There was quite a bit of whiplash this week. Journalist Michael Weiss put it best (X):

For weeks, we’ve been hearing about talks and an imminent deal (X). June 11 was perhaps the most dizzying day of an already chaotic news cycle. It began with another exchange of US-Iran strikes, the third time this week that tit-for-tat strikes shook the Middle East and brought fears of another all-out war (AP).

President Donald Trump initially declared:

“The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT. At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela…” (Truth Social)

Yet just hours later, the president called off the planned strikes. He posted on Truth Social:

“Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others. The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized—Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly…”

Apparently, Pakistan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates called the US president and persuaded him to change course (Politico). However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil ​Baghaei said that Tehran hadn’t made a final decision and wouldn’t compromise on ​its “red lines” in negotiations (Reuters).

That said, Mehr News Agency published what it claimed were draft details of a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU):

1. A permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon

2. A US commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect its sovereignty

3. The complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days

4. A US commitment to withdraw its forces from regions surrounding Iran

5. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements

6. The suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products, and their derivatives, along with full Iranian access to the resulting revenues

7. A requirement that the United States and its allies provide plans for Iran’s reconstruction totaling at least $300 billion

8. Sixty days of negotiations to reach a final agreement focused on nuclear issues and the complete removal of US primary and secondary sanctions, as well as sanctions imposed through United Nations Security Council resolutions and resolutions of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors

9. Iran’s reaffirmation of its commitment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to produce nuclear weapons

10. During the negotiation period, the United States commits not to increase its military forces in the region or impose new sanctions

11. The release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the 60-day final negotiation period; half of this amount ($12 billion) must be made available to Iran before negotiations begin

12. The establishment of a monitoring mechanism to ensure implementation of the agreement

13. Endorsement of the final agreement through a United Nations Security Council resolution

14. Final negotiations will not begin until half of Iran’s frozen funds have been released, oil sanctions have been suspended, and the naval blockade has been lifted. The final agreement will focus exclusively on: The fate of enriched nuclear material and uranium enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and plans to rebuild Iran’s economy

Discussions regarding Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for proxies have been definitively excluded from the agenda.

If this draft text is to be believed, the war has left the US negotiating position in a worse place than before the conflict began.

The president quickly pushed back in another Truth Social post:

“The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing. What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith…”

A senior Trump administration official outlined what was said to be the US version of the MOU (X):

1. Nuclear material will be destroyed and removed

2. Nuclear program will be dismantled

3. None of Iran’s money released until they perform

4. Strait of Hormuz will be open

5. No funding of terrorist groups

The two drafts couldn’t be further apart. Yet regardless of what the final text says, the MOU is likely to be signed early next week, potentially on the sidelines of the Group of Seven (G7) leaders’ summit, according to senior officials (Bloomberg/CBS News). If that happens, it would give Tehran international credibility. The signing would then trigger a 60-day period to hammer out the details of a US-Iran agreement.

Iran policy by tweet is exhausting to follow here in the West, but just imagine what it’s been like for ordinary Iranians. Since the tit-for-tat strikes began on June 7, following Iran’s attack on Israel over Lebanon, reactions among anti-regime Iranians have been mixed.

Much of my Persian language Twitter feed was filled with young Iranians inside the country understandably upset about their horrible circumstances, cursing at Trump (whether for starting or stopping the war) or at the Islamic Republic. Many resorted to dark humor, memes, and jokes to cope with the uncertainty. In real life, those who could afford to, fled the capital, Tehran, after hearing Trump’s latest threats on June 11 (New York Times).

Here’s what some young Iranians had to say:

“What a regular routine, we have a war every other night.” (X)

“Please don’t start a war I don’t want to be unemployed for another 3 months” (X)

“Guys, I’ve completely lost hope in everything now. Hope in Iran, in my career prospects and financial situation, in my love life, and in life.” (X)

“I wish I’d die before the sounds of fighter jets and bombings return. I’m scared and I just can’t handle their war and war games anymore.” (X)

One Iranian managed to find humor even in despair:

“I’m against war for now because I can’t accept that I’ve seen three wars and in all three I’ve been single.” (X)

With the internet partially back on, Instagram content has been flowing again. Unsurprisingly, Iranian content creators have been poking fun at the tit-for-tat strikes and the ceasefire (X/X).

Yet one fear appeared more frequently than any other on my feed: the prospect of another state-imposed internet shutdown. Here’s what some wrote:

“I’m ‘another internet shutdown in Iran’ away from a psychiatric hospital.” (X)

“I’m not afraid of missiles, I’m afraid of going offline.” (X)

“I’m scared to sleep and wake up in the morning to no internet.” (X)

Some Iranians couldn’t resist making light of the situation:

“Now is the best time to use the excuse of the internet shutdown to get that pretty girl’s number.” (X)

“I said to my friend in Iran what are you doing? He said, ‘Downloading and saving p*rn.’” (X)

With the downward spiral of the economy and the Islamic Republic still firmly in power, the war has shattered what remained of many Iranians’ hopes for a better future.

Majid, a 27-year-old computer engineer who was laid off during the war, summed up the mood:

“It’s the same news almost everywhere. No jobs and massively increased prices. It basically means we are f*cked.” (The Atlantic)

More soon,

Holly

P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.

Salam reader,

It appears no final determination was made in the Situation Room on May 29. According to the New York Times, President Donald Trump was “concerned about parts of the potential deal that would include unfreezing funds for the Iranians” and “has also been frustrated by how long it has taken for Iran to respond to US proposals.” There are reportedly no discussions regarding the six Americans detained in Iran (CBS News). The current plan appears to be to first secure a memorandum of understanding (MOU), with the hostages addressed on a separate track afterward. There is also another complication: the ongoing skirmishes between the United States and Iran (Wall Street Journal/Reuters). That said, they don’t appear to be affecting the talks—for now. US Central Command (CENTCOM) has described the tenuous ceasefire as “ongoing.”

Asked whether he would be open to meeting Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, President Trump responded:

“If I did meet with the new Ayatollah, I would be honored to meet him. I would say I’m not his favorite person, but with that being said, he’s probably a pro—I don’t know him—he’s probably a professional in some circles, he has a very good reputation actually, you know, sometimes when people say bad, but a lot of people say bad about me. It’s totally false, of course.” (X)

His comments were inevitable. The US president has spoken in similarly complimentary terms about Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Still, the whiplash has been jarring, particularly for anti-regime Iranians who placed their faith in the United States after the early rhetoric about regime change at the beginning of the war.

One resident of Tehran put it bluntly:

“Was it all for nothing? So many lives were lost. We were willing to die for our freedom - but it turns out that we were played by both governments. All for a few barrels of cheaper oil and gas.” (Daily Mail)

According to US and Iranian officials, one of the remaining sticking points centers on financial compensation. (CNN). Tehran has communicated that some form of compensation be included in the agreement. Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to the Supreme Leader, has claimed Iran is seeking access to $24 billion in frozen assets: $12 billion to be released upon signing the MOU and another $12 billion at a later stage (CNN). Rezaei said, “The negotiations are at a deadlock and [President Donald] Trump must break this deadlock. The ball is in Trump’s court.”

Meanwhile, Iran’s economy continues to worsen. This week, the Central Bank of Iran reported that the consumer price index reached 77.2 percent, while inflation in daily necessities rose 113.8 percent compared to May of last year (AP). A private Iranian economic think tank described the figures as “an unprecedented rate since World War II.”

It’s easy to see why Tehran is seeking access to its frozen funds. Yet given the Islamic Republic’s long record of systemic corruption and mismanagement, there is little reason to believe that ordinary Iranians would experience a trickle-down economic effect that would significantly improve their lives.

Now with the internet partially restored, more testimonies from political prisoners and journalists of the brutal post-war crackdown are starting to trickle out (The Guardian). Journalist Vida Rabbani spoke of the sexual assault and repeated beatings she endured while imprisoned for signing a statement condemning the massacre of anti-regime protesters in January and calling for an end to the Islamic Republic. She said, “They have a way to torture you without leaving a visible trace. But now I can’t sleep and have to take antidepressants and sleeping pills.”

Amnesty International warned that “Iranian authorities are using the cover of what they call ‘wartime conditions’ to intensify their repression of dissent through mass arbitrary arrests, accelerated grossly unfair judicial proceedings, politically motivated executions, harsh prison sentences, and asset confiscations.” Among those targeted this week was Masoud Payahoo, the man who recorded the viral video of Iran’s “Tank Man” during the December-January protests. He was sentenced to ten years in prison on allegations of cooperating with Israel (Iran International). There have been at least 41 politically motivated executions since the war began on February 28 (X). Among those executed were Mehrdad Mohammadinia and Ashkan Maleki, two individuals arrested during the January protests who were hanged on June 1 (Instagram).

Separate from the situation with Iran, I’ve been thinking about the legacy of French-Iranian cartoonist and filmmaker Marjane Satrapi, 56, who passed away this week (New York Times). A tireless advocate for the Iranian people and author of the acclaimed graphic novel “Persepolis,” Satrapi’s work has become the subject of renewed debate online, with some critics labeling it “Orientalist.”

Nahid Siamdoust, assistant professor of media and Middle Eastern studies at the University of Texas at Austin, pushed back on that characterization, arguing that the critique itself is Orientalist “because it doesn’t afford Iranians—or an Iranian like her—the right to represent herself freely of those kinds of considerations, of that Western gaze.” (New Lines Magazine) She noted that “Satrapi spoke very much from her own personal experience. But it also was representative of the experience of so many Iranians.”

If you haven’t seen the Oscar-nominated animated film “Persepolis,” I highly recommend it—or better yet, read the graphic novel. Satrapi also authored several other outstanding works, including one inspired by the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom uprising.

I’ll leave you with one of her most memorable observations:

“…The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don’t know each other, but we talk together and we understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.” (Good Reads)

(Don’t take that last line too literally.)

More soon,

Holly

P.S. Feel free to follow me on X for real-time updates and on LinkedIn, where I’ve been sharing additional interviews and commentary.

Apologies for the unexpected midweek note! I wanted to reach out because some readers have reported The Iranist landing in their spam folder—and I don’t want you to miss a thing.

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Thanks for being a loyal reader! It means the world. ☺️

Merci,

Holly

It turns out a deal was made—well, not quite. What emerged was a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which is still being finalized ahead of more substantial negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, US sanctions, and a formal bid to end the war (AP). Nevertheless, the Islamic Republic spent much of the week declaring victory over the United…

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“Guess who’s back, back again?” Well, not quite. He’s back in the news: former hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He was reportedly “someone from within” whom the Israelis had in mind to take over in Tehran (New York Times). I first came across a variation of this wild story in The Atlantic at the start of the Iran war. Ahmadinejad was…

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Salam reader,

The number of executions in Iran is continuing to rise. Among those hanged this week was Erfan Shakourzadeh, 29, a top-ranking master’s student in aerospace engineering at the prestigious Iran University of Science and Technology. An Iranian-Ame…

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Iranian Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi, 54, is “between life and death” and may die, according to her supporters (The Guardian). Mohammadi suffered two suspected heart attacks on March 24 and May 1 while imprisoned in northern Zanjan prison and was intially denied both medical treatment and a visit to her cardiologist (she is now getting t…

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Coffee shops have remained open during the war, bringing solace and a sense of normalcy to some amid uncertain times in Iran (New York Times). But between the images of those ordinary moments of day-to-day life, pro-regime women carrying pink Kalashnikovs, and flag-waving pro-regime rallies, the narrative the Islamic Republic is constructin…

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Apparently, the ceasefire is indefinite, at least according to President Donald Trump (CBS News). Since the war began, the president has extended deadlines five times (CNN). That helps explain why the Iranians haven’t conceded to his terms: they appear to be counting on him to blink first—which, arguably, he already has on numerous occasion…

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For those of us with friends and family in Iran, it’s been a difficult time—not just because of the war, but because of the country’s fifth state-imposed internet shutdown, which began on February 28 and is now the longest globally (X). Rarely do the single check marks on messaging apps like WhatsApp turn into two. Sometimes messages come t…

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Salam reader,

I had been noting how sentiments among Iranians could shift with the targeting of civilian infrastructure. And sure enough, a threat heard around the world from President Donald Trump via social media—“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back…

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If you’re like me and spend any time on social media, you’ve probably noticed that the Islamic Republic’s meme game is unusually strong right now. Since the war began, a collection of AI-generated animations done in the style of The Lego Movie franchise has gone viral (CNBC). The account behind it, Akhbar Enfejari (“Explosive News”), has ha…

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Tomorrow marks one month since the Iran war began. It remains difficult to predict where things will go from here, but one point is clear: the United States can’t realistically end the war without securing the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes. That being said, President Donald Trump is repo…

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Happy Nowruz (Iranian New Year)! I initially felt guilty about setting up my haft seen table (“seven S’s”) at home, but images of Iranians shopping for Nowruz during the war reminded me that they are still living—and we must honor that (X/X/X).

Earlier in the week was Chaharshanbeh Soori, the eve of the last Wednesday of the Iranian calenda…

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On February 28, I woke up to news of the war and felt a mix of emotions. Many of us Iranians in the diaspora and even inside the country were still trying to process the unprecedented massacre in January.

Numerous videos posted online showed some Iranians celebrating the initial strikes (X/X/X/X/X). The fact that these people were celebrati…

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۱/1 The kids are alright

On February 21, the first day of the new semester, students at universities in various parts of Iran, including the capital, Tehran, began anti-regime protests (ABC News). Videos circulating online show clashes on campuses at more than half a dozen universities, including at Tehran’s Sharif…

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THE هفت‌/SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW THIS WEEK:

۱/1 The drum beats of war

On February 13, President Donald Trump said regime change in Iran is “the best thing that could happen. For 47 years,…

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I wanted to wait until more details emerged from the Oman talks before writing this update, hence the delay. Earlier this week, Iranian officials dictated not only the location and format, but also the scope of the discussions—and got what they wanted, despite an “armada,” in President Donald Trump’s words, waiting in the Persian Gulf. I’ve…

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