting “Dishonorable” and booing (New York Times/RFERL). Security forces responded by firing paintballs, tear gas, and live rounds. The fact that people showed up to protest a public execution in the middle of the night, once word began to spread, is telling of how the embers of anger continue to burn beneath the surface. An online petition opposing the death penalty gathered roughly 500,000 signatures within a day.
Alireza Sepahi, 25, another protester associated with the January anti-regime uprising who had also been sentenced to death and was scheduled to be executed alongside the other two men, suffered a stroke and was hospitalized just two days before the executions (HRANA).
The men were among at least 12 young men sentenced to death for allegedly killing four police officers during the January anti-regime protests in Isfahan. They were denied due process and subjected to forced confessions (IHRNGO).
An unnamed lawyer and human rights activist in Iran explained the logic:
“After Trump claimed that he had stopped executions in Iran and that the Iranians had promised him they would halt them, the Islamic Republic instead accelerated the executions… The way they organized this public execution raises questions. By holding it in public, they clearly wanted people to witness what they were doing… Ultimately, the main goal is to frighten the public and protesters, while responding to demands for revenge from the regime’s support base. These acts of state violence may frighten people for a short time, but, as we have seen over the past five decades, people soon find the courage to protest again and again…” (France24)
Similar comments were made by Mahya Ostovar, founder of the Iranian Democratic Diaspora Network in Ireland:
“These executions should also serve as a warning that the real war in Iran has never been the one dominating international headlines. The real conflict is the ongoing struggle between the Iranian people and the Islamic Republic. That struggle is far from over.” (New York Times)
Most analysts are focused on the Iran war, but the truth is that the country is still very much capable of imploding from within because of the Islamic Republic’s terrible decision-making…
More soon,
Holly
P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.