Reading the tea leaves, it seems the United States is preparing to escalate the war—perhaps even this weekend. The Memorandum of Understanding—more like misunderstanding—is dead, though both the US and Iran continue to signal that they remain open to negotiations, even as US strikes entered their thirteenth consecutive night on July 23 (New York Times/X). Tehran has continued with attacks targeting Arab states housing US military bases, resulting in the death of four US soldiers this week (ABC News/CBS News).

Earlier this month, Bahrain and Kuwait secretly struck sites inside Iran for the first time (Wall Street Journal). The United Arab Emirates reportedly provided intelligence on targets and defensive air cover—a sign of growing Arab cooperation against Tehran. On July 22, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels entered the fight by attacking two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea as part of a new blockade targeting Saudi-linked ships (BBC News). (Read this Reuters exclusive detailing how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps supplied the Houthis additional missiles and equipment earlier this month).

On July 23, Tehran reportedly rejected the latest US ceasefire proposal, which Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi was said to have delivered to Iran, according to Iranian officials (New York Times). Iraqi officials denied the account. President Donald Trump appears to be losing patience with the Iranians, which suggests why he is increasingly inclined toward military escalation. He told Axios’ Barak Ravid on July 23:

“I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it.” (Axios)

The Wall Street Journal reported:

“The president in recent days has grown skeptical that negotiations with Iran can produce a lasting peace, according to people familiar with the matter. A senior administration official said Trump believes that the only thing Iran understands is military force, adding that he was in ‘revenge mode’ against Tehran. The president, the official said, sees few good options besides continuing strikes.”

A day prior, on July 22, Trump posted on Truth Social:

“From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran...” (X)

(Attacking civilian infrastructure is considered a violation of international humanitarian law.)

On the same day, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded:

“Our defense doctrine is clear: eye for an eye. Any aggression against Iran, including our infrastructure, will compel a powerful and decisive response. Those who contribute to such aggression, whatever the kind of support, will also be considered as legitimate targets.” (X)

(If you want insight into Araghchi’s thinking, his recent interview with state-affiliated interviewer Javad Mogoei is worth a watch with English subtitles. I found his comments on the January anti-regime uprising especially revealing even though he whitewashed it. Most strikingly, Mogoei acknowledged that protesters briefly took control of the northeastern holy city of Mashhad for several hours.)

The following day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio fired back, saying the president’s policy was “A head for an eye.” (X/New York Post)

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected in Washington to attend the late Senator Lindsey Graham’s wake on July 29 and to meet Trump the day before. The visit will provide an opportunity to discuss the Iran war and potential next steps (Fox News).

Interestingly, Roman Gofman, the new director of Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad, visited Washington two weeks ago and met with his American counterpart for talks on the war and Iran’s nuclear program (Axios). It was his first US visit since taking on the role.

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At least two embassies in Tehran—the United Kingdom and France—have evacuated their staff this week. Additionally, the German embassy is operating on an emergency-only basis with limited staff (Iran International). Numerous airlines have also suspended or canceled flights across parts of the Middle East (New Arab). In my view, all of this is another sign that the conflict could be expanding (IranWire/Al Arabiya).

Nevertheless, Iran is once again demonstrating a familiar pattern: resilience. According to satellite imagery reviewed by Israeli and Western officials, “Iran has quickly rebuilt infrastructure damaged during the US and Israeli bombing campaign over recent months, from missile bases nestled deep inside mountains to bridges, ports and production facilities.” (Wall Street Journal)

This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Like any country emerging from conflict, the Islamic Republic is repairing damaged infrastructure. It’s also a way of signaling resilience and defiance to its foes.

That said, the human cost remains significant. Data compiled by Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, an independent conflict monitor, found that at least 21 airstrikes damaged civilian infrastructure across Iran in July, including bridges, railways, telecommunication sites, and three water facilities, among them at least one desalination plant supplying drinking water (MSNOW).

Several master’s degree applicants in southern Hormozgan province were unable to sit for their entrance exams because of the destruction of bridges and the closure of transit routes following US strikes (IranWire). Authorities reportedly made no alternative arrangements despite knowing many students couldn’t reach testing centers. Blackouts and water shortages continue to plague parts of the country, driven by a combination of systemic mismanagement and damage authorities attribute to US airstrikes (Al Jazeera). Also, inflation reached nearly 90 percent in June, while food prices rose 134 percent compared with the previous year (Al Jazeera).

Even the little joys are disappearing. Cafés and shops—among the few public spaces where young Iranians hang out to socialize and where many women stopped observing mandatory hijab—are coming under pressure. State media reported that several cafés in Tehran were shuttered for “failure to observe Islamic norms,” while others received warnings or were cited for alleged permit violations and street obstructions (IranWire).

In response to the shutdowns, one young man said:

“Any trace of vibrancy and being alive are nipped in the bud. How many more years of youth and life do we have left to wait for this country to become a normal place to live?” (Al Jazeera)

One Tehran café owner, whose business was closed on July 20, said the pressure had intensified in recent weeks because nightly pro-regime gatherings viewed café culture as incompatible with the atmosphere authorities wanted to create (Iran International). He noted, “One of them [a plainclothes officer] said our city was preparing for the funeral of the leader, yet you are here engaged in pleasure, music, and corruption.”

This week, authorities also removed prominent soccer commentator Adel Ferdosipour’s website, Football 360, after it criticized Team Melli, the Iranian national soccer team, and its head coach. The move left Ferdosipour in tears, as he said during a viral video:

“Why don’t you let people work in this country? How is this possible?.. Your ceiling is so low that you can’t tolerate anything. You have all the media and resources, but you’re so small that you can’t even tolerate a website and an application.” (Instagram)

These individual incidents may appear minor in isolation, but together they reflect a broader pattern of tightening repression, especially as executions continue to accelerate. This week, authorities executed three protesters—26-year-old Mehdi Khanaki, 18-year-old Erfan Esfandiari, and 23-year-old Gol Mohammad Mohammadi, an Afghan national—for their alleged roles in the January anti-regime uprising (RFERL/Al Jazeera/UN). Human rights groups view the executions as an attempt to silence dissent (AFP).

The news was noteworthy enough for President Trump to post on Truth Social a message about Mohammadi’s execution, adding, “The latest one of 52,000, plus, innocent protesters. Savages!!!..” It’s unclear where he got the 52,000 killed number from. It also shows that Trump is willing to invoke human rights when it suits his broader agenda regarding the Islamic Republic.

The United Nations Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran has called on Tehran to immediately halt the surge in protest-related executions unfolding against the backdrop of war, noting that ten more individuals are currently on death row (OHCHR).

In response to the surge in executions—which now total at least 851 since January, according to the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center—prisoners in Ward 2 of Ghezel Hesar Prison in Karaj have been on hunger strike for more than ten days (X/X).

Yet even as war and repression dominate daily life, Iranians have a remarkable ability to find humor in even the bleakest moments. When French luxury brand Dior posted a menswear campaign advertisement on Instagram on July 17, it received more than 88,000 comments, mostly from Iranians joking that the model’s attire and even the lighting looked like something straight out of family photo albums from Iran in the 1980s and 1990s (X/X/X/X). I’ll leave you with some AI-generated viral recreations inspired by that wave of nostalgia:

More soon,

Holly

P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.

I’m in Colorado attending the annual Aspen Security Forum, where Iran was, unsurprisingly, one of the main topics of discussion. (The title of this newsletter is borrowed from a panel title I recommend you watch.) On July 13, US President Donald Trump sent a formal letter to Congress declaring a new Iran war, resetting the 60-day clock that governs the president’s ability to use military force without congressional authorization (Reuters). He also threatened to bomb bridges and power plants if Iranian negotiators didn’t return to the table—a move that would violate international humanitarian law (Fox News).

For the past seven days, southern Iran’s coastline has come under repeated attack, with the port city of Bandar Abbas—the country’s main naval and commercial port overlooking the Strait of Hormuz—the hardest hit. Among the targets were civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities and at least seven bridges, in violation of international humanitarian law (The Guardian). Iranian officials also allege that a railway station, water facilities, food silos, and even residential neighborhoods were struck (Al Jazeera). According to the Iranian Health Ministry, the renewed strikes had killed at least 30 people and wounded more than 400 as of July 17 (The Guardian).

Iran-based activist Sepide Qoliyan wrote on July 15:

“The situation in Sarbandar was terrible last night. Worse than all the days of the previous war. Now it’s Ahvaz :(” (X)

Southern Iran has always endured brutal summer heat. But after days of airstrikes, repeated power outages have left many without air conditioning for hours at a time, turning an already punishing summer into a living hell (IranWire).

Sahar, a high school student in Bandar Abbas, said:

“The room went dead silent, and then the blasts hit. We were terrified. I lost all focus and just wanted to finish and escape. Last night, just as we went to bed, the power went out. It’s 45°C (113°F) outside, and you can’t survive for ten minutes without air conditioning. Before the conflict, we could at least go to the coast for a sea breeze. Now even that is gone.” (IranWire)

Tehran, unsurprisingly, responded in kind, targeting Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar. In Kuwait, a water desalination plant and a power plant were hit (AP). The Trump administration is reportedly sending dozens of additional refueling aircraft to Israel ahead of a possible escalation in military operations against Iran (Axios).

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Trump is also considering a strike on Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried—but incomplete—complex linked to Iran’s nuclear program, though it’s considered a significantly more complex operation than Operation Midnight Hammer (Wall Street Journal). President Trump also renewed his threat to take Kharg Island last week, Iran’s main oil export hub—often referred to as its “crown jewel”—that is five miles long and three miles wide.

40-year old Ali, a boat captain, said:

“It is true they hit the ships, but we are strong on the ground. If needed, we will all take up arms. We are southerners. We have pride. We are used to this.” (The Times)

Meanwhile, former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made headlines once again. The New York Times published new details about Israel’s years-long effort to groom him as a potential future leader of Iran. Haaretz offered a more detailed look at the Israeli rationale for such an unusual plan—and why many Israeli officials were skeptical it could ever succeed.

Separately, on July 15, Dena Karari, a US-Iran dual citizen who has been barred from leaving Iran since 2024 on allegations of espionage and collaborating with a hostile state, was released (CBS News/IranWire).

Going back to the bigger story, I wanted to highlight that news coverage often focuses on Iranians living in major cities and provincial capitals, while the people of southern Iran rarely receive the same level of attention. I’ll leave you with these photos I took on Qeshm Island in 2013 as part of my “Instagramming Iran” series.

More soon,

Holly

P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.

This week, after four months, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—who was killed in an Israeli airstrike sanctioned by the United States on the first day of the war on February 28—was buried. The multi-day funeral procession, which at one point included the coffins of his daughter, daughter-in-law, son-in-law, and granddaughter, who were all killed alongside him, began on July 4 in Tehran before extending to the holy city of Qom, Iraq, and finally his birthplace in the northeastern holy city of Mashhad, where he was laid to rest at the Imam Reza Shrine on July 9 (New York Times). (Read my obituary of him for The Guardian)

What apparently surprised some were the crowds, including President Donald Trump, who was reportedly surprised to see some Iranians crying at the funeral. Trump said he thought people hated Khamenei, adding, “Maybe it’s fake tears.” (Axios)

Iranian officials said they expected between 12 and 15 million visitors over six days of mourning (Financial Times). The Persian-language fact-checking platform Factnameh said that, based on aerial footage of Tehran’s Mosalla mosque, around 300,000 people were present. The mosque, which has remained unfinished for four decades, has become a symbol of the elder Khamenei’s failures (New York Times).

The number of supporters shouldn’t be surprising. The Islamic Republic still enjoys genuine support among its core base—one that has dwindled greatly over the past 47 years. Then there’s the reality that many people are bused to these events or compelled by their employment to attend—something that has historically occurred at pro-regime rallies.

Numerous Western journalists—including from CNN, The Guardian, and The New York Times—and propagandists attended to cover the multi-city procession (X/X/X). Washington Post Director of Press Freedom Initiatives Jason Rezaian raised the question of whether it was worthwhile to cover the event when journalists’ mobility is restricted under an authoritarian regime, while those same journalists were barred from covering the January anti-regime uprising (Substack).

Many senior officials attended the main ceremony, including IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. Among the noticeably absent, however, were former presidents Mohammad Khatami, Hassan Rouhani, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. As CNN wrote, “Their absence cast doubt on Tehran’s ‘unity’ mantra, which has dominated rhetoric throughout Khamenei’s week-long funeral proceedings.” That being said, Ahmadinejad did attend a walking procession on July 6, debunking speculation that he had been killed or was under house arrest (IranWire).

But the person who mattered most was neither seen nor heard from in audio or video: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the heir to his father’s turban. While officials have attributed his absence to fears of assassination, his invisibility has fueled the belief among some that he may not be alive.

Foreign dignitaries from various countries attended, with the highest-ranking being Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan, who played a key role as a mediator between Washington and Tehran (The National). Most other delegations were lower-ranking officials, including from Saudi Arabia.

After the Tehran and Qom procession, Khamenei’s body was taken to Iraq’s Shia holy cities of Najaf, home to the shrine of Imam Ali, the first Imam of Shia Islam, and Karbala, home to the shrine of Imam Hussein (AP). The coffin was escorted by top officials from Tehran, including President Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani (Amwaj.media).

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The timing of the funeral also carried deep symbolism: it took place during Muharram, the holy month when Shia Muslims commemorate Imam Hussein’s martyrdom at the Battle of Karbala. But for Iraqis, the funeral also sparked controversy, especially amid newly elected Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi’s scheduled visit to Washington and his pressure to move away from Tehran (Amwaj.media).

The symbolism matters, nonetheless. As the Financial Times reported:

“It is not unusual for the body of a pious Shia Muslim to be taken to the Najaf shrine before interment. But there is little precedent for a foreign dignitary to be venerated in this way—particularly one so polarising at home and abroad. Najaf and Karbala confer a kind of religious capital that Tehran cannot manufacture on its own. But the regime is seeking to turn the event into a transnational rallying cry, a show of force to demonstrate that despite recent blows landed against Tehran and its network of regional proxies—the so-called axis of resistance—it can still mobilize enormous crowds.”

Tehranis traditionally head north toward the Caspian Sea during religious holidays, and this week was no exception, with heavy traffic on roads leading out of the capital.

For some anti-regime Iranians, the four months of Khamenei’s body remaining in storage represented a form of karmic justice, according to some of their social media posts. Some had been denied the bodies of loved ones killed by security forces or prevented from giving them proper burials after the January massacre.

A 30-year-old man in Tehran:

“Look, if I think deeply about it, then I get angry that they’ve shut down the city for someone who ruined lives. But honestly, I’m at the point where I just don’t care.” (CNN)

Over the week, there were also countless calls for revenge for Khamenei’s death. Iranians carried a long red banner over their heads that read “We will kill Trump” in Persian and English (Financial Times). Others chanted “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” (X/) A Lego effigy of Trump was even set ablaze (X).

The hardline Kayhan newspaper, which was/is considered the mouthpiece of the Supreme Leader, published a piece titled “We Want Trump’s Head” and offered a $100 million bounty for assassinating the US president in retaliation for the 2020 US drone strike that killed IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani.

Calls to kill Trump were a recurring theme throughout the funeral, including banners featuring bullseyes on far-right activists, and even Senator Lindsey Graham, who responded: “At least they used a good photo of me. Judge me by my enemies.” (X) Not surprisingly, Israel shared new intelligence with the United States indicating a fresh Iranian plot to assassinate the US president (Wall Street Journal). Trump said, “They want to take out the US leader—me. I’m on every list. I saw this morning, I’m on every single one of their lists. And so far, I guess I’ve been a little bit lucky, but that maybe doesn’t last very long.”

One source told CNN the Israeli warning related to a specific plot identified this week, while another source said the US had picked up intelligence in recent weeks. However, “other American officials suggested the Israeli report could be an effort to sway Trump’s decision-making as he weighs whether to intensify American military action against Iran.” (CNN)

All of this unfolded amid continued tit-for-tat strikes between Washington and Tehran (New York Times). Following Iranian strikes on July 8, Trump said:

“They’re scum. They’re sick people. They’re led by sick people, and they’re vicious, violent people. Far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them. They’re liars … there’s something wrong with them. They’re cuckoo. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over (referring to the Memorandum of Understanding). They can talk, but I think they’re wasting their time. They’re a bunch of lying guys. They’re bad people, and frankly, I don’t want to waste my time with them. Now, I’ll let our wonderful negotiators keep talking if they want, but I don’t see it.” (Washington Post)

That said, technical talks remain ongoing, according to a US official (CNBC).

Meanwhile, anti-regime Iranians had the January massacre mostly on their mind as July 8-9 marked its sixth-month anniversary. One viral video showed a wedding where a bride honored the memories of those who were killed—people who would never get the chance to experience their own special day (X).

I’ll leave you with this music video (with English subtitles) by Iran-based dissident rapper Toomaj Salehi, released with the contemporary folk music ensemble Rastak, about the massacre and how the embers of change continue to burn…

More soon,

Holly

P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.

Today is a World Cup knockout-round match for Team Melli—the Iranian national team—and they’re facing Egypt on Pride Day in Seattle, Washington (11 pm EST).

Both countries, where homosexuality remains criminalized, had reportedly complained to FIFA about the LGBTQ+ events planned around the match and requested that they be canceled, but thos…

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It’s been an incredibly busy week. While I’d hoped to dedicate part of this newsletter to Team Melli, the Iranian national soccer team, and its participation in the World Cup, the memorandum of understanding (MOU) ended up taking both the spotlight—and much of my bandwidth.

If you haven’t read the MOU signed by US President Donald Trump and …

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There was quite a bit of whiplash this week. Journalist Michael Weiss put it best (X):

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Salam reader,

It appears no final determination was made in the Situation Room on May 29. According to the New York Times, President Donald Trump was “concerned about parts of the potential deal that would include unfreezing …

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Apologies for the unexpected midweek note! I wanted to reach out because some readers have reported The Iranist landing in their spam folder—and I don’t want you to miss a thing.

A few quick fixes from Substack:

• If the newsletter is in the Spam or Promotions folder, make sure to “mark as not spam” in your email client and move it to your Inb…

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It turns out a deal was made—well, not quite. What emerged was a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which is still being finalized ahead of more substantial negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, US sanctions, and a formal bid to end the war (AP). Nevertheless, the Islamic Republic spent much of the week declaring victory over the United…

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“Guess who’s back, back again?” Well, not quite. He’s back in the news: former hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He was reportedly “someone from within” whom the Israelis had in mind to take over in Tehran (New York Times). I first came across a variation of this wild story in The Atlantic at the start of the Iran war. Ahmadinejad was…

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Salam reader,

The number of executions in Iran is continuing to rise. Among those hanged this week was Erfan Shakourzadeh, 29, a top-ranking master’s student in aerospace engineering at the prestigious Iran University of Science and Technology. An Iranian-Ame…

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Iranian Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi, 54, is “between life and death” and may die, according to her supporters (The Guardian). Mohammadi suffered two suspected heart attacks on March 24 and May 1 while imprisoned in northern Zanjan prison and was intially denied both medical treatment and a visit to her cardiologist (she is now getting t…

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Coffee shops have remained open during the war, bringing solace and a sense of normalcy to some amid uncertain times in Iran (New York Times). But between the images of those ordinary moments of day-to-day life, pro-regime women carrying pink Kalashnikovs, and flag-waving pro-regime rallies, the narrative the Islamic Republic is constructin…

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Apparently, the ceasefire is indefinite, at least according to President Donald Trump (CBS News). Since the war began, the president has extended deadlines five times (CNN). That helps explain why the Iranians haven’t conceded to his terms: they appear to be counting on him to blink first—which, arguably, he already has on numerous occasion…

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For those of us with friends and family in Iran, it’s been a difficult time—not just because of the war, but because of the country’s fifth state-imposed internet shutdown, which began on February 28 and is now the longest globally (X). Rarely do the single check marks on messaging apps like WhatsApp turn into two. Sometimes messages come t…

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Salam reader,

I had been noting how sentiments among Iranians could shift with the targeting of civilian infrastructure. And sure enough, a threat heard around the world from President Donald Trump via social media—“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back…

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If you’re like me and spend any time on social media, you’ve probably noticed that the Islamic Republic’s meme game is unusually strong right now. Since the war began, a collection of AI-generated animations done in the style of The Lego Movie franchise has gone viral (CNBC). The account behind it, Akhbar Enfejari (“Explosive News”), has ha…

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Tomorrow marks one month since the Iran war began. It remains difficult to predict where things will go from here, but one point is clear: the United States can’t realistically end the war without securing the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes. That being said, President Donald Trump is repo…

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Happy Nowruz (Iranian New Year)! I initially felt guilty about setting up my haft seen table (“seven S’s”) at home, but images of Iranians shopping for Nowruz during the war reminded me that they are still living—and we must honor that (X/X/X).

Earlier in the week was Chaharshanbeh Soori, the eve of the last Wednesday of the Iranian calenda…

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Scenes from Tehran earlier this week made the capital look like something out of an apocalyptic film—or as one Iranian social media user’s now-deleted post described, Mordor from The Lord of the Rings (X/X/X). Israeli air strikes targeted oil depots in the capital, to the dismay of Iranians across the political spectrum—and even some Iran h…

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