Majority of Iranians dissatisfied, water worries—and more
The Iranist for the week of November 14, 2025
Read my latest analysis on why the US needs to do more to protect Iranian dissidents.
THE هفت/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:
۱/1 Sounding the alarm about the water crisis
In recent days, Iranian authorities have begun rationing water across several districts in Tehran. Water is being cut off in the evenings, and residents are urged to limit daytime consumption (RFERL). Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi warned that households exceeding government usage standards will face fines and supply cuts (IranWire). He claimed that some Tehran households are using up to 145 times the recommended levels.
Most of the five major dams supplying the capital—the Lar, Latyan, Karaj (Amir Kabir), Taleqan, and Mamloo—are at extremely low levels, averaging at just 10 percent capacity. Tehran has recorded no rainfall at all, a first in a century (New York Times). Earlier this month, Tehran water company director Behzad Parsa cautioned that the capital’s main source of drinking water could run out in 15 days (AFP).
Iran is currently in its fifth consecutive year of drought. Decades of poor water management by the Islamic Republic, including the overdevelopment of urban areas and excessive dam construction, have been exacerbated by climate change, contributing to the dire water crisis the country is currently facing.
Officials have entertained cloud seeding as a potential mitigation strategy, but the necessary cloud moisture levels—at least 50 percent—are currently absent. Authorities, including a grand ayatollah, have called on the public to pray for rain (Iran International/New York Times). One cleric blamed the drought on the prevalence of women without mandatory hijab (Iran International).
Kaveh Madani, former deputy head of Iran’s Department of Environment and now director of United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health, said:
“The level of their warnings is too low compared to the reality on the ground. The government is being too cautious because it doesn’t want to stress the public and upset people even more.” (RFERL)
The water crisis extends beyond Tehran. Nineteen of Iran’s major dams—10 percent of the country’s reservoirs—have completely dried up, and more than 20 others are below 5 percent capacity (RFERL). Water in the northeastern city of Mashhad has dropped below 3 percent (AFP). Mashhad water company director Hossein Esmaeilian said, “The current situation shows that managing water use is no longer merely a recommendation—it has become a necessity.”
Last week, President Masoud Pezeshkian called the water crisis “alarming,” warning:
“If it doesn’t rain, we will have to start restricting water supplies in Tehran next month. If the drought continues, we will run out of water and be forced to evacuate the city,” referring to Tehran (Anadolu Agency).
Meanwhile, on November 11, reports circulated on social media that 74 bodies with their hands bound were discovered in the dried-up Karaj dam (X). According to social media, the reports have since been removed.
۲/2 IAEA unable to verify status of near weapons-grade uranium
۳/3 Domestic poll says 92 percent of Iranians dissatisfied
On November 11, President Masoud Pezeshkian said:
“The pillar of the country’s tent is the Supreme Leader... We can disagree with one another, but there is someone who ultimately makes the decisions. During the war I had no fear for myself, but I was worried that, God forbid, if something happened to the leader we would turn on one another—there would be no need for Israel to intervene... We must value him and stand firmly behind him.” (Iran International)
۴/4 Military personnel declare support for ousted monarchy
On November 12, a video went viral of two men in army uniforms holding the de facto flag of Iran featuring the lion and sun at a Tehran metro station (Iran International). The audio from their speakers is hard to decipher—some social media users claimed it was a speech by ousted Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The men were arrested by plainclothes officers and security forces, as seen in a second video filmed from another angle (X). In the footage, one of the men can be heard urging people in various cities to protest. As the pair was violently detained, bystanders tried to intervene with one woman screaming, “Let them go!” and one of the men in uniform yelling, “Long live Reza Shah!
Jamaran News Agency later reported that the men were wearing imitation air defense uniforms and were detained for “disrupting public order.” (Iran International) Diaspora outlets have been unable to independently verify whether the men are actually members of the Iranian armed forces.
Some social media users have identified the two detained individuals as “Colonel Ebrahim Aghaie and Second Lieutenant Mohammad Reza Mohammadzadeh from the Army’s Air Defense Group.” (Iran International)
On the same day, another video emerged of a man identifying himself as Colonel Ebrahim Aghaei Kamazani—the same name mentioned above—standing at a podium and pledging allegiance to former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi (Iran International). In the video, he declares:
“The fact is that we, the people of Iran, have handed our country over to the enemy for 47 years. People of Iran, come to Iran’s aid. The criminal regime has done nothing but create poverty, vice, and Iran’s destruction. We, too, are playing a role in the country’s destruction through our indifference. Rise up on November 25. People, hear your son’s voice. Long live the Shah. Long live Iran.”
Several other videos have surfaced, though their dates and authenticity have not been verified (X/X/X/X/X). Similar clips purportedly featuring Iranian police and military personnel have circulated in the past, typically with the officers’ faces obscured. It’s important to note that in July, the former crown prince stated that more than 50,000 Iranian officials registered via a QR code advertised on Iran International to coordinate the ousting of the Islamic Republic (Politico).
A video of Iranian naval officers aboard a ship holding the de facto flag was determined to be a deepfake, according BBC Persian forensics reporter Farzad Seifikaran (X). Some on social media have speculated that fabricated videos may be part of an intelligence operation aimed at identifying anti-regime Iranians or discrediting Pahlavi.
In the age of artificial intelligence, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish real material from fabricated content for the average social media user. What is certain, however, is that anti-regime sentiment remains at a historic high, as the country is in a state of uncertainty—from the clerical establishment to the people—about its future.
۵/5 Slain WLF protester’s aunt receives flogging sentence
۶/6 Contractor accidentally leaks underground military site
۷/7 Imprisoned British couple goes on hunger strike
OTHER اخبار/NEWS THAT MADE HEADLINES:
Human Rights
۰ Victim of child marriage faces execution in Iran (CHRI)
۰ Prisoner dies by suicide in western Iran prison (IranWire)
۰ Aunt of slain protester Nika Shakarami received flogging sentence (X)
۰ Two political prisoners collapse after 17 days on hunger strike (IranWire)
۰ Protester blinded in 2022 moved to intelligence center for new interrogation (IranWire)
۰ Christian convert broke spine, denied care in Iran prison - rights group (Iran International)
۰ Activist sentenced to 9 years for alleged support of Israel (IranWire)
۰ Mother of student activist arrested by intelligence agents (IranWire)
۰ Over 200 political prisoners at Evin prison refuse food in protest (IranWire)
۰ Religious minorities face rising online hate campaign (IranWire)
۰ Canadian woman pleads for release of Baha’i kin detained in Iran (Iran International)
۰ Death of activist who burned picture of Supreme Leader causes outcry (The Guardian)
۰ Activist urges unity among opposition groups of Iran, Russia, China (Iran International)
Domestic Issues
۰ Iran’s dual reality: As veil restrictions ease, political crackdown deepens (Reuters)
۰ Iran hardliners take Khamenei hint as green light for hijab crackdown (Iran International)
۰ Women motorcycle riders surge across Iranian cities (IranWire)
۰ A murder in Robat Karim: How Iran’s justice system let a killer escape (IranWire)
۰ Fawad Shams, journalist and political analyst, ends his life (Abdi Media)
۰ Firefighter sets himself ablaze over four months of unpaid wages (IranWire)
۰ Student dies after self-immolation following kiosk demolition in Iran (IranWire)
۰ Nurses strike for third day over unpaid wages, poor conditions (IranWire)
Foreign Policy + Security
۰ ‘It feels like i’m in a nightmare’: Inside the first deportation flight to Iran (New York Times)
۰ Iran seeks ‘peaceful nuclear deal’ with US, official says (Reuters)
۰ Pezeshkian says Tehran seeks peace, but will not bow to coercion (Reuters)
۰ US lawmakers demand answers from Trump administration over Chinese chemical shipments to Iran following CNN reporting (CNN)
۰ Iran dismisses US accusation of plot to kill Israeli ambassador in Mexico (Al Jazeera)
۰ Senior official says Israel aims to topple Iranian regime by end of Trump’s term (Times of Israel)
۰ Netanyahu says Iran remains a threat but was diminished in war (Iran International)
۰ In latest spy case, Israeli paid by Iran to photograph Ramat Gan missile impact site (Times of Israel)
۰ Iran seizes tanker in Strait of Hormuz, US official says, as tensions remain high in region (AP)
۰ Iran claims missile power now ‘far surpasses’ pre-war levels after Israeli bombardment (Fox News)
۰ Iran showcases military hardware in new exhibition (NBC News)
۰ As Iraqis vote for a parliament, US presses to rid country of Iran’s influence (New York Times)
۰ From sanctions to blacklists: The US campaign to curb Iran’s reach in Iraq (Kurdistan 24)
۰ Qatar’s prime minister speaks with Iran’s foreign minister about Gaza ceasefire (Times of Israel)
۰ Iran-backed hackers steal and post plans for Australia’s new $7 billion infantry fighting vehicles (Sky News)
Iran Deal + Sanctions
۰ The dangerous stalemate over Iran’s nuclear program (New York Times)
۰ Expert says Iran accelerating construction of underground nuclear site after US strikes (RFERL)
۰ Disrupting Iran’s transnational ballistic missile and UAV procurement networks (State.gov)
۰ US sanctions official says time is right to cut Iran’s Hezbollah funding (Reuters)