Apparently, the ceasefire is indefinite, at least according to President Donald Trump (CBS News). Since the war began, the president has extended deadlines five times (CNN). That helps explain why the Iranians haven’t conceded to his terms: they appear to be counting on him to blink first—which, arguably, he already has on numerous occasions—alongside the fact that the Islamic Republic is an ideological regime unwilling to bend the knee.

On April 21, Vice President JD Vance was expected to depart for Islamabad to make a deal in writing, but the trip never materialized. The initial green light from Tehran the day before had turned into a red light (Axios/Wall Street Journal). As the April 22 ceasefire deadline inched closer, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said it would not enter negotiations until the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz was lifted (X).

But there’s another side to the story: the latest round of talks reportedly fell through because Tehran never responded to the US’ broad list that they wanted the Iranians to agree to before resuming negotiations (CNN). Instead, silence.

According to CNN:

“…Trump’s top aides believe a main reason they didn’t hear back was fractures within the current Iranian leadership, their understanding based partly on dispatches from the Pakistani intermediaries… The administration’s sense is that the Iranians don’t have consensus on their position or how much to empower the negotiators on uranium enrichment and the country’s current stockpile of enriched uranium—a major sticking point in the peace talks. Part of that complicating factor, the US believes, is whether the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is giving his subordinates clear directions—or if they’re simply having to guess what he wants without specific instruction.”

If you’re starting to wonder that Khamenei Junior is an AI-tollah after all, given the AI-generated imagery of him in the new role, the New York Times reports he’s alive but recovering from serious injuries:

“Access to him is extremely difficult and limited now... Senior commanders of the Guards and senior government officials do not visit him, fearing that Israel may trace them to him and kill him… Though Khamenei was gravely wounded, he is mentally sharp and engaged… One leg was operated on three times, and he is awaiting a prosthetic. He had surgery on one hand and is slowly regaining function. His face and lips have been burned severely, making it difficult for him to speak… eventually, he will need plastic surgery.” (New York Times)

He has also reportedly avoided recording messages to prevent appearing weak. Instead, all of Khamenei’s communications are reportedly “handwritten, sealed in envelopes and relayed via a human chain from one trusted courier to the next, who travel on highways and back roads, in cars and on motorcycles until they reach his hide-out. His guidance on issues snakes back the same way.” (New York Times)

On April 21, President Trump wrote on Truth Social:

“Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so… we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other…”

Reports are increasingly highlighting these internal fractures. One example is the confusion over whether the Strait of Hormuz was open or closed: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced its reopening, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly refused to implement the decision and even attacked him publicly (Axios). These divisions have become apparent after the death of Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, whose replacement, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, is reportedly less effective at coordinating between the political and military factions (Axios).

Senior Iranian officials seem to have taken note, especially of Trump’s comments. In what appears to be a first, several posted messages on Twitter emphasizing unity, including Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and other officials (X/X/X/Iran International).

While coordinated messaging of this kind is unusual, it may also reflect Tehran’s broader effort to shape the war narrative—something it has already been doing through Iranian embassy accounts and Lego videos. This is arguably part of yet another effort to undermine the narrative amplified by Trump’s comments.

Another example of narrative distortion emerged when the US president and State Department highlighted eight Iranian women who were all alleged to have been sentenced to death (Reuters). The women—Bita Hemmati, Diana Taherabadi, Ensieh Nejati, Ghazal Ghalandari, Golnaz Naraghi, Mahboubeh Shabani, Panah Movahedi and Venus Hosseininejad—are real and were arrested during the January anti-regime uprising, according to the Center for Human Rights in Iran (The National). However, their sentences differed, and only one—Hemmati—was sentenced to death. Additionally, their real photos were AI-enhanced or modified, according to WITNESS’ Mahsa Alimardani, which raised questions about the authenticity of them all together (TechPolicy.press) As The Verge noted, this case is a “mingling of fact and fiction into a fuzzy distortion that fuels an endless disputation of real human rights violations,” and plays into the Islamic Republic’s hands (as seen below).

Ceasefire talks appear to be up in the air, though the Iranian foreign minister is set to visit Pakistan this weekend (AP). US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Islamabad in the coming days to meet him (X). However, Ghalibaf may not attend—which means the vice president won’t either, according to reports (X). Interestingly, there are rumors swirling that the parliamentary speaker has resigned from the negotiating team, though numerous officials have denied it (X/X).

Meanwhile, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, though there’s some confusion on what the blockade entails. On April 23, the IRGC seized two cargo ships and brought them to Bandar Abbas port—an action the US says wasn’t part of the blockade (Reuters). The move appears to be retaliation for the seizure of an Iran-flagged cargo ship on April 19. At the same time, Tehran has managed to get at least 34 tankers past the blockade, some carrying Iranian oil, which isn’t surprising given that it has one of the best sanctions evasion playbooks globally (Financial Times/Lloyd’s List).

The Iranian Navy is also laying mines in the Strait, which could take up to six months to clear, per a Pentagon assessment (Axios/Washington Post). US officials say that Tehran has more military capabilities than the US government publicly admitted (CBS News). If ceasefire talks collapse, the US military is reportedly developing plans to target small fast attack boats, minelaying vessels, and other asymmetric assets that helped Tehran shut down the Strait (CNN).

As the blockade continues and the fate of negotiations remains uncertain, ordinary Iranians are struggling to get by. Asr-e Iran newspaper estimates that up to four million jobs have been lost or affected by the war and the state-imposed internet shutdown (BBC News). Also, Bloomberg News’ analysis of damage clusters in Tehran found that 2,816 buildings were hit—about one-third linked to military sites, while the majority were industrial, civilian, or commercial.

The internet shutdown since February 28 has remained a major source of frustration for Iranians. Some fear it could become permanent, especially with proposals for “Internet Pro,” a tiered system that would only grant access to businesses and wealthier users (Iran International). Iranians are now buying expensive VPNs from questionable dealers (often built through access to government-tiered internet), with many spending most of their monthly income for small amounts of gigabytes of access (X).

An Iran-based journalist wrote the following:

“Open this cursed internet already. Thank God you’ve also pushed our economic situation to the point where we can’t even afford your multimillion toman VPNs anymore,” referring to the Islamic Republic. (X)

Iranians are still finding ways to communicate, but they’re no longer connected to the world as they once were—and those voices risk being lost...

More soon,

Holly

P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.

For those of us with friends and family in Iran, it’s been a difficult time—not just because of the war, but because of the country’s fifth state-imposed internet shutdown, which began on February 28 and is now the longest globally (X). Rarely do the single check marks on messaging apps like WhatsApp turn into two. Sometimes messages come through from loved ones, only to revert to one check mark when we try to respond. Some have resorted to calling from Iran via landline, an exceedingly expensive option in this dire economy, which, of course, the Islamic Republic profits from. Only this week were diaspora Iranians finally able to place calls to Iran. Before, communication had been one-way (X). Iranians have also just regained access to Google.

Journalist Elahe Mohammadi, who reported on the funeral of Mahsa Jina Amini and was imprisoned for it, wrote:

“Yesterday, after fifty-something days, Google finally connected barely, and with difficulty. The news spread quickly; some people were happy, thinking it might signal that other restrictions could be lifted.

But a moment later, you catch yourself: how did things get to the point where people have to get excited over a half-working connection to Google? Over opening a few simple links for the most basic right of access?

The disaster isn’t just the filtering and restrictions; it’s that they’re trying to lower people’s expectations so much that even the smallest things feel like a favor. That’s the ultimate disregard for people’s dignity. And they were talking about solidarity and unity!

P.S. This tweet was written using one gig of data bought for 600,000 tomans (a lot of money in Iran), and I don’t even know if it will go through.” (X)

The Islamic Republic claims these measures are in the name of national security, but in reality, they are about controlling the narrative (read this piece to learn more). The clerical establishment has granted selective Internet access to Iranian officials as well as whitelisted journalists and influencers—more commonly referred to as “white SIM card” holders. That’s why they can appear seamlessly on Western media channels and post on social media, while someone like Mohammadi struggles just to get online and share a single post.

The Internet shutdown has ramifications far beyond communication. In my 2022 report, Iranians on #SocialMedia, I noted that there were 11 million digital businesses, most of them reliant on Instagram, which also helped empower Iranian women to achieve greater financial independence.

Iran-based journalist Zahra Keshvari wrote:

“In this war, many people lost their jobs. The digital economy was completely destroyed. Many small rural businesses and small towns are dependent on the internet. Many female heads of household make a living by selling their handicrafts and products in virtual spaces. Have you ever thought about how these people get by?” (X)

When discussing the internet, I’d be remiss not to revisit the Islamic Republic’s online propaganda. This Verge piece aptly explains How Iran out-sh*posted the White House:

“The Lego brainrot feels true to a real global constituency primed to despise America for all kinds of reasons. Iran’s regime has ‘created its identity around being a representative for the oppressed, being a representative for the global majority,’ says [Mahsa] Alimardani [of WITNESS]. The war set up a ‘perfect propaganda moment for them, where they are actually in a position where they’re being attacked.’ For over four decades, she says, the regime’s ideology and politics have revolved around the notion that the evil American empire and Israel are victimizing Iran. Now, that message has never been more on the nose.”

That message resonates with some, particularly in the Global South. The Islamic Republic sees itself as the rebels in Star Wars, with the United States as the Empire. But there’s an inherent contradiction when the regime claims to be the champion of the oppressed while repressing its own people—as seen with the unprecedented massacre in January—and also denying them access to the rest of the world. The studios behind Akhbar Enfejari (“Explosive News”) acknowledged working with the regime, which came as little surprise (BBC News). YouTube removed the studio’s page—though some might argue free speech concerns.

The Internet blackout may not last much longer, though there’s chatter based on an alleged leaked document that it could become permanent (X). At the same time, reports suggest a potential deal to end the war may be in the works following last week’s negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan.

On April 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said:

“In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.” (X)

President Donald Trump echoed a similar sentiment on Truth Social, writing that:

“THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED…”

This is significant, as roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through the Strait. At the same time, an estimated 90 percent of the Iranian economy depends on international trade by sea, and the country exports about 1.5 million barrels per day, earning roughly $140 million (CNN/Axios).

Trump also posted, “The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear ‘Dust,’ created by our great B2 Bombers - No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form…” (X) But as Axios journalist Barak Ravid noted, “It’s Iranian frozen money so it doesnt need to exchange hands.”

Axios reports that the United States and Iran are attempting to end the war through a three-page memorandum of understanding (MOU)—a document far shorter than the 150-page Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the first Trump administration withdrew from in 2018 and contained extensive details. One reported provision is that the US would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran giving up at least some of its 440 kg of highly enriched uranium—a proposal being described as “cash-for-uranium.”

The two sides are also considering a “voluntary” moratorium on nuclear enrichment. The US has pushed for 20 years, while Iran is reportedly seeking a shorter timeline of three to five years and may agree to transfer part of its enriched uranium to a third country (Axios /Reuters). According to two Iranian sources (one is a senior official), if an agreement is reached, “the two sides are expected to have 60 days to negotiate ​a final deal, which would require involvement of experts and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).” (Reuters) The sources also said Tehran is seeking a timetable for the lifting of multilateral sanctions.

On April 16, President Trump said he might travel to Pakistan if a deal to end the war was signed there, adding that another round of talks could take place this weekend (New York Times).

The Iranian people aren’t part of these negotiations, but they should be. During the Islamabad talks, the United States could have pushed for human rights benchmarks such as turning the internet back on, a moratorium on executions, and releasing political prisoners such as Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi, who is in critical condition after suffering a heart attack in prison last month (France24).

Unfortunately, this war has left the Iranian people worse off, and as the Wall Street Journal reports, with “a militarized Iran ruled by a younger, hardline leader where the Revolutionary Guard plays an even more dominant role.” Given that Trump promised “help is on its way” and is now planning to make a deal with the same regime that massacred them in January, it’s in US national security interests not to alienate much of the Iranian people, who are arguably one of the most pro-American populations in the world.

More soon,

Holly

P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.

Salam reader,

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